Pac-12 Midseason Check-In: Which team should be favored to win the conference?
We’re officially halfway through the 2022 college football season, and it felt like a perfect time to join up with our good friend from USA TODAY’s Trojans Wire, Matt Zemek.
Zemek’s USC Trojans are rolling down in Los Angeles, and have gotten out to a perfect 6-0 start on the season, subsequently being ranked No. 6 in the nation. The Lincoln Riley experiment didn’t take long to get off and running, and it seems like QB Caleb Williams and RB Travis Dye can do anything they want on offense and find success.
We want to talk about more than just USC, though. To take the temperature of the conference as a whole at the midway point in the season, both Zemek and I answered some questions about who we think have surprised us the most, and where we think the balance of power currently stands out west.
Here is our midseason check-in:
Pac-12 Power Rankings
Question: To lay some groundwork, what are your current Pac-12 Power Rankings?
Matt Zemek (@MattZemek)
UCLA
USC
Oregon
Washington State
Utah
Washington
Oregon State
Arizona
Arizona State
California
Stanford
Colorado
In terms of the eye test, Oregon looks better than USC, as does UCLA, but that is partly a product of offensive line health. USC’s offensive line has not been healthy the past three weeks. USC gets a week off on Oct. 22. The Trojans really need to get their big guns back (Courtland Ford in particular) for UCLA and Notre Dame. They’re not in a great spot in terms of health heading into Salt Lake City for the Utah showdown.
Zachary Neel (@ZacharyCNeel)
USC
Oregon
UCLA
Utah
Washington State
Washington
Oregon State
Arizona
California
Arizona State
Stanford
Colorado
I would agree that I think Oregon looks like the best team in the conference right now, but that may simply be due to the fact that they haven’t played the best of competition since the Georiga game, or the win over BYU. I respect their win over Washington State a lot, but it was a little too close of a call to give me the ultimate confidence that it should on paper. While UCLA has the momentum, I’m still in the camp of wanting to see them win a true road game against a really good opponent before crowning them king. October 22 is going to tell a lot.
Biggest Surprise
Question: So far through six weeks, what do you think has been your biggest surprise in the conference?
Matt Zemek (@MattZemek)
There are lots of big surprises in the conference. I didn’t think Utah would lose twice in the first six weeks. I didn’t expect Arizona to win at San Diego State, but the Aztecs’ offense is as bad as Iowa’s offense, which is really saying something. Bo Nix, I have to admit, has greatly exceeded my expectations. I was not high on him and was not shy about saying so. USC’s defense not allowing 30 points in any of its first six games is incredible. I didn’t see that one coming. Washington looking great and then collapsing on defense is a real mind-bender. Yet, more than anything else, it has to be Chip Kelly suddenly looking like he did at Oregon a decade ago. I’m sure, Zac, that you’re looking at UCLA and seeing the similarities to Chip’s Oregon teams. Who thought Chip would suddenly figure it out at UCLA after completely failing to achieve anything significant during the Clay Helton years and wasting a huge opportunity? UCLA looked bad against South Alabama, too. It’s not as though UCLA was playing great football in September. This all happened very quickly. It sure sets up an amazing scene in Autzen on Oct. 22.
Zachary Neel (@ZacharyCNeel)
I think my biggest surprise this year has to be that the Trojans are getting the job done not only on offense but on defense as well. We all knew coming into the season that Caleb Williams and Travis Dye and Lincoln Riley were going to put up points, but USC is among the most capitalistic teams in the nation, averaging 2.7 turnovers per game with 16 total in the season. I was maybe wrongfully under the impression before the season that the Trojans would have to win all of their games in shootout fashion, but so far I’ve been proven wrong on that front.
Biggest Disappointment
Question: What about your biggest disappointment through the midway point in the season?
Matt Zemek (@MattZemek)
The biggest disappointment has to be Utah. Defending Pac-12 champions. Returning starting quarterback. Lots of pieces coming back. A veteran, established coaching staff that knows exactly what it wants from its players. This was all supposed to come together, and it hasn’t. I think the specific disappointment on the Utah roster has to be quarterback Cam Rising. He threw a game-deciding interception at Florida. He threw a crucial early interception against UCLA. He isn’t finishing drives. He isn’t making huge plays in key situations. He has regressed.
