The Des Moines Register’s annual Big 12 Conference predictions column means the football season is almost here. Thank goodness. Many of us are eager to start writing about who’s going to be good and who isn’t.

Gambling, league expansion and which transfer portal players landed on which rosters are topics that have been discussed more than ever during this about-to-end off-season. Way more than ever before.

So, indulge us as we take this probably brief timeout from discussing 14 teams or 12, who’s following Colorado through the Big 12 entrance, and who’s been breaking NCAA gambling rules, for this announcement:

Texas and Oklahoma will join the SEC in 2024 with the momentum of going 1-2 in their final Big 12 Conference season. That’s the bottom line of this 3,000-word exercise of research, facts, opinion and speculation.

• Newcomers BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF don’t appear to have the talent to hang with the Longhorns and Sooners.

• Kansas State winning its second conference championship game in a row? Coach Chris Klieman’s team should be good, but I’m not certain it’s that good.

• TCU playing in the College Football Playoff’s national championship game again? No one saw that coming in 2022, so a repeat would surprise the college football world. Again.

More: Peterson: Who follows Colorado through Big 12's? Here’s a vote for Connecticut and maybe Arizona?

But before we get to breaking down the 14 teams, I leave you with this:

Will Arizona or Oregon or Connecticut accept membership into the Big 12 before the conference’s Dec. 2 championship game? Will Arizona, Arizona State and Utah come as a package deal because none of them want to be singled out for breaking up the Pac-12?

Sorry, I couldn’t resist.

No. 1 Texas

Why the Longhorns here?

Coach Steve Sarkisian’s team is loaded. It’s so chock full of talent that it’s up to Sark and the staff not to mess them up. All-Everything running back Bijan Robinson is gone. One-for-one, he’s irreplaceable. Three-for-one, which is what likely will happen, and the Longhorns aren’t likely to lose much. And we all know that when Texas successfully runs the ball, Texas usually wins. “We've got a roster full of players who quite frankly came to the University of Texas to try to win a Big 12 Championship,” Sarkisian said at Big 12 Media Days. “We've got one more opportunity to do that. Our guys are focused on that.”

Potential issues

Like a basketball team trying to find enough shots to keep multiple scorers happy, how do the Longhorns keep Arch Manning and Maalik Murphy engaged while playing behind the All-American potential of Quinn Ewers? That remains to be seen, but it’s clear who’s No. 1. “Quinn is extremely talented,” Sarkisian told the Big 12 press. “There's not a throw he can't make. He's got a very high football IQ. If things go the way we think they can go, the pundits are probably right. He is a first-round draft pick quarterback.”

Does not face: Cincinnati, UCF, Oklahoma State, West Virginia.

Randy Peterson’s 2023 record prediction

11-1 overall, 9-0 in Big 12 play

No. 2 Oklahoma

Why the Sooners here?

Last season didn’t cut it by Oklahoma standards. Records of 6-7 overall and 3-6 in the Big 12 could have had fans calling for Brent Venables’ firing had he not been in his first season as head coach. Losing against Florida State 35-32 in the Cheez-It Bowl wasn’t exactly a great way to end a season, either. I see at least 10 wins this season. Improve a defense against whom opponents averaged 30.0 points a game (99^th nationally), and there’s a chance.

Potential issues

Anyone thinking the schedule-maker would intentionally make life tough in the Sooners’ final Big 12 season – well, it didn’t happen. How’s this for a break before heading off to the SEC? No Kansas State. No Baylor. No Texas Tech. No problem? That’s another story. Games against Texas, Oklahoma State and BYU won’t exactly be cinch wins. Veteran quarterback Dillon Gabriel, with 11,000 passing yards and 95 passing touchdowns at UCF and Oklahoma, must stay healthy. The defense must figure out how to stop rushers. “It goes without saying we went 6-7 last year and fell well below our expectations and our standards at Oklahoma,” Venables said.

Does not face: Kansas State, Houston, Baylor, Texas Tech.

Randy Peterson’s 2023 record prediction

11-1 overall, 8-1 in Big 12 play

No. 3 Kansas State

Why the Wildcats here?

Winning the 2022 Big 12 Conference championship game became almost like an after-thought after TCU advanced to the College Football Playoff championship game. Remember, though, that Chris Klieman’s team beat those Horned Frogs in the league’s playoff game. Maintaining momentum includes quarterback Will Howard, a veteran despite playing behind Adrian Martinez some of last season. Florida State transfer running back Treshaun Ward had 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns in two seasons before transferring, so he’s got the potential to form a nice 1-2 punch with D.J. Giddens, who played behind all-Big 12 Deuce Vaughn. “They don't need to be Deuce,” Klieman said.

