Panthers mailbag: Predicting Carolina’s win-loss record in Year 1 of Dave Canales era

The Carolina Panthers entered the heart of their offseason program this week with the launch of organized team activities.

While there is plenty of optimism surrounding the start of the Dave Canales era, Panthers fans have been here before and know what it’s like to be let down by a new regime. So, naturally they are curious about the future of their favorite franchise.

That’s why The Charlotte Observer has brought back the Panthers mailbag to answer the questions from the Carolina faithful.

Here are some standout questions from social media:

Predicting Panthers’ success in 2024

Joel asks: (The Panthers) are projected by many outlets to be the worst team in the NFL again this season. Do you think this is a realistic outlook or should fans be more optimistic in a middling/mediocre division?

Mike Kaye: It’s natural to expect the worst from a team coming off a 2-15 record.

The Panthers are on their third full-time head coach in three years and they’ve had two interim coaches on the turnstile in between. Their 2023 draft class offered up listless Year 1 results, and some national pundits are already out on quarterback Bryce Young. Oh, and they hired a head coach most fans had never heard of before January.

Again, pessimism should be expected. But when a bar is set low, pleasant surprises can emerge.

The Panthers should be better than they were last season. They have a staff that is largely cultivated by a shared vision, as Canales has hired mostly former coworkers from Seattle and Tampa Bay on offense. Ejiro Evero did a swell job last season with the defense, and his entire staff is back.

The team clearly upgraded the wide receiver depth chart, and the brass feels that their two new highly paid guards will stabilize the offensive line. They’ve also added intriguing young weapons at running back and tight end to surround Young.

On defense, they’ve lost some heavy hitters with Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu now in the NFC East. But they’ve also added some proven role players in Jadeveon Clowney, D.J. Wonnum, Josey Jewell, A’Shawn Robinson and Jordan Fuller to try to make up the difference. And if Jaycee Horn and Shaq Thompson can stay healthy this season, both of their positions will be significantly improved after injury-riddled 2023 results.

Look, the Panthers aren’t going to be contenders overnight. They aren’t built like a team that can go from worst to first, and with the team’s recent history, it’d be asinine to predict that result — even in what’s been considered a lowly division.

So let’s do a game-by-game prediction with the schedule now set:

Week 1: @ NO (L, 0-1)

Week 2: vs. LAC (L, 0-2)

Week 3: @ LV (W, 1-2)

Week 4: vs. CIN (L, 1-3)

Week 5: @ CHI (L, 1-4)

Week 6: vs. ATL (W, 2-4)

Week 7: @ WAS (L, 2-5)

Week 8: @ DEN (L, 2-6)

Week 9: vs. NO (W, 3-6)

Week 10: vs. NYG (W, 4-6)

Week 11: BYE

Week 12: vs. KC (L, 4-7)

Week 13: vs. TB (W, 5-7)

Week 14: @ PHI (L, 5-8)

Week 15: vs. DAL (L, 5-9)

Week 16: vs. AZ (W, 6-9)

Week 17: @ TB (L, 6-10)

Week 18: @ ATL (L, 6-11)

Five or six wins feels about right for the Panthers.

While I do believe they’ll finish among the bottom 10 teams in the league this season, I also think last year’s fairly low bar gives them plenty of room to leap, so to speak, in win total.

Tripling last year’s victories would be a big win for the Panthers, as they could sell that growth made by Canales and general manager Dan Morgan. A six-win campaign would surpass all of Matt Rhule’s single-season win totals, so that would be something to point out as improvement, in theory. Again, low bar.

On paper, this is a relatively weak schedule based on last year’s results. The Panthers can take advantage of playing other mediocre teams early on at home. Ultimately, they’ll probably finish no better than third in the division, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them spoil some runs for their NFC South rivals with a few home wins.

I think mediocre is a clear improvement over putrid, which is what last year turned out to be. I predicted the Panthers would go 8-9 last season, and I learned my lesson.

Chuba Hubbard, Jonathon Brooks and veteran RB redemption, oh my!

Panthers / Hornets fan asks: What is your RB room prediction?

Canales wants to run the ball this season. He has stated that verbally (several times), and the Panthers have built their roster accordingly.

