Placing odds on candidates in Tennessee Titans' search to replace Mike Vrabel | Estes
As the Tennessee Titans’ search to replace Mike Vrabel rolls through its first full week, let’s take a breath and a look at the candidates who've been reported at this point.
Bobby Slowik, Houston Texans offensive coordinator
Slowik is going to become a head coach somewhere soon, which would complete a heck of a story. He was working for Pro Football Focus not that long ago. After catching on with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, he has had a wonderful debut season as an OC.
Why him: DeMeco Ryans thought so much of Slowik in San Fran that he brought him to Houston as a relative unknown, and that decision paid off enormously. Slowik has worked wonders with the Texans’ offense and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. His analytics history and 49ers background (alongside Titans GM Ran Carthon) would check a lot of boxes for the Titans.
Why not: It’s awfully soon for him. Slowik would probably need to grow into a head-coaching job, as there’s a lot he hasn’t yet experienced in one season as an NFL OC.
My odds: 2-1
Brian Callahan, Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator
For five seasons, Callahan has been part of a successful Cincy offense under Zac Taylor, which makes him a branch of the lauded Sean McVay coaching tree.
Why him: Callahan is a more experienced coordinator than others in this group, and he has been vetted as a candidate for NFL head-coaching jobs before. He has an especially strong track record with quarterbacks, and it’d make sense to pair him with Will Levis.
Why not: The question is how much of the Bengals’ offensive success has had to do with Callahan as opposed to Taylor, who calls the plays, or elite talents like Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase.
My odds: 3-1
Aaron Glenn, Detroit Lions defensive coordinator
A former first-round pick and Pro Bowler as an NFL cornerback, Glenn has long been highly respected as a coach, having served the past three seasons as DC for Detroit. At 51, he’s older than all but one of the other names (Dan Quinn) on this list.
Why him: Glenn’s time with the Lions could be important in this Titans search. If there's a template for what the Titans are seeking to become, it'd be the ascending Lions. The ideal setup envisioned by Amy Adams Strunk is based on the partnership that exists among leadership in Detroit. So it’s not a coincidence that both Lions coordinators are on this list, and I’d consider both to be serious candidates. Glenn’s experience would figure to be a plus in a candidate pool that’s so young.
Why not: Statistically, the Lions’ defense hasn’t been very good under Glenn’s direction. There was improvement in 2023, and Detroit still ranked 19th – one spot lower than the Titans’ defense.
My odds: 3-1
Ben Johnson, Detroit Lions offensive coordinator
He has crushed it in two seasons as Dan Campbell’s OC, maintaining a top-five unit without the skill talent of other offenses producing at that level.
Why him: I’m convinced that Johnson is a coaching star in the making. I'm on record that Johnson is my No. 1 choice for the Titans job. Would it happen? The Lions ties could help, but …
Why not: There’s going to be competition. Johnson might be the most coveted coach in this NFL hiring circle, and the Titans won’t be considered a favorite to land him.
My odds: 4-1
ESTES: On Titans' list of coach candidates, one name stands out to me
Mike Macdonald, Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator
Another rising young coach, Macdonald has the Harbaugh family’s seal of approval. He spent a year as a defensive coordinator at Michigan before rejoining the Ravens’ staff as DC in 2022 – and he has thrived as a coach each time his responsibilities increased.
Why him: If you’re OK with hiring a defensive coach, there’s a lot to like about Macdonald. The Ravens’ defense has stumped some of the best offenses they’ve encountered this season.
Why not: There are some very good players on that Ravens defense who'd deserve credit, too. Like many of the other coaches on this list, the biggest questions with Macdonald have to do with overall experience. In his case, he has only worked as a part of one NFL franchise.
My odds: 5-1
David Shaw, former Stanford coach
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Friday morning that Shaw would interview over the weekend with the Titans. Shaw was Stanford University’s head coach from 2011-22, following Jim Harbaugh, but he did gain NFL experience as an offensive assistant earlier in his career. He's an intriguing, outside-the-box option for the Titans.
