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Randy Peterson's Iowa State/Big 12 predictions: Cyclones will pull off the upset in Ames

AMES − Iowa State football players remember that 2022 season-ending beatdown at TCU. It’s not easy washing fourth-ranked Horned Frogs 62, Cyclones 14 from your memory, no matter how hard you try.

“We’re not going to take that lightly,” safety Jeremiah Cooper reminded reporters Tuesday.

Given that motivation, plus the historical backdrop of Saturday’s 7 p.m. game at Jack Trice Stadium – expect nothing less than 100 percent from a team that showed a bit of progress (at least on offense) during last week’s 30-point loss at 12th-ranked Oklahoma.

“Getting 62 put on us last year (at TCU) was a little gut-wrenching," offensive guard Jarrod Hufford said. "It’s also kind of vengeful going into this week − like 'it’s our turn now.'”

More: Peterson: Iowa State football players, coaches are emotional about Jack Trice's legacy

No one accused TCU of running up the score; the final touchdown was with 1:02 left when backup quarterback Chandler Morris passed 2 yards for a touchdown to non-starting receiver Jordan Hudson. One more moment to impress the College Football Playoff committee? Possibly, but it’s not like the Cyclones were playing great defense in that game.

Let’s also not forget that Saturday is the culmination of a year-long celebration of the Jack Trice legacy. That’s motivation, too, wrote a regular contributor to the Register’s Iowa State text group:

How much passing freedom will Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht have on Saturday against TCU?
How much passing freedom will Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht have on Saturday against TCU?

“No way is Iowa State losing.”

What else did the text group say and ask about a game in which the offense must continue to improve and the defense must prove last week was just a hiccup?

Is this truly a must-win game for the Cyclones, who, btw, I think will win 17-7?

Coach Matt Campbell said before the season that goals always include reaching a bowl game, so in that sense, yes, beating TCU seems like a must. Any combination of four more wins and the Cyclones return to the postseason, but where are those four wins for a young team with a still-to-emerge offense? The season’s final two games are at home against fourth-ranked Texas and at Kansas State. The others are consecutive road games against Cincinnati and Baylor, at home against Kansas, and at BYU. There’s not a gimme among them, especially for a team with a 2-3 overall record.

What adjustments must the defense make?

That starts with making pocket life uncomfortable for Chandler Morris, which Campbell brought up during Tuesday’s press conference. “We’ve got to be able to affect the quarterback, and I don’t think we’ve done a good enough job over the course of the last couple games doing that,” he said. I’m expecting more pressure by linemen and possibly even a linebacker. The secondary should be good enough to handle one-on-one coverage in the back end.

The keys have been given to offensive coordinator Nate Scheelhaase. In Rocco we trust. Let them play to win, play loose and have fun.

How much will Iowa State offensive coordinator Nate Scheelhaase open the playbook on Saturday against TCU?
How much will Iowa State offensive coordinator Nate Scheelhaase open the playbook on Saturday against TCU?

For the first quarter last Saturday at Oklahoma, at least, Iowa State’s offense flowed better than it flowed all season. Becht completed 6 of 11 passes for 85 yards and a touchdown. He also threw a pick-six, but overall it was a good start against a very good team. The Sooners gradually intensified the pressure, and the rest is history. That first 15 or so minutes proved what’s been evident – that right now, passing is more efficient than running. Completions loosened the defense for nice runs by Abu Sama, Eli Sanders and Cartevious Norton. What worked (for a while) against Oklahoma, however, might not work against a TCU defense that’s been solid against the pass. Despite that, at home and during what will be an emotional night – this might be a good time to open the offense even more.

The Breakdown

TCU (1-1, 3-2) at Iowa State (1-1, 2-3)

Time, TV, line: 7 p.m., FS2, TCU by 6½

Where Iowa State has the edge: This is one of those plus your plusses games. Iowa State’s offensive strength is through the air, and particularly Rocco Becht throwing to Jaylin Noel. They found some synergy against Oklahoma, with one of Noel’s four receptions being a 51-yarder for a touchdown. Becht and Jayden Higgins had a 67-yard touchdown play in that game, as well. Doing likewise would mean passing success against a TCU defense that’s allowed just 183.5 passing yards against two conference opponents.

Where TCU has the edge: Until Iowa State proves it can rush the football, the edge will always go to the opposition. In this case, it’s a Horned Frogs defense that is in the middle of the Big 12 in stopping the rush. That’s not great, but until proven otherwise, rush defenses don’t have to be great against the Cyclones.

Prediction: This one hinges on Iowa State’s defense recovering from last Saturday’s loss at Oklahoma. Too many Sooners took advantage of finding the field’s open spaces – something TCU playmakers can do as well. Too many times, pass coverage broke down. For that matter, the Cyclones’ defense predictably has taken a step back, after losing so many high-quality veterans from a season ago. To win, Iowa State must continue moving forward in the passing game, and the Cyclones must pressure the quarterback.  IOWA STATE 34, TCU 31

Friday’s Game

Kansas State (1-0, 3-1) at Oklahoma State (0-1, 2-2)

Time, TV, line: 6:30 p.m., ESPN, Kansas State by 11½

Prediction: Oklahoma State has lost seven of its past 10 games, and that includes the last two – against South Alabama and Iowa State. That trend isn’t likely to change, unless somehow Mike Gundy’s team can exploit Kansas State’s so-so pass defense. With a middling passing game, that’s unlikely. The Wildcats will dominate possession time – and could be 5-0 in the conference before the Oct. 28 game at home against Texas. KANSAS STATE 34, OKLAHOMA STATE 17

Saturday’s Other Big 12 Games

No. 12 Oklahoma (2-0, 5-0) vs. No. 4 Texas (2-0, 5-0) at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., ABC, Texas by 6½

Prediction: The way Texas handled Kansas last Saturday, that 40-14 whipping, was enough to show that Sark’s team is a definite College Football Playoff contender – and yes, I know Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels didn’t play. The Longhorns boast the Big 12’s top rusher in Jonathon Brooks, and the No. 3 passer in Quinn Ewers. Texas has the Big 12’s best defense, while Oklahoma counters with the best offense, and oh by the way this is the first time these teams are meeting as unbeatens since 2011. Something must give, and the prediction here is that Texas will remain unbeaten in what will be the first of two games this season between teams scooting to the SEC. Yes, that means the Big 12’s nightmare rematch in the conference’s championship game. TEXAS 34, OKLAHOMA 31

UCF (0-2, 3-2) at Kansas (1-1, 4-1)

Time, TV, line: 3 p.m., FOX, Kansas by 2½

Prediction: How’s this for boring – UCF leads the Big 12 in rushing, while Kansas is No. 3. Extended possessions are likely, especially with Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels’ iffy playing situation. He’ll not be 100 percent, even if he plays, but that won’t be a deal-breaker. The Jayhawks are better than anticipated – a notion that will continue.  KANSAS 24, UCF 21

Texas Tech (1-1, 2-3) at Baylor (1-1, 2-3)

Time, TV, line: 7 p.m., ESPN2, Baylor by 1

Prediction: Neither team has lived up to expectations, which makes this an intriguing game in which the loser just might find itself on the outside of the bowl picture. Expect a close game.  Expect the Bears to win, given their big comeback in last Saturday’s win against UCF. If the line can keep quarterback Blake Shapen upright, the advantage goes to the home team Bears. BAYLOR 31, TEXAS TECH 28

Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson is in his 51st year writing sports for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, on X @RandyPete, and at DesMoinesRegister.com/CyclonesTexts

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Peterson's Big 12 picks: Iowa State will honor Jack Trice with a win