Pros and cons of Leafs' mini lineup shuffle: Knies gets a shot but at what cost?
The Maple Leafs have made some tweaks that will give them a different look after an uneven first three games.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are off to a 2-1-0 start, but head coach Sheldon Keefe clearly sees room for improvement in the aftermath of a 4-1 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks.
Keefe has made some meaningful tweaks to his lineup ahead of a five-game road trip that begins with a matchup against the Florida Panthers on Thursday.
Matthew Knies is headed up to the second line to join John Tavares and William Nylander, with Calle Järnkrok dropping to the the third unit. Meanwhile, Timothy Liljegren is joining forces with Jake McCabe, leaving Mark Giordano paired with John Klingberg.
It's more of a subtle change than a wholesale overhaul, but it could have significant effects on the team — both positive and negative.
Pro: Matthew Knies is getting a shot
No one is a bigger winner in this shuffle than Knies.
Playing with Nylander and Tavares is quite the upgrade from plying your trade alongside the Max Domi-Fraser Minten duo — who haven't produced much offensively thus far.
Because Knies doesn't have a route to time with the top power-play unit, his opportunities will have to come at even strength. Those might be hard to come by if he's on a struggling line, and it's unfair to expect the youngster to elevate an entire unit by himself.
The Maple Leafs consider Knies an important part of their future. They won't get a good sense of what he can do in a featured offensive role unless he gets some experience in one.
He's also a good stylistic fit with Nylander and Tavares, as his size and strength can be an asset in sustaining attacks in the offensive zone — and giving those two as many second-chance opportunities as possible will benefit Toronto's offense.
Con: Knies-Tavares-Nylander is a theoretical fit, but Järnkrok is a proven fit
There's no tangible reason to believe Knies wouldn't click with Tavares and Nylander, but it's noteworthy that the Maple Leafs are breaking up a line they know works in order to create one they think will perform.
Knies played 1:22 with his new linemates at 5-on-5 in the 2022-23 regular season and 4:45 in the the playoffs. Järnkrok, on the other hand, has played 71:17 5-on-5 minutes with Tavares and Nylander since the beginning of 2022-23 (postseason included).
That's not a massive sample, but within it the Maple Leafs have outshot their opponents 45-35, outscored them 6-3, and earned a 66.5% expected goal share. Early this season, that trio has been especially effective with an 83.29% expected goal rate, out-chancing opponents 11-2.
The proof of concept is pretty strong.
Pro: Järnkrok should bring some defensive spine to the third line
As physically mature as Knies is, and no matter how much Minten has quickly adapted to the pro game, a line with two rookies and Domi doesn't project to give you great defense.
The Maple Leafs have already made a defensive compromise by inviting Ryan Reaves into the lineup, making the David Kämpf line less of a shutdown unit.
While Keefe tends to mix other players in alongside Kämpf in critical defensive situations, it's still helpful for the coach to have regular units beyond his top line that are trustworthy in their own end.
Järnkrok is one of Toronto's best two-way forwards, and he should help the third line play a better two-way game.
Con: The offense might be even more top-heavy than before
You could debate about who is more of an offensive threat right now between a veteran with middle-six NHL credentials in Järnkrok and a rookie with plenty of talent but a limited track record, but this move seems unlikely to boost Toronto's bottom-six offense.
It's possible that Domi and Järnkork make beautiful music together, but Minten and Knies had established chemistry — and the young center seemed more likely to find his offensive game alongside a fellow rookie who flashes game-breaking ability at times than a workmanlike veteran like Järnkrok.
The best single offensive skill this new-look third line brings to the table is Domi's playmaking, and it's unclear if Minten and Järnkrok can finish well enough to capitalize on that.
While Domi and Knies hadn't hooked up in a meaningful way early on, there was potential there.
Pro: Liljegren could help McCabe get back on track
After a shaky first postseason, McCabe has come out of the gates slow in 2023-24. The Maple Leafs have been outscored 6-1 and outshot 37-28 during his 5-on-5 minutes and his on-ice expected goal rate (38.88%) is the worst on the team outside of the fourth line of Kämpf, Reaves, and Noah Gregor.
Some of the struggles Toronto has during McCabe's minutes can be attributed to his partner Klingberg's wobbles, but the 30-year-old was expected to help mitigate the offensively-gifted Swede's shortcomings and has been unable to do so in the early going.
That could be because McCabe is surprisingly active in the offensive zone for a player with no history of notable point production. He may have been miscast as a stay-at-home eraser alongside a prolific risk-taker.
Liljegren plays a more balanced game, and is off to a strong start to the season with an on-ice expected goal rate of 63.63% despite getting consistently buried in the defensive zone (66.7% dZS at 5-on-5). He could be a more natural fit alongside McCabe.
Con: The Maple Leafs may be asking too much of Giordano once again
Giordano has been solid in the early going, but he's in for a new challenge playing alongside the chaotic Klingberg.
While giving the free-wheeler a partner as smart and defensively responsible as Giordano has its appeal, it's worth wondering if the 40-year-old's mobility limitations could make life difficult. Part of what made McCabe a candidate to start alongside Klingberg was the skating ability to help put out fires.
Last season the Maple Leafs turned to Giordano when injuries put them in a defensive crunch, leaning on him to average 22:04 per night for a one-month span between mid-November and mid-December. He performed admirably, but wound up slowing down later in the season and into the playoffs.
His new assignment won't be taxing in precisely the same way as an oversized workload, but pairing with Klingberg could make his nights more difficult than playing alongside Liljegren was.
