Packers vs. Bears: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 1
Both the Jordan Love era and the 2023 regular season will begin for the Green Bay Packers on Sunday at Soldier Field in Chicago. Love will make his first start as the new Packers starting quarterback in Week 1, and he’ll attempt to secure his first win as a starter against a Bears team the Packers have beaten eight straight times.
Can the Packers continue their dominance over their long-running rivals with Love at quarterback, or is a new era of the rivalry dawning?
Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 1 against the Bears:
Who creates big plays without Watson?
Top wide receiver Christian Watson won’t play due to a hamstring injury. His absence removes the Packers’ top playmaker and vertical threat in an already inexperienced passing game, so how will Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love generate the explosive plays that create points? Romeo Doubs can win 1-on-1 matchups, and both Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave can really run, but there’s no doubt that losing Watson — who sparked the offense to life over the second half of last season — will hurt the Packers’ ability to create chunk gains. His speed can stretch the field and open up space for both the run game and the intermediate passing game, but with Watson out, the Bears can now play more aggressively. Getting a big play down the field to Doubs, Musgrave or Reed might need to happen early for the Packers passing game or space for the offense could get condensed in a hurry.
Is the run defense improved?
Justin Fields is going to extend plays and likely create a few explosive runs with his legs, but the Packers have an opportunity to show what the traditional run defense has in the tank to start 2023. The Bears are a run-centered offense with three capable running backs and an offensive line that ranked among the NFL’s best in run-blocking grade at PFF last season. While the Packers emphasized improvement against the run this offseason, it’s simply hard to know if they’ll actually be better up front until the real games are played. Defensive linemen TJ Slaton, Devonte Wyatt and rookies Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks and linebackers Quay Walker and De’Vondre Campbell will be in the spotlight on Sunday. The Packers would score a big advantage if the run defense can force the Bears into obvious passing situations on Sunday.
Offense featuring the running backs?
With Christian Watson out and inexperience all over the pass-catching positions, the Packers will likely attempt to depressurize the situation for Jordan Love by featuring Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Jones is a slashing runner and can be a weapon out of the backfield, and the Packers believe Dillon will be a more consistent playmaker by lowering his pad level and winning the leverage battle. During last year’s win in Chicago, Jones and Dillon got 35 total touches and produced 169 total yards. While the Bears will likely build their defensive game plan around stopping the running back pair, the Packers must make Chicago’s new-look defense prove it early. And Matt LaFleur must have plays designed for getting Jones or Dillon in space in creative ways. In the past, LaFleur has been at his playcalling best when he’s missing weapons. In football, necessity is often the mother of invention.
Who protects and pressures the quarterback better?
Protecting the quarterback and pressuring the quarterback are two fundamental elements of playing winnig football. So, who finds an edge in terms of protecting and pressuring during the season opener? The Packers return all five starting offensive linemen (and a few key reserves) from last season, including All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari, and the edge rusher group might be the deepest it’s been in the Matt LaFleur era, especially with Rashan Gary set to play his first game since last season’s ACL tear. On the other side, the Bears added right guard Nate Davis and selected Darnell Wright in the first round to play right tackle, while the pass-rushing group added Yannick Ngakoue and DeMarcus Walker to what was one of the league’s worst pass-rushing groups from a season ago. Even though the Bears might be improved along the line of scrimmage, it’s hard to imagine the Packers not being big favorites in terms of which team will protect and pressure better on Sunday, especially when considering which quarterback is better at getting rid of the football on time.
Specialist spotlight
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The Packers special teams are interesting from top to bottom entering Week 1. How will rookie kicker Anders Carlson and first-year punter Daniel Whelan handle the unpredictable winds in Chicago? Can new long snapper Matt Orzech produce a flawless snapping performance? Will All-Pro Keisean Nixon change the game with a return or drastically alter field position with his presence? Does rookie Jayden Reed get a chance to field punts? Who replaces Tyler Davis as Rich Bisaccia’s do-it-all special teamer? Will the Packers elevate any players from the practice squad to fortify the gameday roster on special teams? That’s a lot of questions for special teams, but the Packers are going to be a team dependent on quality play from the third phase in 2023, and Bisaccia’s group has unknowns to start the season. Time to get some answers. Maybe the special teams can help Jordan Love score his first win in Chicago.
Prediction: Packers 23, Bears 20
I will admit being deeply split on this prediction. On one hand, the Packers — who have struggled mightily in season openers recently — are going back on the road in Week 1 with a first-year starting quarterback and an extremely young group of pass-catchers, and not having dynamic weapon Christian Watson (hamstring) available will only complicate the task ahead for Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love. The defense’s question marks up front (two new starters) and against the run in general will be put to the test, and three new specialists could create some nervous moments. But even though the Bears have clear paths to winning the game, I can’t get over what should be a huge advantage for the Packers along the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and how important this advantage should be to determining the winner. Love will be effective if he’s consistently protected, and Justin Fields will take sacks and make mistakes if he’s consistently pressured. While the quarterback change in Green Bay gets all the headlines, the Packers will beat the Bears on Sunday if they dominate in the trenches like this matchup suggests they should.
