The race to 1,458 innings: The Cincinnati Reds' pitching plan for 2024
GOODYEAR, Ariz. –– As Cincinnati Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall reflects on how the Reds’ 2023 season ended, he brings up all of the pitchers who weren’t expecting to be a part of a playoff chase.
Last September, the Reds called upon pitchers who started the year in an independent league, a prospect who was on an innings limit coming back from Tommy John surgery and a Double-A long reliever. They missed the playoffs last year because they didn’t have enough quality pitching depth, their bullpen got gassed and their young starting pitchers got worn down.
The front office responded by spending over $60 million in free agency to reinforce their pitching depth, adding Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter. The Reds wanted to make sure that they wouldn’t be in the same position in 2023, and they wanted enough depth to carry them well into October.
“Our front office did a great job," Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson said. "They identified our needs, they filled them and probably went even above and beyond. Not only did we get what we needed. We might have been able to create a little bit of depth, too. For so long, that has been hard for us. I'm excited about this."
The plan for Cincinnati Reds starting pitchers
An MLB regular season consists of 1,458 innings, and one of the stories of the Reds’ season will be how they stitch together the plan to fill those innings with quality pitchers. It begins with getting more from the team’s starting rotation.
Last season, Graham Ashcraft was the only pitcher who threw more than 120 innings. Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo missed a significant amount of time with injuries, and no one in the rotation consistently worked deep into games.
Entering spring training, the focus of the team’s young starting pitchers is getting closer to 200 innings.
“The goal for our starters, and I really believe it’s the next step in their development, is to prepare and get through a full season through October,” Reds manager David Bell said. “It’s 162 games and through October. They’re working hard to do that. We’re all excited to see what some of our young pitchers can do when they stay healthy all year.”
How Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo stay healthy
The first step in that plan is staying healthy. Greene focused on building up his endurance, ran more sprints and built up his core strength.
Lodolo is rebuilding his lower body strength as he rehabs from last year’s tibia injury. Andrew Abbott also developed a routine to strengthen his legs after he felt like he lost some of that last September. Graham Ashcraft has made his mechanics on the mound and his delivery more consistent. Montas went through an aggressive offseason program to build up his previously injured shoulder.
They all also want to pitch deeper into games in 2023. Last year, Ashcraft was the only one of the Reds’ main starting pitchers who averaged more than 5 ⅓ innings per start. The Reds had the most overworked bullpen in baseball, which caught up to them in September.
“Going short in games, whether it’s five or six innings, and having (relievers) throw back-to-back days or three days in a row, I don’t want to put anybody in that position,” Greene said. “Obviously, those guys will do anything to compete for the team. Those guys are never going to complain. But my own expectations and the expectations of the team is to not put the guys in that position.”
Cincinnati Reds have more pitching options
The Reds have also built more margin for error in their bullpen in 2024. Martinez is in the mix for a spot in the starting rotation, but Bell said that Martinez won’t build up all the way as a starting pitcher because Martinez is also in the mix for a bullpen role. If Martinez lands in the bullpen, then he’ll fill a multi-inning, high-leverage role.
Martinez pitched 110 innings last year and Pagán and Suter both pitched 69 ⅓ innings. They all have experience pitching into October, and they know what it takes to get there healthy.
If the Reds combine the experience in their bullpen with longer starts from their starting pitchers, then the deep pitching staff will live up to its potential.
“If we can cut relievers’ innings total down by 15 or even 20 at the end of the season, that’s huge,” Ashcraft said. “That’ll put us in a better spot. It’ll help a lot if we can go out and eat innings as starters.”
The battle to make the Reds' starting rotation
The depth on the Reds’ pitching staff will create the team’s most competitive rotation battle in years. Greene, Lodolo and Montas headline the top of the rotation.
Greene was last year’s Opening Day starter and was pitching as well as anyone in baseball before he got hurt last June. He returned from the injured list in August and had moments down the stretch where he looked like an ace. Heading into 2024, he's working on a new curveball and a new splitter. His changeup never became a consistent pitch, and Greene views these two pitches as a way to slow down the timing of hitters and set up his fastball for strikeouts. With a new-look arsenal, he hopes to be more consistent, get quicker outs and pitch like a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Lodolo missed most of last year with a tibia injury. He made an effort to return to the active roster in August. Before he got shut down for the year, the Reds were having conversations about Lodolo being their Game 1 starter in the playoffs. Bell said, “When healthy, there may not be anybody like him or better than him.”
Montas was a Cy Young candidate in 2021 and was one of the most in demand pitchers in baseball at the trade deadline in 2022. He started dealing with shoulder injuries in the middle of that year, and that injury forced him to miss nearly the entire 2023 season.
The Reds signed him to a one-year deal because when he’s healthy, Montas significantly raises the upside of the rotation. “We feel that when he’s healthy,” Bell said, “He’s as good as any pitcher out there.”
Ashcraft, Abbott and Brandon Williamson were the Reds’ three most consistent starting pitchers last year. They all attack the strike zone, throw multiple pitches well and have shown that they can handle the pressure of a playoff race. Prospect Connor Phillips has some of the most electric stuff in the organization, and Martinez was signed for his experience and his versatility.
Because of how much depth the Reds have created, pitchers who made a big impact last year won’t crack the roster at the start of the year.
“(The competition) gives you the extra drive,” Ashcraft said. “It makes you want to put the ax to the grindstone and work that much harder. A guy can fill your spot just as quickly as you filled somebody else's.”
How many Reds pitchers will be in the starting rotation?
The Reds aren't planning to use a six-man rotation. But Bell said they're considering using spot starts during the regular season and calling up a pitcher from Triple-A if the Reds need to work in an extra off day for a specific pitcher at different points of the year.
The Reds will look at ways to manage the workloads of their starting pitchers when needed, but Bell said that he wants every pitcher to have the mindset that he's going to be pitching every five days.
Injuries will inevitably take place over the course of the year. Last season, the average team used 15 starting pitchers. Because of what the Reds invested in their pitching staff, they’ll have one of the strongest groups of Triple-A reinforcements in MLB.
“It’s not about who’s on the Opening Day roster,” Krall said. “It’s about what we have in our organization and how guys compete. Just because you go to Triple-A at the start of your season doesn’t mean you won’t have an impact on the big league club.”
Bell said the Reds’ pitching depth has become one of the team’s biggest strengths, but most of these pitchers still have a lot to prove. They have to stay healthy, make corrections on the mound and make the jump from being good young pitchers to being good pitchers.
“We were competitive last year, but we lacked a bit of experience,” Greene said. “Sometimes, experience will trump talent. Once you put those two together, greatness is bound to happen. We have all the talent we need to go to the playoffs and win a World Series. It’s just up to us.”
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: How Cincinnati Reds pitching staff is shaping up for MLB 2024 season