Potential issues

Kansas State had eight-win seasons three times in the past four years,. Doing it again is certainly achievable, especially when you don't have to face Oklahoma. Still, K-State faces tough road games against Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas. “What you did yesterday is great, but it pales in comparison to what you can do today,” Klieman said at Big 12 Media Days.

Does not face: BYU, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, West Virginia.

Randy Peterson’s 2023 record prediction

9-3 overall, 7-2 in Big 12 play

No. 4 TCU

Why the Horned Frogs here?

More: Max Duggan named inaugural Bob Bowlsby award winner as Big 12 male athlete of the year

This comment from coach Sonny Dykes at Big 12 Media Days is worth repeating: “We want to fly under the radar a little bit. I think it's a role that we relish. We want to over-perform and under-promise. That's kind of our mentality in our program.” Under the radar? Fat chance, considering the Horned Frogs played in last season’s College Football Playoff championship game. All-World quarterback Max Duggan, who defined the cliché “catching lightning in a bottle,” is gone. He played because starter Chandler Morris hurt his knee against Colorado in the opening game last season. Morris was the starter for a reason. He’s good. He’ll play behind a veteran offensive line, and he’ll throw to receivers that should be very good.

Potential issues

TCU will be good again this season, but national title game good? That’s a stretch. The defense is loaded. The offense, under new coordinator Kendall Briles, will go quicker. Still, eight players from last season’s team were drafted. Can Morris win the close game that Duggan won? “We lost some really good football players,” Dykes said. “Max Duggan finished second in the Heisman Trophy. We had three wide receivers drafted. We had an offensive lineman drafted in the second round. We lost some significant weapons. The thing I love, though, is the guys we have coming back. What happened last year is certainly not going to have any bearing on what's going to happen this year.”

Does not face: Cincinnati, Kansas, Oklahoma State, UCF.

Randy Peterson’s 2023 record prediction

9-3 overall, 6-3 in Big 12 play

Tie-No. 5 Baylor

Why the Bears here?

This team has upside, starting with quarterbacks Blake Shapen and Mississippi State transfer Sawyer Robertson. Both are adequate, not great. As seemingly is always the case at Baylor, quarterbacks have above-solid receivers to throw to. Shapen, however, threw 10 interceptions against just 18 touchdowns last season. Oklahoma State transfer Dominic Richardson should add depth to the running back position, where Richard Reese is coming off a freshman All-American season in which he rushed for 972 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Potential issues

There’s no Oklahoma or Oklahoma State on the schedule, but there are late-season road games at Kansas State and TCU. New defensive coordinator Matt Prowledge returns just five starters; his side of the ball will include many transfers. The whole team, for that matter, is loaded with transfer portal players, something new to coach Dave Aranda’s philosophy. “We've brought in a fair amount of new players,” Aranda said. “I'm excited to be able to see them express themselves, and go on this journey of self-discovery through the season, and really show up when it matters most. I know that's why they came here.”

Does not face: BYU, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State.

Randy Peterson’s 2023 record prediction

8-4 overall, 5-4 in Big 12 play

Tie-No. 5 Oklahoma State

Why the Cowboys here?

More: As usual, Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy had his outspoken moments at Big 12 Media Days

All four newcomers are on the schedule. Texas, TCU and Texas Tech aren’t. If the Cowboys are going to be good, it’ll be largely because of transfers. “We can look across the country in the portal,” coach Mike Gundy said at Big 12 Media Days. “Players that are playing on national championship teams are leaving and going to other schools. Players are leaving after one year; players are leaving after five years. I guess if you have 10 or 12 go out, you bring 10 or 12 in, and you get your roster set and try to have a good spring ball, good summer, and get ready to play in September.”

Potential issues

Oklahoma State lost heavily in the transfer portal. The defections included quarterback Spencer Sanders, who’s now battling for time at Ole Miss. Alan Bowman, whose career has included stops at Texas Tech and Michigan, will contend with Garret Rangel to be the starter. He’s not great, so whoever becomes QB1 must take advantage of very veteran receivers. “We'll run this thing through half of fall camp, somewhere in that area, and if we feel like we know what direction we want to go, I'm going to be for making that decision at that time,” Gundy said at Media Days. “If we don't feel like we know, then we won't make that decision. They have to be able to lead the team, and be effective to throw the football.”

Does not face: Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Texas

Randy Peterson’s 2023 record prediction

8-4 overall, 5-4 in Big 12 play

Tie-No. 5 Texas Tech

Why the Red Raiders here?

