Picks & Power Rankings: A week of big improvement (hopefully)

Sep. 8—I'll rip the bandage off and start with the bad news:

My picks in this very space were 3-4 last week. In what I thought was a relatively easy week of games to pick, reality crashed in to remind me that I know very little.

A brief look back shows that I was right on Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Coastal Carolina/UCLA (barely).

Keep this in mind while perusing my picks later.

Ole Miss at Tulane (2:30 p.m./ESPN2)

After putting up 73 points on Mercer last Saturday, the Ole Miss offense looks poised for big things in 2023. Jaxson Dart — who settled the Rebels' quarterback competition with his play — was PFF's highest graded college quarterback in Week 1 and Tre Harris was on the receiving end of all four of Dart's touchdown passes.

Defensively, the Rebels gave some concern in conceding a 75-yard touchdown run to Mercer quarterback Carter Peevy on the Bears' first play from scrimmage. But the Rebels defense took care of business from there out.

This week will be a whole new kind of challenge for this year's Rebels. Lane Kiffin knows it, too. He referred to Tulane as an "SEC football team" this week and said the Rebels will have their "hands full" with Willie Fritz's team.

Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt was sharp in Week 1 completing 14 of 15 throws and tossing four scores. The veteran signal caller has seemingly taken his game to another level since last season. With that, the Tulane program is riding a wave of momentum into this game.

Here are five keys to Ole Miss leaving New Orleans with a win Saturday evening, according to Michael Kats:

My prediction: 45-24, Ole Miss

Mississippi State vs. Arizona (6:30 p.m./SEC Network)

Well, the Bulldogs lead the SEC in rushing after their 48-7 throttling of SELA last Saturday. It started a bit slow on the offensive side, but things obviously got rolling down hill as the offensive line leaned on a thin Lions team.

Now, Mississippi State will face Arizona, who allowed nearly 210 yards per game on the ground last season.

It won't be that easy, however, as the Wildcats are winners of their three of their last four, including a November win over UCLA last fall. Quarterback Jayden de Laura threw three interceptions against Zach Arnett's defense in Week 2 last season, but he went on to finish third in the Pac-12 in passing yardage and posted 24 touchdowns to 13 picks.

Mississippi State picked up where it left off defensively in 2022 a week ago. While Jedd Fisch has done a good job so far with the Arizona program (they were 1-11 in 2021 and 5-7 a year ago), and the Wildcat offense will provide a valuable early-season test for the Bulldogs defense, I expect MSU is able to get this one comfortably.

Here are five keys for the Bulldogs this Saturday, via Benjamin Rosenberg:

My prediction: 37-24, MSU

SEC Power Rankings

1. Georgia

The offense will have plenty of time to figure things out with this schedule. The king is still the king until someone takes the throne and crown away.

2. Alabama

Nick Saban was smiling for a reason this offseason. His defense will be plenty good enough to compete with Jalen Milroe at quarterback. However, it will still be interesting to see if Milroe is more Jalen Hurts or Blake Sims as the season goes forward.

3. LSU

Yes, the Tigers got beat up pretty good in the second half by FSU. I still think the talent gives them the best chance to contend with Alabama in the West. Could we see a change at quarterback? Maybe one that still involves Jayden Daniels ability to run the ball. We'll have to wait and see.

4. Texas A&M

The Aggies scored 30 or more points in just two games last season, with their high of 38 coming in an upset of LSU in the final game. The talent on defense is there, but now Bobby Petrino has the offense posing a threat.

5. Tennessee

I'm still not sold on Joe Milton being a superstar at quarterback. I may eat those words this season, but we have a good sample size on him at this point. With that said, the Vols feel like the team between tiers at this spot. They could fit in with the top four, but could well drop into the middle group, as well.

6. Ole Miss

It was Mercer, but the Rebel offense appeared to have an extra gear it didn't last year this past Saturday. Quarterbacks are usually better in Year 2 under Lane Kiffin, and Jaxson Dart certainly fits the part. Pete Golding's defense will determine Ole Miss' fate this season.

7. Arkansas

The Hogs face Kent State and BYU over the next two weeks, then a difficult five-game stretch awaits with LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Alabama and Mississippi State. They need Rocket Sanders to get healthy and rejoin the backfield as quickly as possible.

8. Kentucky

It didn't look fluid to start off last week, but the Kentucky offense got going with new quarterback Devin Leary in last Saturday's 44-14 win over Ball State. The Wildcats have time to get the gears turning over the next four weeks.

9. Mississippi State

They used to throw it. Now they run it. The Bulldogs went from the top of the league in passing statistics to the top of the league in rushing numbers. And the defense is still really good. Mississippi State will again be a factor in the West race.

10. Auburn

The Tigers can score again. Now, time for that Hugh Freeze first-year magic to hit the road with Auburn as they travel to Berkeley to face Cal. I still think Auburn will be near the bottom of the West while playing spoiler a time or two this season.

11. South Carolina

At least the Gamecocks were tested against a Power 5 opponent in Week 1. It just didn't go well. Spencer Rattler will no doubt be up and down this season, but other areas look like they could just mostly be down. Like the offensive line.

12. Missouri

This team is much more stable than South Carolina, but I do feel like their ceiling lands them in the right place on this ranking. The Tigers have a solid roster and appear to have plugged holes left by departures from last season.

13. Florida

The Gators will get to beat up on an FCS foe this weekend, which is nice. In fact, the mental state of this team and program could determine a lot this season.

14. Vanderbilt

We'll actually find out much more about the Dores today than last week. I don't think they have a chance to move up more than a spot on this list, but this game should provide a glimpse into how possible that is.

More Week 2 picks

Nebraska at Colorado (-3)

It's crazy to pick against Deion right now, but Im skeptical about the Buffs being able to keep up the crazy pace they used to beat TCU last Saturday. Colorado 30, Nebraska 28

Texas A&M (-4) at Miami

Miami proved to be the true Miami of college football last week. And it's good to see the Canes win a nonconference game handedly. But I think the Aggies are much better. TAMU 31, UM 13

Texas at Alabama (-7)

Quinn Ewers going down in last year's matchup provided a huge "what if." But this year there will be no question that the Alabama defense is in control. Bama 24-13

Utah (-8) at Baylor

The Utes were able to feast against an outmatched Florida defense in Week 0, and I feel like Baylor bounces back from embarrassment at home. Utah 20, Baylor 13

Wisconsin (-6) at Washington State

This one could be fun. Two very capable quarterbacks leading potent offenses. I think Wazzu covers in a close loss. Wisconsin 41, WSU 38

John Luke is the Digital Director for the Daily Journal. You can reach him at john.mccord@djournal.com.