On Target 🎯 with the TEs: Do we have a Travis Kelce decision to make?
Travis Kelce has dominated the tight end position for almost a decade now. He has finished as the overall TE1 in five of the past seven seasons; the only players who nudged past him were Rob Gronkowski in 2017 and Mark Andrews in 2021. Kelce can start working on his Hall of Fame speech whenever he feels like it; he's obviously overqualified.
As such, it's surprising to see anyone but Kelce at the top of 2023's tight end production board. And it's especially shocking to see a rookie at the TE1 spot, but that's where Sam LaPorta currently sits.
Of course, your mileage will vary, depending on how your league scores things. In half-point PPR, the default scoring for Yahoo, LaPorta sits first, the now-injured T.J. Hockenson is second, and Kelce is third. If your league ignores PPR, the top three are LaPorta, George Kittle and Kelce. In a full-PPR format, Hockenson ranks first (but will fall out this week), Kelce second and LaPorta third.
LaPorta's season becomes more impressive when you consider that he's tied to a good-not-elite quarterback in Jared Goff and the Lions' passing offense primarily revolves around receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. The LaPorta breakout has been all about efficiency, with a splash of touchdown nectar.
That efficiency really sings in the red zone. Although LaPorta's 13 red-zone targets are merely seventh at the position, he has caught 10 of them and scored seven times from inside the 20. Meanwhile, no other tight end has more than six overall touchdowns (LaPorta has nine).
This scoring pace makes LaPorta a tricky call next year, as we wonder about possible touchdown regression and potentially deal with the Lions losing OC Ben Johnson, sure to be a hot head-coaching candidate. But I suppose those are 2024 problems. On the list of 2023 Yahoo MVPs, the players who show up most on the top 500 Yahoo public teams, LaPorta currently slots eighth.
Kelce will be an easy fade for me next year, as he slides into his age-35 season. Not that he has been bad this season; I'm not going to slam anyone who ranks third overall at his position, especially given that he has been banged up from the jump (remember, Kelce missed Week 1 due to a knee injury). Here's the key point: player improvement and development aren't always linear, but player decline almost always is. When the arrow goes in the wrong direction, when the cheese goes bad (a tag that doesn't fairly apply to Kelce yet), you'd better be careful.
I suppose all surviving fantasy managers who roster Kelce are going to use him in their championship week. When you draft Kelce, you probably never think much about a Plan B. But Kelce has just one touchdown in his past seven games, and over the past eight weeks, Patrick Mahomes has just one top-10 quarterback performance. If the Chiefs had a way to fix the problems of 2023, they'd be fixing them. Rashee Rice's emergence has helped the wide receiver room, but he's merely a solid player, not a savior.
I ran the numbers on tight-end scoring for the past four weeks — the money weeks — and the names in the top 12 are delightfully different. See what you make of the list:
Evan Engram, 63 points
David Njoku, 61.6
LaPorta, 57.6
George Kittle, 46.4
Jake Ferguson, 40.3
Trey McBride, 40.2
Isaiah Likely, 39.4
Kyle Pitts, 37.9
Hunter Henry, 36.1
Chigoziem Okonkwo, 35.4
Tucker Kraft, 35.3
Kelce, 33.6
Taking a look at TEs throughout the fantasy season 😳 pic.twitter.com/u67Z8USobY
— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) December 27, 2023
Engram leads the position in catches and targets over this period. He has also scored three times.
Kittle has an absurd 14 catches of 20 or more yards in the past month. The surging Njoku (nine) and Cole Kmet (nine) are next. It's a shame Kmet got hurt last week; he was going off against Arizona.
Taysom Hill hasn't been a thing since his injury. He didn't play in Week 14 and has just four touches in two games since. Meanwhile, conventional tight end Juwan Johnson has stepped up — more on him in a second.
With Hockenson out for the year and Kmet banged up, you might need a plug-and-play tight end for Week 17. Here are some guys to consider:
Gerald Everett at Denver Broncos (44% rostered)
I was surprised that Everett's tag has moved just 2% over the past day, but maybe that speaks to how most fantasy managers have already been eliminated. Everett has 24 targets and 17 catches the past three weeks, and now he takes aim at a Broncos defense that has been horrendous in seam coverage, no matter if you prefer old-school (accumulated points) or new-school (DVOA) math. Hunter Henry's sleeper case washed out last week when he was scratched, but his backup wound up scoring — long-forgotten Mike Gesicki. That's how much the Broncos give it away to tight ends. Everett pushes into my top 10 for Week 17.
Chigoziem Okonkwo at Houston Texans (38% rostered)
The Titans are never going to be a pass-heavy team, and Okonkwo has to make do with modest volume — six targets is probably his theoretical max in any week. But he has quietly produced a solid 21-252-1 line the past five weeks, and Houston has allowed the most tight-end catches and the fourth-most points to the position. I like Okonkwo a little more if Ryan Tannehill starts, but he's still a stream-worthy name if Will Levis returns.
Juwan Johnson at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14% rostered)
Generally, I don't trust Derek Carr or the New Orleans passing game, but Johnson has entered the Circle of Trust, scoring in back-to-back games and absorbing seven targets last week (en route to a 4-48-1 line). This week, it's a showdown game at Tampa Bay against a defense that has allowed the sixth-most points to tight ends. You probably need a goal-line flip for Johnson to pay off, but he's seeing those types of opportunities recently.
Logan Thomas vs. San Francisco 49ers (38% rostered)
Thomas caught a touchdown pass from Jacoby Brissett in the high-scoring loss to the Jets, and while everyone figures the Commanders will be steamrollered by the 49ers this week, it should at least push Washington to a pass-heavy game plan. Isaiah Likely made a few plays against the Niners on Christmas night, and it's not like Thomas' role is being marginalized by anyone in the Washington receiver room. He's in play this week.
