Regression Files: Week 6
The Packers were screaming regression candidates coming into Week 5. If you stepped outside late at night and listened over the chirp of crickets, you could hear it: The scream of a team falling ingloriously back to earth after scoring touchdowns in decidedly unsustainable ways.
None of Jordan Love’s underlying metrics described a quarterback who could maintain a sky-high touchdown rate. Love got away with it bigly in September, as I mentioned here a time or three. Romeo Doubs’ short touchdown receptions painted over otherwise ugly opportunity numbers. Green Bay’s rushing offense could be generously described as sputtering. Eventually, the Packers were not going to Get Away With It. And against the Raiders on Monday night, they did not get away with anything, delivering catastrophic fantasy outings for folks who have come to rely on Green Bay players running hot and staying hot.
The Regression Files isn't only about spotting overperforming teams. We want to know who's been on the wrong side of touchdown volatility. Because I strive to make this space at least somewhat actionable for fantasy managers determined to look ahead, below are some teams who seem to be underperforming after five weeks.
LA Rams: They’re ninth in expected points added (EPA) per play but 16th in points per game. Their touch touchdown luck is best reflected in Matthew Stafford’s unfathomably low TD rate. With Cooper Kupp back in action, the Rams should start converting good peripheral numbers into actual points. I will say the Rams having the fourth highest EPA on third and fourth downs suggests Sean McVay's offense has gotten away with it quite a bit over five weeks.
Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Gannon’s dawgs are a respectable — and borderline unthinkable — 12th in EPA and 15th in offensive success rate per play through Week 5. Josh Dobbs and the offense has been excellent on early downs; only ten teams have a higher EPA on first and second down. But the Cards 19th in points per game. Perhaps Kyler Murray under center would catapult this scrappy Zona offense into elite territory — or something akin to it.
Tampa Bay Bucs: Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are, quite shockingly, tenth in EPA per play. They are 20th in points, having scored a touchdown on just half of their red zone possessions. More solid-enough play from Mayfield and the Bucs offense could supply fantasy managers with more production than anyone could have foreseen in August. One note on the Bucs: They lead the NFL in EPA on third and fourth downs while struggling on early downs. That could portend less-than-great things for the offense.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Birds’ EPA and actual points are in alignment but Jalen Hurts and company are running ice cold in the red zone. They’ve scored a TD on 42 percent of their red zone possessions even with the unstoppable tush push. Only five teams have a lower red zone TD rate. If the Eagles figure things out near the goal line, this offense is going to pour on the points. My best ball teams hope so, anyway.
Seattle Seahawks: The Hawks have largely carried over their 2022 offensive success into 2023, and they've done so while being utterly miserable on third and fourth down, logging the league's second lowest third/fourth down EPA. On early downs, Seattle is third in EPA per play, behind the Niners and Dolphins. Overall, they're seventh (and fourth in offensive success rate). Better days should be ahead for Geno and company if that third/fourth down EPA normalizes.
Spotting guys who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance — because “luck” is so crass — can help us with waiver wire additions, start-sits, and sneaky DFS plays, if you’re into that sort of thing.
Regression Candidates (The Good Kind)
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson (BAL)
If the Ravens’ pass catchers hadn’t slathered their hands with canola oil before the team’s Week 5 loss to the Steelers, Jackson would have had a fat stat line against Pittsburgh. Seven Ravens drops cost Jackson a bunch of yards and two touchdowns. We can only hope John Harbaugh bans the use of canola oil in the Baltimore locker room.
Through Week 5, Jackson’s touchdown rate sits at a paltry 2.8 percent, which ranks 25th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks. Lamar’s career TD rate is 5.9 percent; he was at 5.2 percent just last year with a far worse cast of pass catchers at his disposal. The Ravens aren’t exactly ultra conservative when they breach the green zone (inside the ten yard line): Only nine QBs have more inside-the-10 pass attempts than Jackson this season. Baltimore through Week 5 are last in red zone touchdown conversion rate (25 percent). Something has to give.
With a little luck and less canola oil on his teammates’ gloves, Lamar’s touchdown production should soon bounce back.
Dak Prescott (DAL)
Prescott drafters, I’m asking you to stop eating your beef and cheddar behind the Arby’s dumpster and consider the following: Your guy is leading the NFL with 32 red zone pass attempts. Only two quarterbacks have more green zone throws.