Why him: Shaw went 64-17 in his first six seasons coaching the Cardinal, going to the Rose Bowl three times and being ranked as high as No. 3 in the AP poll. While Shaw's coaching background is tied to Harbaugh, he also played in the 1990s for Dennis Green and Bill Walsh. Shaw is highly respected as a coach and has long been viewed as perhaps better suited for the pro game.
Why not: A lot of accomplished college coaches have struggled to win in the pros. Shaw also hasn’t coached in the NFL since 2005, and he ultimately couldn’t sustain long-term success at Stanford. The Cardinal went 6-18 in his final two seasons, including a 3-15 mark in the Pac 12.
My odds: 6-1
Brian Johnson, Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator
A former star quarterback at Utah, Johnson once led the Utes to a Sugar Bowl victory over Nick Saban’s Alabama. Johnson has been all over the place as a coach, working in college before being hired by the Eagles, who made him OC in 2023.
Why him: The previous Eagles OC, Shane Steichen, went to the AFC South and has fared well in Indy.
Why not: It’d be difficult for the Titans to hire Johnson after one season as an NFL coordinator when that season trended as poorly as that one did in Philly.
My odds: 8-1
Dan Quinn, Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator
At 53, Quinn is by far the most experienced coach on this list. Other than Antonio Pierce, he’s also the only previous NFL head coach on the list, having led the Atlanta Falcons for five-plus seasons and nearly winning a Super Bowl before getting fired for an 0-5 start in 2020.
Why him: You know what you’re getting with Quinn, whose trajectory in Atlanta was similar to Vrabel’s tenure in Tennessee. The Titans could do worse.
Why not: Did you see the Cowboys’ defense in that playoff loss to the Packers? Woof. Not saying that should crush Quinn’s hopes to be a head coach again, but it wasn’t a great look on a big stage.
My odds: 8-1
Thomas Brown, Carolina Panthers offensive coordinator
In 2019, Brown was coaching running backs at the University of South Carolina. He went from there to the Los Angeles Rams, learning under McVay before becoming the Panthers’ OC this past season.
Why him: Brown is on a fast track, and there’s good reason. He has coached some very good running backs over the years and has been around some very good offensive coaches. That background could help overcome a lack of experience as an NFL coordinator and play-caller.
Why not: Carolina had a miserable season. A lot of reasons for that, but when comparing Brown to other candidates in this cycle, why would the Titans favor him when his lone experience as an NFL coordinator was a part of that season?
My odds: 12-1
Mike Kafka, New York Giants offensive coordinator
It’s all about who you’ve been around in coaching, and Kakfa learned under one of the best in Andy Reid, coaching Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. For the past two seasons, Kafka has been the Giants’ OC under Brian Daboll.
Why him: I don’t think we have a clear sense yet, either way, for how Kafka would fare as an NFL head coach. The good from KC naturally gets credited to Reid and Mahomes and others, while a rough 2023 season in New York was more about Daboll.
Why not: Kafka would be a tough sell to Titans fans, given how much the Giants’ offense struggled in 2023. The Titans’ offense was better, and by season’s end, Kafka was being asked about his job security in New York. Not sure how that'd merit a promotion.
My odds: 12-1
Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders interim coach
Undrafted as a player, Pierce made a career as an NFL linebacker and was coaching that position when the Raiders named him interim coach this past season after firing Josh McDaniels. It went well. Pierce has been heavily backed by Raiders players to land the full-time role.
(UPDATE: After interviewing with the Titans, Pierce was indeed named permanent head coach by the Raiders, taking him off the board for other teams' searches.)
Reach Tennessean sports columnist Gentry Estes at gestes@tennessean.com and on the X platform (formerly known as Twitter) @Gentry_Estes.
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This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Who will Tennessee Titans hire? Setting odds for every coaching candidate
