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PGA betting: Three head-to-head matchups to bet for the Phoenix Open

pamela maldonado
Betting analyst
·3 min read

The PGA finally feels like it’s in full swing with the Waste Management Phoenix Open teeing off Thursday at TPC Scottsdale in Arizona. Calling for an outright is fun but those types of wagers are more volatile than full tournament head-to-head matchups. I’m dipping my toes into the head-to-head market now that the NFL is near the end of the season with the Super Bowl on deck.

Here are three head-to-head matchups to bet for the Phoenix Open. Odds via BetMGM.

Collin Morikawa -125 vs. Justin Thomas

Morikawa is one of the best ball strikers on tour. In the last 36 rounds, Morikawa is fourth in the field for both strokes gained via approach and ball striking. Since October 2021, only twice has he lost strokes with his irons. Morikawa is one of the best because he is consistent. Thomas on the other hand, has lost strokes off the tee in back-to-back events, while losing strokes with his iron play in three of his last six tournaments. Since both players are volatile putters, that’s where the risk lies. However, this is a fade of Thomas. Losing four strokes ball striking at Sentry Tournament of Champions on a part of his game that is supposed to be his strength spells trouble.

Tom Kim -110 vs. Viktor Hovland

I love Kim this week as a potential outright winner.

In the last 36 rounds, Kim has been an excellent and more consistent ball striker — fifth in the field behind big-name players like Rory McIlroy and Morikawa. Plus, Kim is seventh in the field for strokes gained total, which led to a T6 in the American Express. I’m banking on the all-around complete player showing up. Kim not only has been a solid iron player, but compared to Hovland, he is also the better short-game player, both around the green and putting. Like any golfer, Kim can struggle with the flat stick, losing six strokes in two of his last eight events, but he’s shown a propensity to bounce back. The one caveat, Kim has not played TPC Scottsdale. However, the balance in his game bodes well for the layout.

Rory McIlroy +105 vs. Jon Rahm

The most anticipated matchup in golf this week. I will gladly wager on a plus-money option for the player I think will win this tournament. McIlroy has been crushing the Euro tour to close the 2022 year, including winning the Dubai Desert Classic last month. McIlroy has gained strokes in every single category in five straight events. Though competing in softer fields, his data points are lush with green stats. You can argue that Rahm has been equally impressive, winning the American Express and finishing T7 in the Farmers Insurance Open, but this is the year of Rory.