This has all led to (almost) nothing for Prescott in the down-nightmarishly-bad Dallas offense. He has five touchdowns on 160 attempts (3.1 percent). Probably a major touchdown correction is going to require a reset by Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys offense. The team is dead dog last in average depth of target (5.6) and has been among the more run-heavy offenses in the NFL, with a -3.6 percent pass rate over expected. The whole thing is a mess. But at least Dak theoretically has good weapons with which to work.
Matthew Stafford (LAR)
Last week’s Regression Files cover guy is back and better than ever. Stafford managed a couple of touchdown tosses in Week 5 against the Eagles and missed a couple throws that could have been long scores in the Rams’ listless loss.
Stafford’s touchdown rate (2.5 percent) remains abysmally low and will jump in the coming weeks. The LA passing attack is begging to be cut loose with the addition of the somehow-unguardable Cooper Kupp.
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Running Back
Joe Mixon (CIN)
All of Mixon’s efficiency metrics are off-the-charts bad — hardly a shock considering Mixon, by every indication, has been washed for three years now.
He’s still getting solid workloads though, and that’s all that matters for our purposes. With game script on his side against the Cardinals in Week 5, Mixon carried the ball 25 times for 81 yards and caught all four of his targets. We’ll take 29 touches and hope Mixon can one day produce with them.
The Bengals getting back to their pass-first roots — they were a stunning 12 percent above their expected pass rate against Arizona — could open up more targets for Mixon too. This worked out quite well for Washed Mixon in 2022, when he blew away his previous target high with 75 in 14 games.
Mixon’s getting the ball in high-value situations because the Bengals have decided not to roster a good running back and instead lean on Mixon. He has ten rushes inside the ten yard line this season, the fifth most among running backs. He has zero touchdowns on those carries. Only Ken Walker, Christian McCaffrey, and David Montgomery have more inside-the-five rushing attempts than Mixon. When those start going for six — if they start going for six — Mixon will have something of a fantasy ceiling.
Dameon Pierce (HOU)
I’ve said it before and I will continue to say it as long as it is constitutionally allowed: It doesn’t matter if a running back is good; NFL coaches will play a running back even if he’s bad.
Enter Pierce, who is seeing numerous workloads in games with neutral and positive game script. In fact, Pierce’s 58 rushes over the past three weeks rank third among all running backs. His 178 rushing yards ranks 19th. Scanning Pierce’s rushing metrics are sheer torture (he’s 43rd out of 49 qualifying RBs in rush yards after contact per carry, for one eye-bleeding example).
The upshot for Pierce drafters is that the Texans, despite a bunch of pass attempts for C.J. Stroud over five games, want to be run heavy. Houston has the fifth lowest pass rate over expected. In two of the past three games, they’ve been well below their expected pass rate while protecting leads. That means Pierce, dominating backfield touches, will continue being fed in such circumstances. That he’s the only game in town for the Texans inside the ten yard line should translate to touchdowns. We’ll take it, even if the rushing production remains muted.
Rachaad White (TB)
It’s possible White is just not very good. His peripheral numbers were hideous in 2022 and they haven’t budged in 2023. White is 28th in PFF’s elusive rating and doesn’t have a single rush of more than 15 yards on 63 carries through Week 4.His rushing success rate is in line with Justice Hill and Joshua Kelley. It’s been bad.
Thankfully, for those who drafted White, none of this matters. He continues working as the Bucs’ lead back because, well, Sean Tucker and Ke’Shawn Vaughn are two of the only NFL backs worse than White. If he keeps getting a solid workload — White has at least 15 rushes in each of Tampa’s four games — he should eventually deliver less-dismal production for fantasy managers. And his pass-catching role is intact: Only three backs have run more pass routes than White, who has the ninth most catches (13) among running backs.
White ranks eighth in the league with seven rushing attempts inside the ten yards line this season and sixth in red zone carries. That’s amounted to a single touchdown. A solidified role in a Bucs offense that will see more neutral and positive game script than anyone expected entering the season should make White a weekly RB2, even if he remains bad.
Wide Receiver
Josh Palmer (LAC)
Am I squirming while including the historically-inefficient Palmer in the Regression Files. I am. I’m squirming so hard. I’m burning calories, which is nice.
Palmer, in his first game as LA’s No. 2 wideout following Mike Williams’ season-ending ACL injury, caught three of eight targets for 77 scoreless yards against the Raiders. Most of his production came on a fourth quarter 51-yard grab to ice the game. It was hardly what folks were looking for after going hog wild to acquire Palmer off the wire (in your league, Palmer was drafted before Calvin Ridley, I know).
