The Regression Files: Week 16
Spotting guys who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance — because “luck” is so crass — can help us with waiver wire additions, start-sits, and sneaky DFS plays, if you’re into that sort of thing.
That’s my goal with the Regression Files: Pinpointing players seemingly due for regression to the mean, for better or worse.
We’ll start with players who have run cold of late, and who might be due for something of a bounce back in Week 16 and beyond.
Regression Candidates (The Good Kind)
Quarterback
Justin Fields (CHI)
Was it frustrating to see Fields get a meager five designed rushing attempts in the Bears’ Week 15 loss to the Browns? After 31 designed rushes in the past three games, yes, it was.
That’s neither here nor there, even if it is upsetting to those of us who started Fields with thoughts of rushing production dancing in our deranged heads. I would like to inform you that Fields is running (very) cold in the red zone. He had just six touchdown throws on 35 attempts inside the 20 yard line. Inside the ten, Fields has five touchdowns on 17 attempts.
Chicago remains one of the league’s pass heaviest teams inside the 20; only five teams have a higher pass rate over expected in the red zone. And in Matt Eberflus’ attempt to keep his head coaching job, the Bears have turned toward the pass: They’re above their expected pass rate in all of their past three games. Fields is dropping back to pass at a 63 percent rate, 5 percent over expected. Chicago had a 66 percent pass rate while trailing over that three-game span.
If the team continues dropping back at a good clip and keeps slinging it in the red zone, I expect Fields’ touchdown passing production to regress. A date with the Cardinals defense could be just what the Regression Reaper ordered.
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
Some are saying this column has finally "jumped the shark" by including the greatest quarterback of all time in the positive regression space. I would argue about it but maybe that's right.
Anyway, Mahomes is way under his expected fantasy output over the past month. His touchdown rate over the past four games sits at a lowly 4.1 percent, far below his career TD rate of 6.2 percent and below his season long rate of 4.9 percent.
The Regression Reaper is keenly aware of this situation ahead of Week 16, when the Chiefs face a burnable Vegas coverage unit facing a 60 percent pass rate in neutral game script. KC, meanwhile, is the second pass heaviest red zone offense and Mahomes leads all QBs in pass attempts inside the ten yard line. If you've been queasy about starting Mahomes in the sputtering Chiefs offense, know that the touchdowns are coming, and coming soon.
Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)
Hopkins is going to land in this space every so often not because his role in the Tennessee offense changes, but because Will Levis’ play has been so maddeningly sporadic. We got Bad Levis in Week 15 against Houston, and it resulted in 200 air yards and 21 actual yards for Hopkins. Only Terry McLaurin had more Week 15 air yards than Nuk.
Hopkins has been a veritable air yards machine over the past three weeks, leading all pass catchers with 555 air yards as the dominant No. 1 option in the Titans run-first offense. For context: Elijah Moore has the second most air yards over that span with 395. Levis had the fifth worst drop back success rate in the league last week (but he has been accurate, with the sixth highest completion rate over expected since Week 14). Something a little closer to how Levis performed in Week 14 against the Dolphins and Hopkins should get back to putting up fantasy numbers that won’t make you quite so sad.
George Pickens (PIT)
You’re not getting much from Pickens in your point per block (PPB) leagues but you are racking up the points in your point per air yard (PPAR) formats. The mercurial receiver, who knows the enemy speaks kindly, has run exceedingly cold in the down-bad Pittsburgh offense of late.
Last week against the Colts, Pickens turned a team-leading 147 air yards into 47 receiving yards. He’s going to remain among the most volatile wideout options in fantasy because his average depth of target is so high: Against the Colts, Pickens posted an aDOT of 21. Pickens since Week 10 is 18th among all receivers in air yards with an aDOT of 14.2. Basically all of his targets are low-percentage sideline shots. The hope — the fleeting hope, anyway — is that Mason Rudolph can be slightly less terrible than Mitch Trubisky and help Pickens convert some of these air yards into edible, fantasy-viable real yards. Stranger things have happened, I suppose.
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Tight End
Kyle Pitts (ATL)
If the glorious holiday season hasn’t generated warm feelings for folks who drafted Kyle Pitts in August, surely these numbers will: Pitts is second among tight ends in air yards, third in yards per reception, ninth in targets, and 12th in pass routes. That Pitts is 24th in tight end fantasy points might extinguish whatever warm feelings remain in the Pitts truther. So it goes.
The Falcons have once again benched the underperforming Desmond Ridder following his meltdown against Carolina in Week 15. That puts Taylor Heinicke back in the proverbial saddle — a potential boon for Pitts and Drake London.
