Predicting what the College Football Playoff rankings will look like after Week 12
There’s just one week left in the college football regular season. From there it’s off to the conference championship games. All of the action over the next couple of weeks will determine what four teams make the College Football Playoff, and this year there’s a bushel of undefeated and one-loss teams still in the mix.
Ohio State is one of them after dismantling Minnesota. Last week’s No. 1 team Georgia along with the other undefeated teams, Michigan, Florida State, and Washington, are also in the driver’s seat. One loss teams Oregon, Alabama and Texas will be there depending how teams shake out in front of them.
Week 12 was absent drama. The top teams won, so the College Football Playoff committee may not have too difficult of a job, at least at the top. Beyond that though, there’s sure to be some reshuffling. We also don’t know how the wins the Ducks, Seminoles and Huskies had will affect the order.
We do our best to try and sort out what the CFP committee will do after each week’s set of games and we’ve been pretty good at it so far, so why not continue those efforts.
Here’s our prediction on what the College Football Playoff rankings could look like when the committee unveils the fourth set of rankings on Tuesday.
Georgia Bulldogs (11-0)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | at Georgia Tech |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 1
Last Result: Won at Tennessee, 38-10
Why the Ranking
Georgia may not have had the most difficult schedule early on in its campaign, but it has beaten three straight ranked teams. Last week’s win over Missouri was enough to vault the Bulldogs over Ohio State and they’ve cemented that ranking with a dominating performance over SEC opponent Tennessee Saturday.
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Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | at Michigan |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 2
Last Result: Won vs. Minnesota, 37-3
Why the Ranking
We were critical of the committee flipping Ohio State and Georgia last weekend after the Buckeyes did nothing to lose that spot, but since the dye has been cast, expect OSU to remain at No. 2 because of both top teams looking the part.
Michigan Wolverines (11-0)
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | vs. Ohio State |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 3
Last Result: Won at Maryland, 31-24
Why the Ranking
Michigan didn’t look the best against Maryland but the body of work will be enough to keep the Wolverines at No. 3. The stage is set for a titanic matchup with Ohio State next weekend. Set the DVR and get your popcorn ready.
Florida State Seminoles (11-0)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | at Florida |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 4
Last Result: Won vs. North Alabama, 58-13
WHy the Ranking
Nobody expected Florida State to struggle with FCS opponent North Alabama but the Seminoles took a huge blow, losing quarterback Jordan Travis. The committee will take injuries into account, but it will take a wait-and-see-approach. Suddenly, the game at Florida next week takes on added significance.
Washington Huskies (11-0)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/24 | vs. Washington State |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 5
Last Result: Won at Oregon State, 22-20
Why the Ranking
It wasn’t pretty as Washington continued to labor to win, but it was in some pretty bad weather at a highly ranked opponent, so the CFP committee will look favorably at the Huskies effort in a close victory on the road. The Huskies seem to be on a collision course rematch with Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game.
Oregon Ducks (10-1)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/24 | vs. Oregon State |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 6
Last Result: Won at Arizona State, 49-13
Why the Ranking
The Ducks just keep plugging away, playing as good as anyone right now. However, until they get a chance for a mulligan against Washington, Oregon isn’t moving up because of the head-to-head win by the Huskies.
Texas Longhorns (10-1)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/18 | at Iowa State |
11/24 | vs. Texas Tech |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 7
Last Result: Won at Iowa State, 26-16
Why the Ranking
Texas will stay ahead of Alabama as long as the Longhorns continue to win — until maybe — if the Tide can beat Georgia in the SEC Championship game. Texas hasn’t looked nearly as good as it did early in the season but finds a way to win and will most likely remain firmly here for now.
Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | vs. Chattanooga |
12/2 | SEC Championship vs. Georgia |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 8
Last Result: Won vs. Chattanooga, 66-10
Why the Ranking
Does anyone really believe that Texas would beat Alabama if they played again? The Tide are a much better team than early in the season, but the loss against the Longhorns are keeping them from moving further up the rankings. There’s an ace in the hole though if ‘Bama can take care of Georgia in Atlanta.
Missouri Tigers (9-2)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/24 | at Arkansas |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 9
Last Result: Won vs. Florida, 33-31
Why the Ranking
Missouri escaped an upset bid by Florida at home, but that will not matter much. The committee thinks a lot of the Tigers as the highest ranked two-loss team (ahem, SEC), so there will not be a change here.
Louisville Cardinals (10-1)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | vs. Kentucky |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 10
Last Result: Won at Miami (FL), 38-31
Why the Ranking
Louisville won in rather unconvincing fashion for the second week in a row, but there’s not a team below the Cardinals that have the resume or wins to supplant them at the No. 10 spot. They will not make the playoff, but have put together a fantastic year.
Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/24 |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 12
Last Result: Won vs. Rutgers, 27-6
Ole Miss Rebels (9-2)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/23 | at Mississippi State |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 13
Last Result: Won vs. UL Monroe, 35-3
Oklahoma Sooners (9-2)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/24 | vs. TCU |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 14
Last Result: Won at BYU, 31-24
Oregon State Beavers (8-3)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/24 | at Oregon |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 11
Last Result: Lost vs. Washington, 22-20
LSU Tigers (8-3)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | vs. Texas A&M |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 15
Last Result: Won vs. Georgia State, 56-14
Iowa Hawkeyes (9-2)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/24 | at Nebraska |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 16
Last Result: Won vs. Illinois, 15-13
Arizona Wildcats (8-3)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | at Arizona State |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 17
Last Result: Won vs. Utah, 42-18
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-3)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | at Stanford |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 19
Last Result: Won vs. Wake Forest, 45-7
Kansas State (8-3)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | vs. Iowa State |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 21
Last Result: Won at Kansas, 31-27
Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-3)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | vs. BYU |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 23
Last Result: Won at Houston, 43-30
Tulane Green Wave (10-1)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | vs. UTSA |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 24
Last Result: Won vs. FAU, 24-8
Tennessee Volunteers (7-4)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | vs. Vanderbilt |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 18
Last Result: Lost vs. Georgia, 38-10
Liberty Flames (11-0)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | at UTEP |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: N/A
Last Result: Won vs. UMass, 49-25
North Carolina Tar Heels (8-3)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | at NC State |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 20
Last Result: Lost at Clemson, 31-20
Utah Utes (7-4)
Remaining Schedule
Date | Opponent |
11/25 | vs. Colorado |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 22
Last Result: Lost at Arizona, 42-18