Here’s my attempt to make you feel a little less bad about Palmer: He led the Chargers with a 49.5 percent air yards share, the eighth most among all NFL wideouts in Week 4, and he was targeted on a studly 30 percent of his pass routes. There’s also this surprising little nugget: Palmer led the Chargers with a 35.6 percent first-read target share. That ranked top-12 on the week league wide. Palmer’s role and LA’s pass heaviness (seventh in pass rate over expected) should buoy his fantasy production, even if Palmer doesn’t magically become hyper efficient.
Michael Pittman (IND)
Pittman will drop on and off this portion of the Regression Files depending on who’s under center for the Colts. Anthony Richardson, who could miss more than a month with a shoulder injury, crushes the volume Pittman requires to pass as a top-24 fantasy option, whereas the pocket-inhabiting Garnder Minshew can fuel target volume for Pittman and Josh Downs.
Both Pittman and Downs become massively interesting for PPR purposes if Minshew takes over as the team’s long-term starter. After a couple quiet outings, Pittman should be in for double digit looks until further notice. His 34.2 percent first-read target rate is the 11th highest among receivers this season and his 41 first-read targets is a top-7 mark among wideouts. If (or when) Pittman’s yards per route run catches up to his career YPRR, watch out. Keep him in your lineup this week against Jacksonville. Maybe you don’t need me to tell you that.
Jonathan Mingo (CAR)
A guy like Mingo, seeing decent targets in a bad offense with an inaccurate quarterback, is going to show up a lot in the Regression Files. Maybe this goes without saying.
From Week 1-3, Mingo had a 27 percent air yards share in the Panthers offense, with a healthy 12.5 air yards per target. Most recently Mingo saw 23 percent of Carolina’s air yards in their Week 5 thrashing at the hands of the Lions. On the season, his air yards are comparable to CeeDee Lamb and DK Metcalf.
It’s all been for naught, unfortunately: The Rookie has 13 catches on 26 targets for 112 scoreless yards in four games. That’s thanks largely to Mingo sporting the league’s lowest rate of catchable targets (53 percent). Only Tee Higgins has a lower air yards conversion rate.
Mingo should be useful as a WR3 with some upside if Bryce Young improves — a Big If — and if Mingo continues with a halfway decent route share.
Tight End
David Njoku (CLE)
You’re probably scrambling for a waiver wire replacement if you drafted Njoku and suffered through a month of fleetingly little production from the freakish tight end.
But things aren’t quite as bleak as they seem for Njoku. His 73 percent route participation rate ranks 11th among all tight ends and his 2023 yard per route run is a touch low compared to his career rate. The nature of Njoku’s targets have been less than ideal: His 3.2 average depth of target pales in comparison to his career aDOT of 8.6. Njoku is 43rd in tight end air yards despite being top-15 in tight end pass routes.
The hope is that Njoku will stop being used exclusively near the line of scrimmage. And there is reason to think the Browns are ready to do just that, as Njoku’s 6 aDOT in Week 4 was by far his highest of the season. Be sure to monitor Njoku’s practice participation as he recovers from facial and arm burns.
Regression Candidates (The Bad Kind)
Quarterback
Joshua Dobbs (ARI)
I want very much to tell you Dobbs, with all that dawg in him, can keep it going as Arizona’s starter. And maybe from a real football perspective he can, but his fantasy production is setting off the regression alarms over the past few weeks. I take no pleasure in reporting this.
Dobbs has thrown four touchdowns on five green zone passes this season. Even with that inside-the-ten success, Dobbs’ touchdowns rate is just 3.9 percent, 15th among 33 qualifying quarterbacks.
Dobbs hasn’t been terribly inaccurate this season. He’s 20th in completion rate over expected and he’s an astounding fourth in on-target rate (75 percent), on par with Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes (yes, I’m saying Dobbs is the same as Mahomes).
I’m not, however, discounting Dobbs from being a fantasy option in most formats. The Cardinals have proven surprisingly pass heavy in many situations through Week 5: They’re passing the ball on 64 percent of their plays when they’re trailing by 4-8 points and at 76.8 percent when trailing by 9-16 points. As bad as Arizona’s defense has been, Dobbs and the Cards offense will be chasing points more often than not.