Recall Sam Darnold at USC, who — like Rising — came into his first season in late September after not being chosen as the Week 1 starter. Darnold was great in his first full (12-game) season at USC, the one year in which he was the Week 1 starting quarterback. That was in 2017. He won USC’s most recent Pac-12 title, the Trojans’ only Pac-12 title to date and their only Pac-12 title since 2008. Rising in 2022 has fallen well short of the 2017 Sam Darnold standard.
Zachary Neel (@ZacharyCNeel)
If I were to answer this question a couple of weeks ago, I would have said agreed that Utah seemingly not being the power out west that we all expected was a bit disappointing. However, I’m going to go another way.
I’m shockingly bummed that the Washington Huskies don’t seem to be as good as they looked early on in the season and have since fallen off a little bit. They were so hot early on, starting 4-0 with an impressive win over the then-No. 11 Michigan State Spartans. They were ranked inside the top 25 and looked like a team that could become a serious contender in the conference with Michael Pennix Jr. and Kalen DeBoer leading the way. However, they have dropped two-straight games since then, losing to UCLA and Arizona State. The Huskies still may be a good team and can absolutely still give a big test to the Ducks later this year, but I don’t see them competing for a New Years’ Six Bowl as I did a few weeks ago.
Pac-12 Offensive MVP
Question: If you had to choose an offensive MVP through 6 weeks, who is it? If you were to predict who the end-of-year MVP will be, does that answer change?
Matt Zemek (@MattZemek)
Right now it’s either Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Zach Charbonnet. The answer will depend on — most likely — the USC-UCLA game on Nov. 19. Oregon’s offense is putting up huge numbers. Emphatic victories over UCLA and Utah could elevate Bo Nix in this conversation. USC obviously has Caleb Williams and Travis Dye in the discussion. Troy Franklin of Oregon also has to be considered. Those six players are all in the hunt, and they will all have the big showcase games needed to catapult them up the board. I don’t think anyone outside these six players has a chance, but I also don’t think any of these six players should be written off. If Franklin, for instance, has a 200-yard receiving game against a suspect UCLA secondary, he could supplant DTR as the Pac-12 Offensive MVP. It’s a fluid race. Right now, the two best UCLA skill players lead the chase, but Caleb Williams will get a say in the argument one month from now.
Zachary Neel (@ZacharyCNeel)
I think USC’s Caleb Williams has a lead in the MVP race at the moment, but it’s very much still up in the air. Between Williams, UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Oregon’s Bo Nix, the stats are pretty comparable. All have around 1,500 yards passing, while Williams (14:1) has a greater TD:INT ratio than DTR (15:2) and Nix (12:3). Nix does get a boost in my mind for his rushing ability (331 yards, 8 TD) but it’s not enough for me to give him my vote yet. Quite simply, Williams is the best player on the best team in the conference, so I will begrudgingly choose him for the time being.
Pac-12 Defensive MVP
Question: Same question, but for defensive MVP. Who is it right now, and who will it be at the end of the year?
Matt Zemek (@MattZemek)
Defensive MVP is a tie between two USC Trojans: Eric Gentry and Tuli Tuipulotu. Gentry was better through the first four weeks, but Tuipulotu has been consistent throughout the season and then got three sacks against Washington State. USC finally won a game in which its opponent did not commit a turnover. That was against Wazzu. Tuipulotu recording three sacks and creating all those negative plays enabled USC to win without forcing a turnover. Gentry was the guy who was causing those turnovers earlier in the season. Multiple deflections turned into picks. He has been very disruptive. The second half of the season will tell us a lot about the comparison between the two.
The surprisingly good play of USC’s defense has to put the Trojans in front at the midway point, but if USC falters and the defense finally starts getting shredded — which is certainly possible — the DPOY race will take on entirely new dimensions. It’s a fluid situation.
Zachary Neel (@ZacharyCNeel)
I think I have to agree, Tuli Tuipulotu is the defensive MVP at the moment. With 7 sacks already through six games, Tuipulotu leads the conference and has an impressive 12.5 tackles for loss at this point as well. I would like to give a nod to Washington State’s Daiyan Henley (55 tackles, 10 TFL, 4 sacks) and UCLA’s Laiatu Latu (6.5 sacks, 7 TFL).