Along with presumed starter Chuba Hubbard, the Panthers have held onto well-paid veteran running back Miles Sanders, who has a guaranteed salary this season. The team has also added former first-round pick, Rashaad Penny, and they selected former Texas running back Jonathon Brooks in the second round of last month’s NFL Draft.

Journeyman running back Mike Boone and kick returner Raheem Blackshear are also on the roster, and undrafted rookie Jaden Shirden will try to make the practice squad.

Regarding a prediction, here’s how the rotation will probably shake out:

With Brooks working his way back from ACL surgery, Penny is likely to take on his snaps during OTAs and the early days of training camp.

The Panthers signed Penny to a cheap one-year deal with the idea that he could push Hubbard and Sanders this summer, as the former Seahawks and Eagles running back has a history with Canales and offensive coordinator Brad Idzik from their time together in Seattle. Penny knows the coaches’ language and what they are looking for, giving him an edge in revitalizing his career.

Hubbard will be the primary back heading into camp, and with him entering the final year of his rookie deal, he has every reason to go all-out this season. The Panthers can take advantage of that contract situation by using Hubbard to the fullest degree without facing a financial burden if the excess usage becomes a problem down the road. Hubbard has improved immensely over the past two years, and his role as a “possession” back has served him well recently. He should be No. 1 on the depth chart entering Week 1.

Sanders — like Hubbard entering the final year of his deal — has every reason to step up this summer. The Panthers, in theory, could cut Sanders with a post-June 1 designation if they feel like he doesn’t fit the program. But it would behoove everyone for Sanders to work out, as he is getting paid $6 million regardless of his employment with the team.

Sanders should be able to relieve Hubbard as a passing down player, as he can be utilized as a receiver out of the backfield if necessary. Penny will be Sanders’ primary competition for snaps in camp.

When Brooks is cleared from his knee injury, expect the Panthers use him in a package-specific role. There is absolutely no reason to force Brooks to the front of the line early in his rookie season. As a player who does a lot of things well, and is a home-run threat of sorts, the Panthers can use Brooks in specific situations until he is ready to carry the baton as the three-down back.

Brooks is the future, Hubbard is the present, and Penny and Sanders are fighting for career redemption.

Boone and Blackshear should be expected to battle for a fourth or fifth spot as a special teams contributor/occasional gadget weapon. Blackshear was an excellent returner last season, while Boone has carved out a career by playing on special teams — mostly in coverage.

Adding to the secondary ...

Jake asks: What is the status of signing another DB? I’m worried about what teams are gonna do to us through the air opposite of Horn this year.

Cornerback is still clearly a need. The theoretical drop-off between Jaycee Horn and Troy Hill/Dane Jackson is far too wide to justify standing still at the position given Horn’s injury history.

Based on the way Morgan has answered questions about that position following the draft, it appears obvious that he views the position as being an area for improvement. But the reality of the situation is that the cornerback market is quite limited.

While Stephon Gilmore has been the talk of the town as of late, he’s about to turn 34 and likely won’t play on the cheap, even for his hometown team.

Veterans like Adoree’ Jackson and Steven Nelson are reasonable options, but they might want to wait out the market for better offers or contenders. Xavien Howard is an intriguing name but his play dropped off last year, and he’s probably in a similar market to Gilmore from a financial standpoint.

The Panthers won’t just sit on their hands at the position, but the need isn’t likely to be addressed until the summer after the potential post-June 1 cuts take place. There could be a surprise or two on the market at cornerback, and the Panthers could benefit from adding those offseason castaways, especially if they are willing to work on “prove it” deals.

Former Panthers cornerback James Bradberry, now with the Eagles, might makes sense if he’s released in the wake of a youth movement at the position in Philadelphia. There are other players — maybe not as notable — who could be cut loose as well with teams weighing playing time and cap space after the draft.

Morgan has said — multiple times — that every need can’t be addressed in one offseason. He’s right, but the Panthers could look to patch a hole or two during the summer to give themselves insurance at cornerback.

Hopefully, those results can turn out better than the Justin Houston signing at the edge rusher position last year.