Preview and Predictions: Michigan vs. Michigan State
Michigan football is set to host Michigan State on Saturday under the lights. For the second time ever in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines will face their in-state rival at night under the bright lights in Big House.
The Wolverines have lost two straight games to Michigan State — both of which Michigan was heavily favored — but the maize and blue hold a commanding lead in the all-time series, 71-38-5.
During his tenure, Jim Harbaugh is 3-4 against Michigan State and he is 0-2 against current coach Mel Tucker. During his press conference earlier in the week, Harbaugh made it known not only does his team really want his win, but he does as well. If Michigan wants to repeat as Big Ten champions and make another College Football Playoff, this is a must win.
The game will kickoff at 7:30 p.m. on ABC.
Continue reading for our in-depth preview of the game.
Michigan offense vs. MSU defense
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan scoring offense: 42.7 points per game (No. 6 in the country)
MSU scoring defense: 27.1 points per game allowed (No. 73 in the country)
Michigan rushing offense: 241.7 yards per game (No. 7 in the country)
MSU rushing defense: 153.2 yards per game allowed (No. 80 in the country)
Michigan passing offense: 231.9 yards per game (No. 73 in the country)
MSU passing defense: 269 yards per game allowed (No. 110 in the country)
Michigan total offense: 473.6 yards per game (No. 19 in the country)
MSU total defense: 422.3 yards per game allowed (No. 105 in the country)
As we know, the Wolverines pride themselves on being able to run the football. Blake Corum continues to have a fantastic season, churning out yards game in and game out. The junior back is seventh in the country with 901 yards through seven games and he is tied for first with 13 touchdowns.
The Michigan offensive line has done a great job blocking in general. The Wolverines have had some injuries on the O-line, but between Karsen Barnhart and Giovani El-Hadi, Michigan has remained solid. According to PFF, the maize and blue has the No. 21 run blocking line and the No. 31 pass blocking offensive line in the country.
The Wolverines’ signal-caller, J.J. McCarthy is statistically the most accurate passer in the nation. He is completing 77.1% of his passes and the sophomore quarterback has thrown nine touchdowns compared to two interceptions on the year.
Michigan State has been a little beat up on the defensive side of the ball this season. Senior safety Xavier Henderson and senior defensive tackle Jacob Slade are expected to take the field on Saturday night to bolster that unit.
STATS: MSU offense vs. Michigan defense
Photo: Isaiah Hole
MSU scoring offense: 27 points per game (No. 78 in the country)
Michigan scoring defense: 12.1 points per game allowed (No. 3 in the country)
MSU rushing offense: 106.1 yards per game (No. 116 in the country)
Michigan rushing defense: 85.8 yards per game allowed (No. 5 in the country)
MSU passing offense: 242.9 yards per game (No. 65 in the country)
Michigan passing defense: 164.1 yards per game allowed (No. 6 in the country)
MSU total offense: 349 yards per game (No. 104 in the country)
Michigan total defense: 250 yards per game allowed (No. 5 in the country)
This isn’t the same Michigan State team we are used to seeing. The Spartans were fantastic on the ground last season with Kenneth Walker III running the football, but he is in the NFL. Mel Tucker tried to use the transfer portal to pull in another Walker. Tucker landed Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger and Colorado transfer Jarek Broussard. Neither have lived up to expectations through seven games. Berger has 367 yards and Broussard has 191 yards.
Payton Thorne is back under center after helping beat the Wolverines in 2021. But he has not had the same success this season — possibly due to the lackluster run game.Thorne is completing 65% of his passes, has thrown for 1,499 yards, has thrown 11 touchdowns, but he has also been intercepted seven times.
Thorne will have his two main pass catchers against Michigan: Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman. Coleman leads the team with 393 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Reed has battled some injuries and missed one game this season because of them, but he has still pulled in 32 receptions for 373 yards and three scores.
The Wolverines will have a chance to get to Thorne on Saturday. MSU has allowed 12 sacks against its quarterback this season. Michigan has gotten to the quarterback 12 times this season and Mike Morris leads the team with five of them.
