Predicting how Detroit Lions spend their NFL draft picks in trade up, trade down scenarios

Brad Holmes explained at his annual pre-draft news conference this week what he’d need to both trade up and trade down in the first round of Thursday’s 2024 NFL draft.

The Detroit Lions would be tempted to trade up from Pick No. 29, Holmes said, for a player who’s the right pick and the right fit at the right price. They’d go down, Holmes said, if they’re staring at a group of players who are ranked in a cluster on their board and the offer is good enough that it overwhelms any conviction they have for a specific player at that point in the draft.

“I always kind of go back to … don’t spend a lot of time arguing going to Grand Cayman or Turks and Caicos,” Holmes said. “You’re not going to be mad either way. So when you’re happy with the decision of, ‘If we come away with any of these guys,’ you kind of do the math. You’re like, ‘OK, if we trade back here, some of these guys will be left, and we’ll be happy and we’re going to get some capital.’

“(But if) you go back to that conviction conversation, ‘No, this is that guy that we have been convicted on. We’re not moving and we’re just going to stay put.’ And whatever extra capital you get on the back end, it’s really not worth it.”

Every year I try and predict how different scenarios could influence the way the Lions might use their picks in the first three rounds of the draft. This year, I added the trade element to the mix. At No. 29, the Lions could move up to catch a falling star on their board or move down and accumulate more draft capital for Days 2-3.

Here’s a look at three scenarios:

Trade up

First round: No. 19 pick: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama. Second round: No. 61 pick: DE Marshawn Kneeland, Western Michigan.

If the Lions want to go big-game hunting in the draft, my guess is they’d move up for a defensive player who slips out of the top 15. They don’t have the ammunition to get into the top half of the first round without including both Day 2 picks or mortgaging future assets, neither of which seems appealing. But adding a player like Arnold, Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell or Florida State pass rusher Jared Verse would be a huge get for the roster.

Arnold ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, so maybe he lingers on the board longer than expected. He plays faster than his time speed because of his instincts, and he had five interceptions last year — that would be appealing to a Lions secondary that needs more playmakers.

The price to move up to Pick 19 (with a Rams team Brad Holmes knows well) is likely the Lions’ third-round pick (from Minnesota), which would leave the Lions without picks in Rounds 3 and 4. That’s not ideal, but the Rams could slide the Lions a fifth-rounder (No. 154) in return.

Kneeland is one of the better pass rushers in the class, though he did not put up big numbers at Western Michigan. The Lions will have to wait till Day 3 to fill needs at receiver and on the interior line, but Holmes chases talent over need first.

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Trade down

Second round: No. 44: CB Ennis Rakestraw, Missouri; No. 61: DT Brandon Dorlus, Oregon. Third round: No. 73: WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington; No. 77: OL Zak Zinter, Michigan.

I like Rakestraw as a fit for the Lions at 29, but he battled injuries and had limited ball production at Missouri, so I could see him sliding to Round 2. In this scenario, the Lions still get one of the top cornerbacks on their board — and gain an extra third-round pick to deal down from No. 29 with a Las Vegas Raiders team that might want to move up to take a quarterback.

With Rakestraw in the fold, the Lions can spend the rest of a busy Day 2 filling other holes. Holmes has an affinity for drafting second- and third-round defensive linemen — Alim McNeill, Levi Onwuzurike, Josh Paschal, Brodric Martin — and Dorlus is one of the most well-rounded tackles in a mostly underwhelming class.

In Round 3, the Lions grab a productive deep ball receiver in Polk who can win contested catches downfield, and a projectable interior lineman in Zinter who won’t need to play immediately coming off a major knee injury, but has starter potential down the road.

Sit tight

First round: No. 29: OL Zach Frazier, West Virginia. Second round: No. 61: WR Roman Wilson, Michigan. Third round: No. 73: CB Dru Phillips, Kentucky.

The Lions should have plenty of good options if they stand pat at 29, including at some of their biggest positions of need: Offensive line, cornerback and receiver. I mocked Frazier to the Lions this week both because of Holmes’ desire to build through the trenches, where the Lions have long-term needs on the offensive line, and because Frazier feels like a Lions fit. He’s a four-year starter with experience at guard and center who doesn’t mind pulverizing his opponents into the ground.

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Round 2 should be fertile ground for receivers, where Wilson is quietly one of the top prospects at the position. He probably won’t go as high as Keon Coleman, Troy Franklin or Xavier Worthy, but he’s a reliable deep threat who would be a nice complement to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams in the Lions’ receiving corps.

The Lions miss out on the draft’s top defensive linemen in this scenario, but add a physical corner in Phillips who has excellent burst — his 11 feet, 3-inch broad jump was fourth best at the combine — but only one year of starting experience.

Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on X and Instagram at @davebirkett.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: 3 ways Detroit Lions could spend Day 1-2 picks in NFL draft 2024