College Football Playoff
Question: Do you think that any Pac-12 team will make it to the College Football Playoff this year?
Matt Zemek (@MattZemek)
In my unbiased opinion, no, a Pac-12 team won’t make the playoff. Every Pac-12 team will lose at least once, so if we have a 2021-style situation with Georgia and Alabama having only one loss, those two teams are getting in over a 12-1 Pac-12 champion. Alabama easily could have lost a game by now, but it didn’t. Alabama could still lose to Tennessee this week, but as long as the Tide lose only once in the second half of the season, they should still be fine. Same with Georgia. UGA didn’t get in in 2018 because it lost twice. A one-loss SEC runner-up almost certainly gets in. Clemson was a team we didn’t know about heading into the season. The Tigers have passed their big tests and look set to make the playoff again. That’s a killer for the Pac-12, which was hoping Clemson would lose. The Tigers were taken to overtime by Wake Forest, but the Demon Deacons couldn’t close the sale. It’s very unfortunate.
Zachary Neel (@ZacharyCNeel)
I’m not ready to say that a Pac-12 team won’t make the CFP yet, but I do understand how unlikely it’s starting to feel. At this point, I think USC, UCLA, and Oregon are the only three teams in contention, and they’re going to need some help to get there. Whoever wins the Pac-12 Championship must do so with only 1 loss on the record, and they need one of the top teams to falter (my guess is Alabama because I’m not sure how injured Bryce Young’s shoulder really is.) If I were to put money on it, the Pac-12 is on the outside looking in once again. I’m not ready to write the death warrant just yet though.
Pac-12 Championship Game Matchup
Question: Which two teams do you think right now will make it to the Pac-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas?
Matt Zemek (@MattZemek)
I think USC loses to Utah and beats UCLA. Oregon will split the UCLA-Utah home games. It might come down to Utah at Washington State. If the Utes beat USC, a win at Wazzu enables them to sneak back into the conference title chase and play Oregon for a spot in Las Vegas. If Wazzu wins, USC won’t have to worry about the head-to-head tiebreaker as long as it can beat UCLA. IF you asked me today — and that’s exactly what you are in fact doing Zac — I’d say USC-Oregon is the matchup.
Zachary Neel (@ZacharyCNeel)
How different this now looks with no divisions gate-keeping the championship game, huh? I think that the same three teams in line for a potential CFP berth — USC, UCLA, Oregon — are the front-runners to get to Vegas, and they all still have to play each other, save USC and Oregon. My belief is that Oregon will beat UCLA in two weeks, and though they might struggle with the Utes later in the year, I still think they win that game at home. At this point, my guess for a Pac-12 title game is the matchup that we all were dying for going into the season: Oregon vs USC.
Oregon vs. USC
Question: Let’s say that Oregon and USC end up meeting in that conference championship… Who do you have winning that game?
Matt Zemek (@MattZemek)
If USC’s offensive line is healthy, USC is the best team in the Pac-12. I did pick USC to win the conference before the season, going 10-2 overall with one of the losses being to Notre Dame. Utah was the one conference loss on the schedule. As long as the O-line gives him enough time, Caleb Williams will shine on the big stage. I won’t back away from a USC pick — after all, things are certainly going even better than I initially expected for the Trojans — but O-line health is the thing we all need to watch. UCLA’s skill players have had better seasons than USC’s skill players because the Bruins haven’t run into a problematic injury up front. That matters.
Zachary Neel (@ZacharyCNeel)
If you play this game right now, I’m taking Oregon. I think the Ducks are as hot as any team in the conference and have things clicking under the coaching staff. On top of that, I haven’t been completely blown away by USC as of late. They’ve been tested a bit by Washington State and Oregon State, and as Zemek mentioned, are not completely healthy upfront. A lot can change between now and December. Should the Ducks manage to stay healthy — which they’ve done well so far — I truly believe they can beat USC, and I promise you that’s not just me saying that as an Oregon alum. I thought it would take a season for Dan Lanning’s message to click in Eugene, but the team is playing with a passion and attention to detail that we haven’t seen at Oregon since the Marcus Mariota years. Give me the Ducks to take down the Trojans.
