Potential power gainers for fantasy baseball 2024

We're now almost two months into the 2024 MLB season and it's becoming clear that, for whatever reason, we're not seeing the same level of offense we did last year. After we saw a batting average bump last year, the league-wide batting average is down to its lowest mark since 1968 and the league's home run per game average of 1.03 is the lowest rate since 2015. While we can speculate all we want on WHY that is, I thought it might be more fun to think about who might be responsible for some of those stats improving.

I went to Statcast and pulled all the data for pulled flyballs and line drives (FBLD) to see who should be set for a power surge in the coming months. I looked at the overall number of pulled FBLD, the exit velocity on those, the average launch angle, how many went for home runs, and then I also toggled for swing speed and swing length just to see for myself. I felt like these stats would give us the best idea of who is pulling the ball and hitting it hard but not seeing the ball go over the fence as much as it should with those data points.

I then eliminated players who were hitting the ball too soft to the pull side to leave the yard or players who weren't lifting it enough to consistently get it out. That got rid of some guys like Oneil Cruz, who hit the ball really hard but not at a consistent enough launch angle to suggest he's getting unlucky. So who are the hitters who are getting unlucky with pulled fly balls and should we expect a home run boost in the future?

Right off the bat, we see a few pretty clear examples of players off to slower-than-expected starts who we anticipate will turn it around. There's simply no way Austin Riley and Rafael Devers should have one combined home run on their pulled flyballs and line drives (FBLD). Same for Julio Rodriguez and Ronald Acuña Jr. having just one each. Now, there are some things to note, like Riley and Devers both pulling less than 30% of their flyballs and line drives. That's not common for them. Riley also has poor exit velocity on his pulled FBLD, and Julio Rodriguez has the fifth-longest swing on this leaderboard and an issue on inside pitches.

Riley's overall flyball exit velocity is down to just 89 mph, which is well below his 91.1 mph career rate. He's not popping the ball up more, but his launch angle is up about three degrees, so he may be just getting under the ball a bit more than normal. It also appears that pitchers have stopped throwing him inside, pitching him on the outside part of the plate nearly 50% of the time. When you pair that with him also being pitched up in the zone more often, Riley may be simply not getting as many pitches that he can turn on. He has the power to hit the ball out to all parts of the park, so this just seems like something he needs to adjust his approach to combat.

Julio Rodriguez popped up on the Statcast bat speed leaderboard with an incredibly quick swing, but he also is the second-worst hitter on the Mariners in terms of squared-up rate, which might be a result of his really long swing. On pitches on the inside part of the plate, Rodriguez's swing is still 7.9 feet long and he also squares the ball up on just 22.7% of contact, which is the worst rate of any Mariners starter. That's not what you want from your team's superstar, especially when paired with him having a negative Statcast Run-Value on pitches middle-in. Whether it's due to the pitch types and locations he's looking for or a change that needs to be made on his swing, there's a bit of an issue with Julio's power production right now. Considering he's only hitting flyballs 26% of the time, it's hard to see a major boost coming without an approach change.

I know Corbin Carroll shows up on here, but I'm not a believer. His exit velocity is among the lowest of qualified hitters on this leaderboard and his 18.4-degree launch angle is third-lowest on this list, ahead of only Oneil Cruz and Ryan McMahon, who, for what it's worth, both have average exit velocities on pulled FBLD over 102.5 mph, which is significantly better than Carroll. We know that Carroll's power outage is connected to another source, which he has discussed publicly: his flat swing plane. While Carroll won’t outright say this, I think he flattened his bat path because it puts less strain on his shoulder when he finishes his swing than when he had a steeper swing plane and his shoulder was stressed more on the finish. I still don’t believe he’s fully healthy, but this is 100% speculation on my part.

Bobby Witt Jr. already has seven home runs this season but just one has come on a pulled FBLD, which should make us optimistic about even more power coming as he ups his pull rate. It's 34.4% in May, which still isn't great but is better than the 29% mark from April. I mean, look at the parts of the park he's able to drive the ball out of. If he got out in front a little more, that's a 40-home-run season (not that we're mad about what he's doing right now).

Jesús Sánchez also appeared on my leaderboard when I looked at hitters with fast and short swings. He's making really strong zone contact, barreling the ball almost 10% of the time, and hitting the ball harder in the air than he has in years. If you believe in just X-stats, he should be hitting so much better across the board than he currently is. That's the part that gives me hope. However, he's also pulling the ball at the lowest rate of his career and has a 53% groundball rate. That's not an approach that's going to give you much power. I still think his home run pace will improve, given the quality of his contact, but we're not seeing a true power surge until he changes his approach.

