Power rankings: Bills still in 1-2 race for top spots after Week 5

Last week: No. 3

Good teams find ways to bully teams that aren’t in their same bracket, and that is precisely what the Bills did to the Steelers at home with a 38-3 smackdown. If not for the loss to the Miami Dolphins, who are unraveling, the Bills would be one of the last undefeated squads in the league.

Their league-best +91 point differential is nearly double the next-most dominant teams (Eagles, 49ers both at +47). Next up, a trip to Kansas City, where Buffalo won by 18 last season … in the regular season anyway.

The best way to avoid losing a close game is to never be in one.

Previous rank: No. 2

The Steelers showed up to Western New York with a rookie quarterback making his first start and a defense playing without T.J. Watt. The results were as one-sided as you might expect: a 38-3 Bills victory that put Buffalo back in sole possession of first place in the AFC East. Josh Allen cut through 20 mph winds with ease, connecting on a pair of long TD passes to Gabriel Davis in a first half that included an absurd 348 passing yards for the star QB. Buffalo coasted from there, but Allen still managed to set a franchise record for passing yardage in a game that ended in regulation (424). When the Bills start cooking, there’s not another team in the league that can handle the heat emanating from their kitchen.

Now that Gabe Davis is back putting up numbers, can this offense be stopped? They have the big one this week with the Chiefs. That will be fun.

(Last week: 2)

Trade idea: Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey

Would it be ideal for a team as loaded as the Bills to pay a premium for a player at a relatively fungible position after already using a second-round pick and two third-rounders on running backs in recent years? Of course not. But the Bills somehow rank 30th in rushing DVOA through five weeks, and McCaffrey could theoretically help in the slot, too, while absorbing some hits on behalf of Josh Allen.

Up next: at Kansas City, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

The Bills have unleashed the full fury of Josh Allen without worrying about forcing a weak traditional running game and to make sure any defensive injuries don’t allow an opponent to think they have a chance keeping up with Allen. He got red-hot again at the right time for the epic playoff matchup with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

The Bills’ top gear is pretty amazing. But if they go to Kansas City in Week 6 and lose to the Chiefs next week, blowout wins over the Rams, Titans and Steelers won’t matter as much. They want to make sure they’re not playing a postseason game at Arrowhead Stadium for a third straight year, and it’ll be hard to avoid that if they lose Sunday.

Last week: win vs. Pittsburgh, 38–3
Next week: at Kansas City

As we mentioned on this week’s MMQB podcast, the Bills are one of those teams that can play a horrendous game but ultimately still whip an opponent by 30 points. Even on a day when a pedantic quarterback analyzer would take to Twitter and say Josh Allen was pedestrian, Allen is still big and tough and fearless and difficult to bring down. He also plays with one of the deepest offenses in the NFL, and the whole thing is incredibly well-schemed. They may lose a silly game in the playoffs, but that doesn’t change the fact that everyone is looking for the next Josh Allen, and that everyone is going to keep hiring Bills coaches and executives.

Week 5 ranking: 2

Chance to make the playoffs: 99.1%
Chance to win their division: 90.9%

It’s difficult to imagine a scenario that involves this team not making the postseason, but one area that the offense has struggled with is establishing the running game outside of quarterback Josh Allen. Much of that is due to the blocking up front (65.3% run block win rate, ranked 32nd), especially at guard. Only one running back has rushed for a touchdown (James Cook vs. Steelers), and Allen has led the team in rushing for four of the five games — the second quarterback to do so, joining Lamar Jackson (2021). The Bills’ offense is already operating at a high level led by Allen, an early MVP candidate, but getting the running backs going consistently would elevate Buffalo’s potential and could help prevent injury to Allen.