The Las Vegas Raiders were highly competitive against the Dolphins in Week 11 despite being 13-point underdogs. Aidan O’Connell and the offense had a chance to tie/win the game late in the fourth quarter, but an interception by Jalen Ramsey ultimately sealed their fate.
While this wasn’t quite a must-win for the Raiders, it was a missed opportunity. With the Jets, Steelers, Bengals, and Chargers all losing in the AFC, the Raiders had a chance to jump back into poll position for the No. 7 seed. Instead, they fell to 5-6 and their chances of making the postseason took a big hit.
According to the New York Times Playoff Simulator, the Raiders saw their playoff chances decrease to 2 percent after their Week 11 loss. That is down slightly from 7 percent earlier in the week. If they would have defeated the Dolphins, their odds would have jumped up to the 15-20 percent range.
This sets up for the Raiders to have a must-win game against the Chiefs in Week 12. According to the simulator, their odds of making the postseason would drop to under 1 percent if they lose against Kansas City. But a win would give them about a 10 percent chance to make the playoffs.
The Raiders are still in the hunt going into Week 12. But they will need to pull off the upset of the year to stay alive in the AFC.