Pitts, in Heinicke’s Week 9 start against the Vikings, caught four of five targets for 56 yards (with London sidelined). Heinicke targeted Atlanta tight ends on 29 percent of his attempts, with Jonnu Smith going off for 100 yards on five grabs. Since then, Smith’s route participation has been wildly inconsistent. In Week 15, he ran a route on a mere 33 percent of Atlanta’s drop backs. If Pitts retains a more prominent role with the risk-taking Heinicke under center, he could — maybe, possibly — cash in some of those air yards in Week 16 against the Colts.
Regression Candidates (The Bad Kind)
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (DEN)
The writer of this column, whoever it is, has a definite bias against players who score touchdowns at a high rate. Some are saying this writer “hates touchdowns” and “gets upset when a guy scores too many touchdowns.” This lacks context and is deeply unfair to said writer.
Russ certainly qualifies as someone who scores too many touchdowns on too few opportunities. Inside the ten yard line this season, Wilson has completed 18 passes. Eleven, or 61 percent, have gone for touchdowns. Nearly half of Wilson’s inside-the-20 completions have gone for touchdowns through Week 15. It’s all so unsustainable, as we’ve seen with Wilson’s once sky high TD rate slipping a bit in recent weeks.
Russ, of course, has a nightmarish Week 16 matchup against a solid New England defense. Probably you can do (much) better than Wilson as the Reaper takes residence in Denver.
Running Back
Chase Brown (CIN)
Brown, who might just be the single fastest running back in the game, has done a lot with a little over the past few weeks in the Bengals’ Jake Browning-run offense.
The rookie has averaged a haughty 6.6 yards per touch, fueled mostly by some hyper-efficient pass catching out of the Cincy backfield. Brown has caught all nine of his targets for 115 yards and a touchdown. He has a grand total of 13 pass routes over those three games. In other words, Brown is notching a cool 8.33 yards per route run. I don’t care if he’s the fastest kid alive: That can’t last.
I have a little hesitance in telling you to shy away from Brown as a flex option in deeper leagues: Ja’Marr Chase’s absence will create a massive target vacuum in the Bengals offense that could be filled with more screens and check downs to Bengals backs and tight ends. A boost in routes and targets would likely offset whatever regression is coming Brown’s way in Week 16.
Wide Receiver
Jordan Addison (MIN)
The rookie got away with it big time in Week 15 against the Bengals. Because he’s very fast, Addison turned 58 air yards and six targets into six catches for 111 yards and a touchdown. It worked out wonderfully for those starting Addison in the fantasy playoffs. Now it’s time to look at Addison’s usage in the sober light of day.
Nothing much changed for Addison in Nick Mullens’ first start. He ran a route on 85 percent of the team’s drop backs and was targeted on 18 percent of those routes, in line with his season-long rate. His chunk of the Vikings’ air yards took a real hit though, as Justin Jefferson led the team by miles with a 52 percent air yards share. From Week 10-13, for example, Addison enjoyed a team-leading 44 percent air yards share and was targeted on 22 percent of his routes.
Over his past two games, Addison has 34 fantasy points, 19 points over his expected output. That’s a lot, per the analytics.
That the Vikings remained (slightly) over their expected drop back rate in Week 15 could keep Addison afloat as Minnesota’s No. 3 pass catcher. Do your best not to get the dreaded “goo goo eyes” when staring at his Week 15 box score though.
Tre Tucker (LV)
Someone online told me on Tuesday that I should have simply played Tucker over Gabe Davis as a flex option in a 14-team league. That person is right. In hindsight, I should have played the guy who caught two touchdowns over the guy who did not reel in a single pass. That’s good process.
Tucker, in the Raiders’ Thursday night demolition of the soul-sick Chargers, ran a route on 36 percent of the team’s drop backs and caught his pair of touchdowns on a mere three targets. Good for him. I’m not mad.
Tucker, who led Vegas with a 38 percent air yards share against the Bolts, will be the epitome of a volatile fantasy option going forward. It’s boom or bust for the speedy wideout; there is no in between.
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Tight End
Tucker Kraft (GB)
Has Kraft been an excellent waiver wire add for folks wracked with desperation for some decent tight end fantasy output? Yes, he has. Is he producing over his head? Also yes.
Since Week 11, only four tight ends are further above their expected fantasy output than Kraft, who last week against the Bucs caught four of six targets for 57 yards and a short score. Kraft, over Green Bay’s past three games, has been fine for fantasy, but has a humble 10 percent air yards share and a 14 percent target share. He is running a lot of pass routes, so he has that going for him, which is nice.
This week he plays an annoyingly effective Carolina defense that has given up the third fewest receptions to tight ends this season. The Panthers have limited tight ends of note, including TJ Hockenson and Dalton Schultz. They held Sam LaPorta to three receptions; two of which happened to be touchdowns. So it goes.
Probably you can do better than Kraft in Week 16 unless you’re in a deep league with a waiver wire that resembles a barren wasteland.
