Pac-12 men’s basketball could get only two NCAA Tournament bids
The last Pac-12 football season was spectacular. Washington made the College Football Playoff National Championship Game after beating Texas in a playoff semifinal. Oregon made a New Year’s Six bowl and had a strong season, basically the same season USC football had in 2022 (11 regular-season wins and two losses to one team). Michael Penix and Bo Nix were both Heisman Trophy finalists. Yet, as great as Pac-12 football was, Pac-12 men’s basketball has been awful in its final season.
You know that USC and UCLA have had disastrous seasons and can only make the NCAA Tournament by winning the Pac-12 Tournament. Beyond the Los Angeles schools and their own woes, however, the problems run a lot deeper for the conference which is about to die.
Believe it or not, the Pac-12 could very realistically have only two NCAA Tournament teams. We say that because of what happened on the weekend relative to the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Let’s dive into the details:
UTAH GETS SWEPT AT HOME BY THE ARIZONA SCHOOLS
Utah lost at home to Arizona on Thursday. That loss denied the Utes a chance to solidify an NCAA Tournament bid with a high-quality result. Then Utah lost at home to Arizona State on Saturday, a horrific loss which will send the Utes several spots downward on the seed list. Utah, once felt to be safe for March Madness, is now right on the middle of the bubble and in real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament.
COLORADO GETS BLOWN OUT
Colorado hosted Arizona on Saturday, gaining a chance to make huge gains relative to every other bubble team. Instead, Colorado lost by 20 points to the Wildcats. This game after Arizona played a triple-overtime game on Thursday in Utah. Arizona was supposed to be tired, but Colorado looked like the team with no juice. The Buffaloes are in real bubble trouble. Their nonconference win over the Miami Hurricanes has not become valuable with Miami unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament. Colorado doesn’t have much meat on the bone.
OREGON LOSES AT HOME
Oregon lost at home to Washington State, dealing a severe blow to the Ducks’ NCAA Tournament chances. Oregon coach Dana Altman, who earned a No. 1 seed at Oregon in 2016 and made the Final Four in 2017, is about to miss the NCAAs for a third straight year unless Oregon can get hot at the Pac-12 Tournament. It’s a shocking turn of events in Eugene.
WASHINGTON STATE: THE ONE EXCEPTION
The Washington State Cougars are the one Pac-12 bubble team getting the job done. Wazzu keeps stacking wins, including on the road. Washington State’s last three games, all wins, have come away from Pullman. WSU has beaten Arizona, unlike Utah, Colorado, and Oregon. The Cougars’ NCAA prospects are rapidly improving.
PAC-12 BUBBLE RIGHT NOW
The Pac-12 bubble, right now, probably has Washington State first, Utah second, Colorado third, and Oregon fourth. Washington State and Utah should both be in the NCAA Tournament, with Colorado and Oregon out.
Here’s the problem for Utah, though: The Utes don’t have a win over Arizona and won’t play Arizona again unless they meet the U of A at the Pac-12 Tournament. Utah will play lower-tier Pac-12 teams in the coming weeks. Any loss to any of those teams will hurt the Utes’ resume. Utah has to win nearly all of its remaining games because any loss will pull the Utes’ numbers downward. Washington State doesn’t have that same problem. Colorado and Oregon do have situations similar to Utah, and they are lower than the Utes on the big board.
ARIZONA HELPING NON-PAC-12 BUBBLE TEAMS
Arizona is hurting the Pac-12 but helping national bubble teams. The U of A has denied Oregon, Utah, and Colorado huge victories in the past few weeks. All three teams would likely be in the NCAA Tournament if they had beaten Arizona, but the Cats denied them that huge poker chip before Selection Sunday. If the Pac-12 does get only two or three NCAA bids, Arizona’s ability to beat most Pac-12 bubble teams will be a central reason for the conference’s low bid count.
