My preseason NBA champion pick Miami Heat reach finals, but can they upset Denver Nuggets?

Can’t even front.

I vaguely remember Miami being my preseason favorite to win it all at the start of the playoffs.

Trust me, I’m not gloating here because I also picked Phoenix to knock out the Nuggets in six games of the Western Conference semifinals.

The Suns were instead eliminated by the No. 1 in the West, losing Game 6 by 25 points at home that led to the firing of head coach Monty Williams with an expected roster transformation to follow.

So, in making a finals prediction, do I go with my preseason pick or the team that won four games over the Suns by an average margin of 17.2 points and swept LeBron James and the Lakers in the conference finals?

Whoever wins it all will make history.

No eighth seed has ever won an NBA championship. The lowest seed to ever do so was Houston nearly 30 years ago when they swept Orlando in the 1995 finals as a sixth seed in the West.

Miami is an eighth seed. The Knicks reached the finals as an eighth seed in the strike-shortened 1998-99 season, but they lost to San Antonio in five.

The Nuggets have never won an NBA title.

This is their first finals appearance after reaching the conference finals four previous times in 1978, 1985, 2009 and 2020.

This is the first time they’ve been a No. 1 seed in the West.

This is the best team two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic has had with the Nuggets.

Finally healthy, too, the Nuggets have looked like the best team in the playoffs.

Jokic is averaging a triple-double in the postseason — 29.9 ppg, 13.2 rpg., and 10.2 apg. He’s posted eight triple-doubles this postseason to pass Wilt Chamberlain for the most ever in a playoff run.

Jamal Murray has scored at least 31 points in seven postseason games.

Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have come through in key moments.

And Nuggets coach Michael Malone has talked the talk, walked it with complete confidence in his stride, great coaching and has stuck to an eight-man rotation with Bruce Brown raising holy hell off the bench.

The Nuggets should be the finals favorite.

I should be picking them.

So why aren’t I?

Let’s begin with why I chose the Heat at the beginning of the season.

They were a Jimmy Butler 3-point misfire away from reaching the finals last year in losing Game 7 of the conference finals to Boston.

They had their main pieces returning under Erik Spoelstra and would be on a mission to push through the East to the championship round and finish what they started.

“We had enough,” Butler said after losing Game 7 to Boston in the East finals. “Next year, we will have enough and we’re going be right back in this same situation and we're going to get it done.”

Sounded great.

Then Miami started the regular season 7-11.

Butler dealt with nagging injuries.

Well, there goes that prediction.

The Heat finished the season, 44-38, lost their first play-in game to Atlanta and trailed Chicago, 90-87, with under three minutes left in the fourth quarter before closing the game on a 15-1 run to grab the eighth seed.

Still thinking, they’ve got to play Milwaukee, the league’s best team, in the first round.

Yeah, Giannis Antetokounmpo missed Game 2 and 3 with a back injury, but the Bucks got enough to push past the Heat, right?

Wrong. The two-time MVP came back in Game 4, scored 26 points, but Butler just couldn’t be stopped on his career-best 56-point reckoning.

The Bucks led by 12 with under six minutes left, but they were outscored 30-13 the rest of the way with Butler scoring 19 of Miami’s final 30 points in leading lead the Heat to victory.

Who the hell does that? What team scores 30 points in less than six minutes of the fourth on the road?

Jimmy Buckets and a team that wasn’t going to lose Game 6 at home.

The Heat probably should’ve lost because Antetokounmpo missed 13 free throws on a 38-point, 20-rebound game Milwaukee lost by two.

Butler scored 42 points, forcing overtime with a basket with 0.5 seconds left, putting his stamp on being the best player in the playoffs.

The Knicks gave Miami a tussle in the second round, but there was never any doubt the Heat would win the series even when Butler missed Game 2 with a sprained right ankle.

Then they just eliminated the second-seeded Celtics in seven games after winning the first three, losing the next three with the latter one coming on Derrick White's tip-in at the buzzer and taking Game 7 in Boston.

Jayson Tatum's early ankle injury in Game 7 seemed to impact the Celtics mentally, but Miami won it in resounding fashion, 103-84, to avoid being on the wrong side of history.

Still no NBA team has came back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. The Heat had the final answer Memorial Day night on the road while the Celtics finally died from 3 (9-of-42 Game 7).

Butler came through with 28 points but Miami isn’t a one-man show. Drafted or undrafted players, Miami has played like a championship contender in the playoffs — and this is without Tyler Herro.

The Heat tweeted April 21 that Herro was “expected to miss a minimum of six weeks” after injuring his right hand at Milwaukee in Game 1 and having “successful” surgery on the third and fourth metacarpal.

It’ll be six weeks Friday. The finals start Thursday with Game 2 set for June 4.

Before Tuesday's Game 4 against the Celtics, Spoelstra provided an injury update that Herro has the brace off his hand and been cleared for basketball activities.

If Herro can come back and give Miami productive minutes, man, the Heat will be even more formidable, but Denver is still playing great basketball and will have homecourt advantage.

A little tougher to breathe at that altitude.

Regardless of location, Miami and Denver can’t keep using that “underdog” or “no respect” rally cry.

They earned their way here.

The Nuggets can’t keep spatting “the narrative” has been the other team, not them. The more they’ve won, the more people see why they are the top seed in the West.

They’ll likely be the favorites.

So, who I got?

The Nuggets have the better team, but Spoelstra has been to the finals, Bam Adebayo will give Jokic a different look and it’s time for Butler to become “Championship Jimmy.”

The Nuggets are better, are playing better, but I got Heat in six.

Sticking with my preseason pick even after vaguely remember making it.

Have opinion about current state of the Suns? Reach Suns Insider Duane Rankin at dmrankin@gannett.com or contact him at 480-787-1240. Follow him on Twitter at @DuaneRankin.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Why I picked Miami Heat to win NBA championship before season began