What Joey McGuire accomplished in his first season as a college head coach was spectacular, coaching Texas Tech to its first conference winning record since 2009. Was it a blip? We’ll see, but at least on paper, 2023 should be pretty good again. The Red Raiders averaged 461.4 yards and 34.2 points last season. They averaged a Big 12-best 302.0 passing yards a game. And they’ve got future pro Tyler Shough slinging passes again. The problem has been staying healthy. Shough, who Iowa State beat in the 2020 Fiesta Bowl when Shough was Oregon’s quarterback, hasn’t played more than seven games in any season. “This is going to be the first time in his collegiate career that he has the same offensive coordinator in back-to-back years,” McGuire told the Media Days media. “The experience that he has − he is a pro.”

Potential issues

Tech has the talent to equal last season’s eight-win team. With the parity the Big 12 offers, there’s also a chance the record goes the other way. There’s not a weak spot on the team, but it isn’t what you’d call a juggernaut, either. Not playing Oklahoma and Oklahoma State is a positive. Oregon in the second game presents a problem, not only because it’s Shough against his former school, but because the Ducks are usually good. There’s a game at BYU, and I doubt many coaches look forward to making that Provo, Utah, trip. On the schedule’s end, it’s at Texas. By then, the Red Raiders already should be bowl-eligible. “I know this is going to be coach-speak, but we really do have to handle the expectations that maybe a lot of guys on our roster have not had before,” McGuire said. “We've got a really good opportunity to be a really good football team.”

Does not face: Oklahoma, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati.

Randy Peterson’s 2023 record prediction

7-5 overall, 5-4 in Big 12 play

No. 8 UCF

Why the Knights here?

Look at the schedule – there’s no one that Gus Malzahn’s team cannot beat. Actually, look at some teams the Knights don’t play, which would be TCU and Texas. That’s an overly cordial greeting to the Big 12, and a reason UCF must be shown some respect. Sure, it plays at Kansas State and Oklahoma, but doing it with a high-end veteran quarterback could make up the difference. That’d be John Rhys Plumlee, an Ole Miss transfer who passed for 2,586 yards and 14 touchdowns last season – when he wasn’t rushing 159 times for 862 yards and 11 touchdowns. UCF might be the best of the conference newcomers.

Potential issues

There are five conference road games and a roadie against Boise State in Week 2. “The new kid on the block, we expected that. A lot of travel.” Malzahn said. Keeping the wealth of high school talent in Florida – and specifically in Orlando – could be tough considering the Knights no longer are the only alternative to the SEC-ACC. There’s a plethora of Big 12 teams with a lot to offer Floridians, too.

Does not face: BYU, Iowa State, TCU, Texas.

Randy Peterson’s 2023 record prediction

6-6 overall, 4-5 in Big 12 play

Tie-No. 9 Iowa State

Why the Cyclones here?

Matt Campbell’s team still must show it can again start winning the close ones. Last season’s 0-6 record in those games cannot be repeated if there’s to be hope for improvement. Missed field goals. Dropped passes. Injured running backs. Poor quarterback decisions. Simply: Last season was a mess for a program that was 14-19 in one-score outcomes before 2022. With a young team, one of Campbell’s youngest since coming on board in 2016, the Cyclones must prove themselves all over again.

Potential issues

The quarterback position is a wild card, so much so that the player who starts on Sept. 2 against Northern Iowa at Jack Trice Stadium might not be in that role during the second half of the season. Running back? Same story. That’s been the most injury-prone position on the team. Will the offensive line finally show consistent improvement under new position coach Ryan Clanton? For the first time during Campbell’s seven Iowa State seasons, there’s a new offensive coordinator. We expect Nate Scheelhaase will infuse new energy and new plays to a side of the ball that wasn’t good last season.

Does not face: Houston, UCF, West Virginia, Texas Tech.

Randy Peterson’s 2023 record prediction

5-7 overall, 3-6 in Big 12 play

Tie-No. 9 Kansas

Why the Jayhawks here?

Even with a veteran team, coach Lance Leipold’s Jayhawks aren’t getting a ton of respect. That happens after losing seven of your last eight games, after starting 2022 at 5-0. The bottom line is that Kansas football no longer is basketball’s warm-up act. Jalon Daniels could be one of the Big 12’s top quarterbacks. His offensive line was above solid. Devin Neal (1,090 yards last season) leads a strong running backs room, and Mason Fairchild has star potential at tight end. Multiple deep receiving threats add to an offense with enough firepower to dominate some defenses – especially when Daniels is on his A-game.

Potential issues

As good and entertaining as the offense is, there’s still the problem of stopping someone. Nine times last season, opponents scored 30 or more points. Opponents also averaged 469 yards a game in 2022. Transfers are expected to help, especially in replacing all the starting defensive linemen, but still, they must prove they can stop (or at least slow down) the rush. Opponents averaged 209 ground yards a game.

Does not face: Houston, Baylor, TCU, West Virginia.

Randy Peterson’s 2023 record prediction

5-7 overall, 3-6 in Big 12 play

Tie-No. 9 Cincinnati

Why the Bearcats here?

