The Republic's writers explain what Suns must do to win Game 1 vs. Nuggets
The No. 4-seeded Phoenix Suns and No. 1-seeded Denver Nuggets begin their Western Conference semifinal playoff series on Saturday in Denver (time TBD). The Republic writers who have been covering the NBA playoffs offer their takes below on what Phoenix must do to steal Game 1:
It'll take more than Devin and Kevin to get past Denver
The Suns are going to need more than just Devin Booker and Kevin Durant to beat the Denver Nuggets.
Denver is one of the few teams that can match Phoenix’s star power, boasting offensive weapons like Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Assume each team’s dynamic duo cancels out the other, and the series will pivot on whether Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton can outplay Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon.
Neither the Suns nor the Nuggets go especially deep into their bench. And neither team spent much time fooling around with their first-round opponent. (The Suns eliminated the Clippers in five. The Nuggets got rid of the Timberwolves in the same number of games.)
The Nuggets have the advantage in having been together longer as a group, but it’s been rare that they’ve been at full strength. Murray and Porter have had lots of injury problems in their careers.
The Suns are still learning how to play together, but they’ve got only one loss with Durant in the lineup. They got out of the first round leaning on Devin and Kevin, but it’ll take more than that for them to beat Denver.
Paul, Ayton and the rest of the guys will have to get in on the show for the Suns to advance to the Western Conference finals for the second time in three years.
-- Greg Moore
Attack Nuggets in the paint, mid-range
Denver being the West’s top seed doesn’t speak for its defense in the mid-range and the paint, and Phoenix is among the best teams in both those areas.
In this postseason, Phoenix is the league’s most efficient mid-range shooting team averaging 49.6% on 11.6 made per game, ranked second with 11.6 shots made in the paint and fourth with 50.4% shooting in the non-restricted area. During the regular season, Phoenix finished second and third in those areas of the floor.
Denver’s current postseason ranking is fifth at 105.4 in points allowed, but nearly half of those points have come in the paint (48.8) and they are at 10th in that category among the 16 playoff teams. Denver was even worse at 21st allowing 52.5 points in the paint before the playoffs began.
The most recent example of Denver’s lack of rim protection was the series-closing Game 5 against Minnesota. Denver let Minnesota get 32 of its 47 points near the basket, and outscored Denver 32-18 on points in the paint.
Phoenix’s offense has a smorgasbord for mid-range shooting weapons and rim pressure with Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Torrey Craig, Josh Okogie, Bismack Biyombo, Jock Landale, and Cameron Payne to exploit this.
-- Dana Scott
More: Kevin Durant praises Devin Booker's 'spiritual' third quarter, but bench questions linger for Suns
Win the free throw battle with Durant – and Ayton?
Don’t read anything into the 2-2 regular season split.
Booker injured his groin early in the Christmas game and didn’t play in the rematch in Denver.
Phoenix lost both games.
The Nuggets rested all five of their starters in the final matchup after sitting four in the third meeting.
Denver lost both of those.
Neither team got to the line much in the regular season. The Suns were 27th in the league in attempts at 21.7 while the Nuggets finished 24th and 22.4.
Denver has stayed pretty much status quo in the playoffs at 21.8, but Phoenix has risen up to 28.8 to rank first in the league in free throw attempts per game through Tuesday’s games.
Enter Durant.
He averaged nine of those free throw attempts while Devin Booker averaged seven attempts.
Suns coach Monty Williams has said the physical nature in which teams defend Durant frustrated the superstar, especially when he’s not getting the calls.
Look for Aaron Gordon to defend him and bring that physicality. Durant must play through that and get to the line to help the Suns win the free throw battle.
He could use some help from Deandre Ayton in that area, too, but not with just attempts.
Look, Ayton doesn’t get to the line. He’s averaging 2.6 attempts in his career, a career-best three this season and averaged 3.6 in the postseason so far. If he can double that number to say seven or eight, that’ll lead to two things.
One, he’s being aggressive and two, he’s gotten two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokic in foul trouble.
If the Suns come out on the right end of that free throw battle, they’ll win this series.
If not, not good.
-- Duane Rankin
More: Here's Phoenix Suns' Western Conference semifinals schedule against Denver Nuggets
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: What must Suns do to win Game 1 vs. Nuggets? Here's what The Republic's writers say