Starling Marte has had a pretty good season for the Mets and is potentially a little underrated in fantasy circles. The 35-year-old has five home runs and eight steals to go along with a .260 average. He has just one home run on 19 pulled flyballs and line drives, but the only issue with his potential power breakout is that most of those are line drives. Marte has just a 20% flyball rate but his highest line drive rate in five years. That's why his barrel rate is up and his Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) is an impressive 41.2%. I'm not sure we will see a major power spike from Marte, but I do like his approach this year and think he could finish with a .270-.280 average with 15-20 home runs and 20+ steals which is another pretty good season.

Both Yainer Diaz and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have great exit velocities on their pulled FBLD and the same average launch angle of 20.1 degrees. While that may seem high, the only hitters on this leaderboard with a lower average launch angle on their pulled FBLD are Corbin Carroll, Alec Bohm, and Rafael Devers (maybe that's why Devers hasn't hit as many pulled home runs?). Vlad Jr's flyball rate is down to 29% as we continue to see that he is not the type of hitter who is going to elevate to the pull side regularly. He should see a few more home runs given how hard he's hitting the ball, but we're talking about something that puts him back on his 2023 pace, not something that gets him anywhere near 2021.

Yainer Diaz has also seen a major decrease in launch angle from 11.5 degrees last year to 7.8 degrees this year. His groundball rate is also up to 55%, which is also part of the reason he's not hitting as many home runs on pulled FBLD; there are far more line drives from him than pulled fly balls.

Dylan Moore has been incredibly hot at the plate of late and that's come without hitting many home runs on pulled FBLD. However, he is hitting plenty of them, which could be a reason behind his success. The veteran has shifted his whole approach at the plate, swinging less overall, chasing way less out of the zone, and posting a career-high 77.4% contact rate to go along with a career-low 9.4% SwStr%. What's more, when he is swinging, he's hunting pitches he can turn on. He has a 50.3% pull rate and a career-high 47% flyball rate. His launch angle being 26 degrees is a bit concerning and makes me think that some of these pulled fly balls that didn't get out are balls he got under too much; however, he's hitting .250 with six home runs in 40 games after never having hit more than 12 home runs in a full season. Who knows how long he can keep making this level of contact, but this approach is backing up his results.

I like what Bryan De La Cruz is doing. He's hitting the ball hard in the air, pulling it, and lifting it more often. His barrel rate is up to 11% and he's being far more aggressive in the zone. That has led to more swinging strikes, but his batting average hasn't suffered at all, and I think we could be looking at a .260-.270 season with 25 home runs. If he had a better team context around him, that could be more interesting in fantasy leagues.

We do this dance with Matt Chapman every year, don't we? He always has impressive barrel rates but never seems to pull the ball enough. In fact, Chapman is pulling the ball less than last year and hitting it in the air less than he has in five years. He's making more contact overall, but a 44% groundball rate from a hitter like Chapman isn't exactly the approach we want to see from a player with his skill set.

I loved Zach Neto coming into this year, and I'm still holding out hope for him to put together that 20/20 season as I see his name appear on lists like this. The quality of contact has just been good. (Neto left Wednesday night's game with an elbow injury because life is cruel and we can't have nice things).

Total Pulled FBLD Leaders

For fun, I also looked at who leads baseball in the percentage of flyballs and line drives that are pulled. I compared that to what their rates were last year to see if any hitters may see some power growth based on a clear approach change.

A few players on here who have raised their pulled FBLD rate are seeing some real improvements in performance, which could be connected to the change in approach. Salvador Perez (who showed up above as well) and Ryan Jeffers are both having strong years. Willie Calhoun has been good in his short stint with the Angels, even though his pulled FBLD rate increase isn't quite as high as what Perez and Jeffers are showing. Jake Bauers is another player off to a strong start who's trying to pull the ball more and benefiting from a good hitter's park. Luis Matos has the smallest sample size on here, but he got off to a hot start, so perhaps it's worth noting. Matos wasn't that good in Triple-A this year, so I'm not reading too much into it.

Ezequiel Tovar is also clearly attempting to pull the ball in the air more; however, his HR/FB rate is the same as last year and his barrel rate is lower. The BABIP is higher than last year and that might be the only reason he's seeing a batting average boost. Perhaps we could see a minor power increase though. Jeimer Candelario had a great season last year and has a much higher pop-up rate this year, so maybe the higher pulled FBLD rate was him trying to do too much with his new team. He's starting to settle a little bit. However, Tyler O'Neill is not really settling as much. His pulled FBLD rate is way up this year, perhaps as an adjustment to playing at Fenway Park. His barrel rate is way up this year, as is his HR/FB rate, but he's also popping more pitches up and striking out more, so perhaps selling out for power is not a great overall approach.

Jorge Polanco and Daulton Varsho are pulling more FBLD but not having good years overall. Maybe it's a strategy that isn't working for them. Varsho is seeing a little bit of a power boost, but the batting average remains a drain.