Other stats to know
Photo by: Isaiah Hole
In the last 46 out of 52 games, whichever team has had more rushing yards has won.
Michigan has scored 26 touchdowns — third most in the Big Ten — in the red zone out of 39 attempts.
MSU is 11th in the Big Ten scoring 76% of the time it reaches the red zone
The Spartans have allowed the third-most touchdowns to opposing teams in the red zone with 18.
MSU converts 42% of its third-down attempts
Michigan State is 12th in the Big Ten giving up 43% third down conversions to opponents.
Michigan State has had 10 turnovers on offense this season but has also forced 10 turnovers on defense.
MSU players to know
Jacoby Windmon #4 of the Michigan State Spartans intercepts a pass intended for Jack Eschenbach #82 of the Wisconsin Badgers during the first quarter at Spartan Stadium on Oct. 15, 2022 in East Lansing, Michigan. Nic Antaya/Getty Images
Linebacker/Edge Jacoby Windon — 37 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, five forced fumbles and one interception.
Linebacker Cal Haladay – 58 tackles, four tackles for loss, and one sack
Cornerback Kendell Brooks – 57 tackles and three forced fumbles
Running back Elijah Collins – 30 carries, 146 yards, and four touchdowns
Tight end Daniel Barker – 12 catches, 130 yards, and one touchdown
Staff Predictions
Wolverines Wire staff writers Isaiah Hole and Trent Knoop share their thoughts on the game, two soft predictions, one bold prediction and the final score.
Isaiah Hole:
There’s a weird feeling as Michigan prepares to take on its rival MSU on Saturday night. If you took the name off the jersey, the Spartans would be seen as an obvious beat down-type of team with questions about why this game is at night — much like Indiana last year. However, due to the general weirdness of this rivalry, and the two recent losses (games Michigan was supposed to win), I think there’s an uneasiness that will loom until the clock hits zero and the Paul Bunyan is in hand.
Last year, Michigan State was very good, but not great. While the pass defense was awful, the run defense was elite, and the offense had an enigmatic, program-changing running back in Kenneth Walker III. This year, it has none of those things. The run defense is in the bottom third, the pass defense is still atrocious, and MSU struggles to run with any of its three backs. The only real offense comes in the form of Payton Thorne and his two receivers: Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman.
Yes, the Spartans get back Jacob Slade and Xavier Henderson on defense, but those two players shouldn’t be enough to stem Michigan from doing what it wants to do. The Wolverines have better fronts, better athletes, and theoretically a better quarterback in J.J. McCarthy. Luck always seems to fall on MSU’s side, but this Michigan team is focused on the task at hand, and usually when that’s the case, the maize and blue hoist the trophy in the end.
-Soft predictions
Michigan holds the MSU run game to under 100 yards
J.J. McCarthy passes for more than 250 yards
-Bold prediction
Michigan, despite the sour nature of the MSU rush defense, struggles to run for over 200 yards.
-Final score prediction
Michigan 42, Michigan State 20
Trent Knoop:
On paper, this game is a total mismatch in favor of Michigan. The Spartans have a really bad defense and the Michigan State offense is less than stellar. But this is a huge rivalry game and anything can happen.
The story of this rivalry game is historically whoever has the most rushing yards will win. If that is the case, then you would have to think that Michigan will have the most. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards have been sensational this season running behind an outstanding offensive line. MSU, on the other hand, has been really bad running the ball. The Spartans are ranked toward the bottom of the country running the football and the Wolverines have been stout defending the run.
I really think Michigan is just too much for Michigan State this season. It’s a night game, the crowd is going to be energized, and Michigan really wants this game. I look for the Wolverines to take control early and cruise to a victory.
-Soft predictions
J.J. McCarthy throws for 200 yards or more
Blake Corum has another 100-yard rushing performance
-Bold prediction
Andrel Anthony has five catches
Final score prediction
Michigan 42, Michigan State 14
