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The Packers' 2024 schedule will be the toughest (in theory) in the NFC

JR Radcliffe, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
·4 min read

If we're using 2023 records as a guide, then the Green Bay Packers are tied for the fourth-toughest schedule in the NFL next year, and the toughest in the NFC.

Even casual football fans can tell you that it's unsafe to declare any schedule "easy" or "hard" at this stage ... or even midway through the season. But take it for what it's worth.

Packers opponents went 152-137 in 2023, matched with the Houston Texans for the fourth-toughest schedule in the league with a winning percentage of .526. Only the Cleveland Browns (.547), Baltimore Ravens (.536) and Pittsburgh Steelers (.533) have it tougher.

The Detroit Lions would rank No. 11 (.509), the Minnesota Vikings are tied for 16th (.502) and the Chicago Bears are tied for 29th (.467).

How do opponents get selected for each NFL team's 2024 schedule?

The Packers don't know when they're playing which team, but they do know the teams they'll be playing in 2024.

  • Each NFL team naturally has two games against each divisional opponent, so that takes care of six games on the 17-game schedule.

  • Four games come against a division within the conference (two at home, two on the road), and each team within the NFC North plays all four teams in that division. This year, it's the NFC West, so the Packers will face the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams, and so will everyone else in the North.

  • Four games come against a division within the other conference (two at home, two on the road), and each team within the NFC North plays those four teams, as well. This year, it's the AFC South (Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans).

  • Two games come from the other two like-placed teams in the other two NFC divisions. Since the Packers took second in the North last year, they draw the second-place finishers in the NFC East (Philadelphia) and NFC South (New Orleans). The first-place finishers get other first-place finishers and so on.

  • The final game comes against a nonconference foe from a division that the team isn't already scheduled to play, also based on division ranking. In this case, it's the AFC East, giving the Packers the second-place finisher Dolphins. There was some possibility it would be the Jets (and Aaron Rodgers), but that fell by the wayside when the Packers pushed past Minnesota for second place in the North. It's third-place Minnesota that gets the third-place Jets instead.

If the Lions finished with a better record than the Packers, shouldn't they have the tougher schedule in 2024?

Detroit's opponents have lost five more games than the Packers. If so much of the schedule relies on meeting teams in the same divisional placement, how can the Lions wind up with the easier schedule than the Packers?

This comes down to the NFC North part of the schedule; the Lions can't play themselves. So the 12-win Lions team gets two games against the nine-win Packers while the Packers are facing a 12-win Lions team; that's a difference of six opponent victories between the two games.

Though the Lions will face the fellow first-place Dallas Cowboys from the NFC East next year, which is one game better than Philadelphia (the team from the East on Green Bay's schedule), the top-two finishers in the NFC South and AFC East both had the same records. With the rest of the schedule for the Packers and Lions identical, that still leaves a five-game difference in "toughness of schedule."

Outside of the divisional foes, who are the six teams coming to Lambeau Field this year?

The NFC gets the "17th game" at home this year, so that means a total of nine home games. Aside from the Bears, Lions and Vikings, Green Bay will have:

  • San Francisco 49ers (12-5 last year, a Super Bowl qualifier and the team that eliminated the Packers from the playoffs. National TV, perhaps?)

  • Miami Dolphins (11-6 last year and a playoff qualifier led by embattled quarterback Tua Tagovailoa)

  • Houston Texans (10-7 last year and a playoff qualifier led by offensive rookie of the year C.J. Stroud)

  • New Orleans Saints (9-8 last year and a team the Packers beat in Week 3)

  • Indianapolis Colts (9-8 last year and led by former University of Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor)

  • Arizona Cardinals (4-13 last year and led by quarterback Kyler Murray)

Road foes are Tennessee, Seattle, Jacksonville, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia and the three divisional foes.

When will the Packers 2024 schedule be announced?

We know the teams and the locations, but not the dates and times. That gets announced in May.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Packers' 2024 schedule will be NFC's toughest, based on 2023 records