Premier League clubs unlikely to spend big in January with transfers lined up for the summer
For football agents hoping to broker transfers, the phone is still ringing regularly but the conversations have been about the summer as much as January.
The mid-season window creaked open on Saturday to little fanfare. There was no big-money deal to kick off the spending, nor is there expectation of big investment in the next 29 days as the Covid-19 pandemic grips football.
Last season’s January spending was a splurge by comparison, with the top flight spending £230million to reinforce squads for the second half of the season, an increase of £50million from the previous year.
Manchester United transformed Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s team by breaking the £50million mark for Bruno Fernandes and kept looking to invest in a forward, ending up with Odion Ighalo after failing in a move for Josh King.
Tottenham Hotspur chairman Daniel Levy was celebrating getting £17million for Christian Eriksen, who would have left for free six months later, but kept the money moving through the game and bought Steven Bergwijn. West Ham invested £18million up front on Jarrod Bowen, while Sheffield United broke their transfer record to sign Sander Berge.
The highest-profile deal last January was Erling Haaland turning down the Premier League and heading to Borussia Dortmund but his agent Mino Raiola admits “it’s hard to do top deals in January”.
Raiola was speaking in the context of Paul Pogba, who he says is unsettled at United and wants to move in the summer.
It will be when the season is over that the big deals happen, rather than in the next four weeks. The season will be over and the financial landscape will be clearer, with the futures of players such as Pogba, Jadon Sancho and Jack Grealish coming into sharp focus. Only the very top stock will get the big moves.
The rest will be scrapping for moves, with clubs looking for loans and free transfers to add to their squads rather than putting down money.
There are a number of players who have no squad number at their clubs or have fallen out of favour. The biggest obstacle for finding a new team is that most managers have filled their 25-man squads up already and there are no slots to fill.
The likes of Danny Drinkwater and Danny Rose are looking for football but the task will be getting a team who desperately needs them, then to thrash out a deal to suit all parties.
“It is very difficult to get a loan who can improve you straight away,” said Newcastle manager Steve Bruce, who is in the market for two short-term deals. “Usually you get them because they are not playing, have fallen out with someone or are not quite ready.”
Another problem is that clubs may need players to stay as coronavirus infects more players and leaves managers stretched. At Spurs, they were willing to let Dele Alli out on loan as a mark of respect for his five years at the club. Now they have Giovani Lo Celso injured and Dele, back on the bench against Leeds United this weekend, will be needed in a congested January schedule.
Clubs have voted for nine substitutes for each game and now need the players to fill them, which will also impact on the number of loans and whether young players in the squad get allowed out for regular games in the EFL.
Free transfers such as Daniel Sturridge will need time to get up to match speed after six months training on their own, which is another factor when teams decide who to target, and Brexit has moved the goalposts for signing young foreign talent, which will mean less coming to England and only the very best granted moves.
It will not be totally barren this month, with some exciting loan prospects set to be available. Brandon Williams at United has drawn interest from Bayer Leverkusen and Southampton as they look for full-backs. Williams' team-mate Dan James is wanted by Premier League clubs although he looks set to stay at Old Trafford.
Championship clubs have less money to spend than usual but some of their players could be picked off if bargains are there to be had. Reading’s Michael Olise and Hull’s Jacob Greaves are two young talents who are being closely watched.
There has also been a takeover at Burnley, where Sean Dyche will be given money to spend and desperately needs to bolster his squad after losing numbers in the summer and not replacing. He wants a right-winger as a priority but is in the market for any players to improve his team.
Mauricio Pochettino is on the brink of taking charge at Paris Saint-Germain and will look to freshen the squad he inherits from Thomas Tuchel. It may not be able to get his favourite players from Spurs like Harry Kane or Hugo Lloris but there will be moves in the market.
Some of the most interesting “transfers” have been players switching representatives. Aymeric Laporte, who is out of favour at Manchester City, is with Wasserman. Stellar have landed Eduardo Camavinga, Wilfried Zaha is with Roc Nation and Leverkusen forward Leon Bailey has joined Unique Sports Management.
As Raiola says, getting those big deals done in January is difficult but when football returns to normal the spending will return.
