Pac-12 media rights deal takes center stage after San Diego State movement
San Diego State hasn’t officially left the Mountain West, but it has declared its intent to do so.
Why haven’t we heard about the Pac-12 inviting San Diego State or extending a formal offer to the Aztecs as of early Saturday morning? The answer is complicated in terms of George Kliavkoff’s negotiations, but it’s not complicated in terms of understanding what’s going on here.
“While the Pac-12 — as of Friday at noon — had not yet extended an offer to the Aztecs to join the conference, everyone in the college sports industry is waiting for that to happen. One very obvious point raised by the San Diego State story is that it puts the spotlight on the Pac-12’s pursuit of a new media rights deal. Have media rights conversations been conducted behind closed doors with the expectation that San Diego State would be part of the conference? Was that the holdup here? Is that why no media rights package has been finalized? Everyone will speculate, but now we wait to see what domino will fall next.”
There are a few specific points to make about the Pac-12 media rights deal. Let’s explore them below in the form of tweets from other observers and some written commentary of our own:
IT'S MORE ABOUT ESCAPING THE MOUNTAIN WEST FIRST
SDSU looking at the current pac12 media negotiations and going "yes, gimme some of that" https://t.co/6Y3WePulHv
— An Unserious Person (@Chocotacolate) June 16, 2023
SMU IS DEFINITELY WATCHING ALL OF THIS PLAY OUT
SDSU headed to the Pac 12? Does this mean a Pac 12 team is moving? Pac 12 moving to 11 teams? Will they add a 12th? https://t.co/i2TJC3iRRS
— Jake Lebahn (@JakeLebahn) June 16, 2023
PAC-12 SURVIVAL QUESTIONS
Imo the only schools to really follow for Arizona are Colorado, Washington and Oregon.
ASU has a president who doesn’t care about sports so I could see them staying no matter what— Michael Luke (@ironmikeluke) June 16, 2023
PROBABLY THE CORRECT ANALYSIS
This would indicate the media rights talks are not close to ending for the #Pac12 https://t.co/BcR3qzWYHF
— Locked On Pac-12 (@LO_Pac12) June 16, 2023
THIS IS THE PAC-12, THOUGH
Truly unforeseeable that the Pac-12 might not have a media rights deal done by end of June… https://t.co/20kBDyxfpp
— Max Olson (@max_olson) June 16, 2023
OUR VIEW
Whether the Pac-12 media rights deal is or isn’t close to being finished, what matters is that it isn’t finished. If it’s close, Kliavkoff might be able to use San Diego State’s move to not necessarily leverage his position, but at least speak with more clarity and confidence in negotiations. This could accelerate the process by which media partners agree to a final figure.
It might not be what Kliavkoff and the Pac-12 want, but it could be the best deal they might hope to get.
VALUATIONS
One would reasonably assume that Kliavkoff, in media rights negotiations, has discussed the value of a media rights deal in various scenarios, one of them being a scenario with San Diego State and SMU in the conference. Now that such a scenario seems more realistic, we could see the conference and ESPN (and other media partners such as Amazon or Apple) get off their dime and move toward an end game, understanding where the likely price point was going to be in the event that the Aztecs and Mustangs join the Pac-12.
ALL EYES ON SMU
San Diego State wants out of the Mountain West. Now let’s see if SMU does anything. Industry insiders believe SMU is the next most logical Pac-12 expansion candidate after San Diego State. Keep your eyes on suburban Dallas.
SMU TIMELINE
While we should definitely pay attention to SMU, we shouldn’t expect any immediate action from the Mustangs. They know a media rights deal isn’t finalized, and they also know the Pac-12 hasn’t extended a formal invitation to San Diego State. There’s no real reason for SMU to jump the gun and make any public statement — not until the Pac-12 invites San Diego State and creates a situation in which SMU would be a 12th Pac-12 member. SMU can’t get caught in an in-between position in which it wants to go to the Pac-12 but then doesn’t gain the TV revenue it expects. It has to know the price point of a media rights deal is at an acceptable level. This San Diego State situation has too many unknowns for SMU to rush a commitment to the Pac-12. It can sit back and wait for the Aztecs and George Kliavkoff to take the necessary next steps.
MOUNTAIN WEST MOMENT
We have to wait and see how the Mountain West is going to handle all of this, too. Will it play hardball with San Diego State or allow the Aztecs to leave without paying additional exit fees? That could complicate the math and the timing for a lot of different parties.
THE BIG 12
Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark is aggressive and proactive. San Diego State just wants to find the exit door for the Mountain West right now and avoid paying more departure fees. The likelihood is SDSU is heading for the Pac-12, but that’s not guaranteed.
Yormark could step in and give the Aztecs a very attractive offer. As long as the Pac-12 media rights situation remains unresolved, Yormark has a window in which he can spring into action and pull an upset that would damage the Pac-12.
This is why George Kliavkoff needs to land the plane and get this media rights deal done sooner rather than later.