Scott Satterfield hit the transfer portal hard after replacing Luke Fickell. Primarily, he went after offensive linemen, and not just the backup variety. The Bearcats needed as much immediate help up front as they could get. Various websites placed the over-under number for wins at 7.5, but on the surface that seems a bit stout. Beneath the surface, there’s no Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech or Texas on the schedule. Looking deeper, Cincinnati has Oklahoma, Iowa State and Baylor among its home opponents – and that includes the Sooners in the Bearcats’ home-opening game of this new Big 12 era.

Potential issues

How will 21 transfers since last season impact a team with a new coaching staff and playing in a new conference? “You don't normally like to have that many come through the portal, but in the transition we had a lot of players leave,” Satterfield said. Let’s not forget that Satterfield’s quarterback, Emory Jones, also is new to the school after playing at Florida and then Arizona State. “I feel like most all the guys that we've brought in will help us this year,” Satterfield said.

Does not face: Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech, Texas.

Randy Peterson’s 2023 record prediction

5-7 overall, 3-6 in Big 12 play

Tie-No. 12 BYU

Why the Cougars here?

Is coach Kalani Sitake’s team eventually the Notre Dame of the Big 12? National recruiting base. International fan base. I wonder. Quarterback Kedon Slovis is where it starts – and he’s got the credentials after passing for 7,576 yards and 58 touchdowns in three seasons at USC, and for 2,397 yards and 10 touchdowns last season at Pittsburgh. That’s 9,973 yards and 68 touchdowns (against 33 interceptions) heading into his final season. That’s impressive enough to make Slovis All-Big 12 potential.

Potential issues

BYU has sought big-time recognition for years, but rarely got it despite its solid success. Now that time has come. “I know we're at BYU so it's a little bit different and unique,” Sitake said. “I need to find ways to turn that uniqueness into a strength, and make sure it's a competitive advantage when we get on the field.” Now, it’s time for the Cougars to prove their point. That starts with defense, which must be the most improved unit on the team.

Does not face: Houston, UCF, Kansas State, Baylor.

Randy Peterson’s 2023 record prediction

4-8 overall, 2-7 in Big 12 play

Tie-No. 12 Houston

Why the Cougars here?

Even if coach Dana Holgorsen’s team hits the 6-win bowl threshold, it could finish way down the Big 12 standings. Former Texas Tech quarterback Donovan Smith is the likely starter. He’s good, throwing for 1,476 yards and 11 touchdowns during the first five games in 2022. He’s got star potential. Unquestionably, he’s the most significant player on a team that’s won 20 games over the past two seasons. A 3-0 start is likely, with games against Texas-San Antonio, Rice and Sam Houston. Houston won’t face Oklahoma, so that’s another plus, as Holgorsen (formerly at West Virginia) returns to the Big 12. “Without getting too much into it, there used to be a few layups back in the day,” Holgorsen said. “There aren't any layups now.”

Potential issues

Last season’s defense was horrible. Opponents averaged 32.5 points a game against what became the nation’s 112nd-ranked scoring defense − and now the Cougars have stepped up a competitive class. Beyond what’s expected to be one of the Big 12’s top defensive fronts, quite honestly there’s not much else on that side of the ball. And let’s not forget an early schedule that includes CFP finalist TCU and rising Texas Tech as the first two Big 12 opponents.

Does not face: Iowa State, BYU, Kansas, Texas.

Randy Peterson’s 2023 record prediction

4-8 overall, 2-7 in Big 12 play

No. 14 West Virginia

Why the Mountaineers here?

The heat is on, and I’m not talking about summertime heat throughout the country. The heat is on coach Neal Brown, whose Mountaineers have a 22-25 record during his four seasons. Almost everyone who knows college football is picking his team to finish dead last in the 14-team league. “I was sitting on the beach when (the program’s media relations director) sent me a text, and I made the mistake of looking at it,” Brown said at the Big 12’s Media Days. “From that point on, my vacation was over. I went into football mode.” Yes, that quote could come back to haunt him.

Potential issues

There’s a statistic out there that tells a lot – West Virginia is 4-21, including 0-14 the past two seasons, when it doesn’t rush for at least 100 yards in a game. It would help to get off to a good start, but that’s iffy, considering two of the first three games are against Penn State and Pittsburgh. “Offensively, this is going to be our best group,” Brown said confidently. “And then we have 132 starts returning on the offensive line. If that's not the most in the country, it's got to be close. We’re looking forward to proving everybody wrong.”

Does not face: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Iowa State.

Randy Peterson’s 2023 record prediction

3-9 overall, 2-7 in Big 12 play

Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson is in his 51st year writing sports for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, and on Twitter @RandyPete

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Big 12's first 14-team season could include epic surprises