Kirk Cousins (MIN)
Cousins has thrown eight touchdowns on 19 inside-the-10 attempts this season. That, many are saying, is the definition of running hot, and may be related to targeting the game’s most dominant pass catcher relentlessly near the goal line.
Without Justin Jefferson — who will miss at least four weeks with a hamstring injury — Cousins’ green zone touchdown production is (almost) sure to drop, if not outright tank. Minnesota, third in the NFL in pass rate over expected, should continue pumping out pass volume with Jefferson on the shelf. That might be enough to buoy Cousins and make him startable in 12-team formats. Green zone touchdowns have been a not-insignificant part of Cousins’ fantasy profile though.
Running Back
Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN)
McLaughlin is electric and the Broncos coaching staff seems to love the guy. A Denver team looking toward the future and giving extended run to its young players might lead to far more playing time for McLaughlin than any fantasy manager would have imagined even a week ago, when folks plucked him from the depths of the waiver wire after Javonte Williams’ quad injury.
McLaughlin is fourth among running backs in fantasy points over expected following his 89-yard, one touchdown performance against the Jets in Week 5. McLaughlin saw nine of the Broncos’ 15 running back rushes and ran 15 fewer pass routes from veteran Samaje Perine. While he certainly made the most of his limited opportunity, Williams’ imminent return to the Denver lineup and Perine’s presence will effectively phase out McLaughlin as a fantasy option. I think so, anyway.
Wide Receiver
Drake London (ATL)
I hate to do this to London drafters who over the past couple weeks have finally seen their guy put up numbers that don’t induce tears and nausea. Really, I do. But London’s situation still stinks and there’s no way around it.
The Falcons, even after London caught six balls for 67 yards in the team’s Week 5 win, have targeted wideouts at a league low rate of 36 percent. The next closest team is Chicago with a 50 percent target rate for Bears receivers. London has also seen a drop in his aDOT and yards per target.
Then there’s the unfortunate reality of life as a pass catcher in Arthur Smith’s offense: Atlanta is a lovely 17.1 percent under their expected pass rate when trailing this season. Only the Panthers are close (-14 percent). This is a long way of saying that even if the Falcons find themselves chasing points more often than not, London and the rest of the team’s receivers won’t automatically enjoy any kind of target volume. London’s path to weekly upside is nearly nonexistent.
Josh Reynolds (DET)
Reynolds’ fantasy prospects are very different with Amon-Ra St. Brown out of Detroit’s lineup. He saw 19 percent of the team’s targets for 40 percent of the air yards in Week 5 against Carolina, catching four passes for 76 yards and a score. That’s fine. It’s good, actually.
Reynolds’ has a bunch of numbers that should generate skepticism though: His 18.2 yards per reception is the fifth highest in the NFL, which makes sense when you consider his 13.3 average depth of target and 12.2 yards per target. Reynolds has converted 68 percent of his air yards into real, actual yards -- way higher than his 50 percent conversion rate in 2022. It’s tough to stay efficient with the kind of looks Reynolds usually gets in the Lions offense. Exercise a sliver of caution before you tap Reynolds as a reliable fantasy option.
Tight End
Luke Musgrave (GB)
The rookie’s route participation rate has dipped to 61.1 percent on the season and he’s still not commanding targets the way we’d like to see. Musgrave has yet to earn an end zone target, has no green zone looks, and a mere three red zone targets through five games.
Musgrave is in this space not because he’s been tearing it up in an unsustainable way, but because I think the widespread belief that he’s a locked-in fantasy starter isn’t reflected in the data. At best he’s a deep league PPR play.
Travis Kelce (KC)
I’m going into hiding after engaging in the blasphemy of suggesting Kelce is running particularly hot to start the season. But I must tell the truth. I will not be censored by radical Kelce drafters or their Swiftie compatriots.
Kelce through Week 5 is averaging 0.7 fantasy points per route, up from his 2022 rate of 0.55 FPPR. It’s not a huge discrepancy but it’s something. It’s no secret as to why Kelce has been so wildly efficient in 2023: He’s turned five green zone targets into three touchdowns, and he’s producing despite a significant drop in yards per target and average depth of target. His receiving success rate has dipped below 60 percent for the first time since 2017. Plus, as you may have heard, Kelce sustained an ankle injury in Week 5 against the Vikings.
Are you still starting Kelce? Yes, under threat of prison time.
