What are Oklahoma State football's best- and worst-case scenarios for every game in 2023?
STILLWATER — After ending last season on a sour note with three straight losses and the departure of a plethora of players, the Oklahoma State football team has reset entering the 2023 season that begins in less than a week.
Here’s a best case/worst case scenario breakdown of the Cowboys’ schedule:
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Sept. 2 vs. Central Arkansas (6 p.m., ESPN+)
Best case: Lots of points early, leading to the Cowboys deploying their depth on a hot night while also showing off the strength of the new-look defense. And Mike Gundy’s plan of multiple quarterbacks works to perfection with Alan Bowman, Garret Rangel and Gunnar Gundy all splitting reps in a meaningful way. A bonus would be finding a way to get true freshman Zane Flores a rep or two, even if he only hands off the football.
Worst case: The heat takes over and the Cowboys are sluggish against an overmatched team. Not even extreme heat should cost OSU the game, but sluggishness, cramping or injuries could make things more interesting than need be.
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Sept. 9 at Arizona State (9:30 p.m., FS1)
Best case: The Cowboys’ defense wreaks havoc on true freshman quarterback Jaden Rashada, which takes pressure off the offense in the desert. That also leads to more points on a night the Cowboys need to continue a strong start to the season.
Worst case: Rashada does not play like a true freshman and instead picks apart a defense still looking to settle into the new system. That could make for a long, late night in the desert for the second time in nearly nine months.
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Sept. 16 vs. South Alabama (6 p.m., ESPN+)
Best case: This is far from a cakewalk against a veteran team that received AP poll votes a year ago. The Cowboys need every part of momentum to click on both sides of the football to get a hard-earned win to close out the non-conference schedule.
Worst case: The Cowboys don’t quite click in key areas and South Alabama — which has nine players returning on each side of the ball — takes advantage to steal a victory and continue its rise.
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Sept. 23 at Iowa State
Best case: The Cowboys settle on a quarterback and that guy shines in a feature role. The Cyclones could still be a mess, the result of the gambling scheme, which would be a good time to give a quarterback full control of the game while the defense gives true freshman quarterback J.J. Kohl fits.
Worst case: The angry Cyclones put behind the gambling scheme that is in danger of wrecking the team and rely on their defense to keep things close, making things a little too uncomfortable again for a Cowboys team that watched Iowa State fans storm the field two years ago after an upset.
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Oct. 6 vs. Kansas State (6:30 p.m., ESPN)
Best case: Coming off the bye week with the annual Blackout game, the refreshed Cowboys have a chance to get some sweet payback for an embarrassing 48-0 loss a year ago to the eventual Big 12 champions. OSU has not lost to Kansas State in Stillwater since 2017 and should be in much better shape health wise to make this game competitive.
Worst case: Quarterback Will Howard continues to torch the Cowboys’ secondary a year after throwing four touchdown passes while Florida State transfer Treshaun Ward looks like Deuce Vaughn 2.0. And OSU’s offense still has no answers for a talented Wildcats defense, leading to another long day.
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Oct. 14 vs. Kansas
Best case: A year ago, the Cowboys suffered blow-out losses in back-to-back weeks against the Kansas teams. This time, the Cowboys have an answer defensively and do not allow the Jayhawks to rush for nearly 8 yards per carry while also containing star quarterback Jalon Daniels, who missed last season’s matchup. OSU also avoids four turnovers and overpowers Kansas offensively.
Worst case: Daniels is too much, shining as a dual-threat quarterback while leading Kansas to its first win in Stillwater since 2007. It would also be Kansas’ first back-to-back wins over the Cowboys since 1994-95.
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Oct. 21 at West Virginia
Best case: After two straight home games, the Cowboys hit the road for a long road trip to the land of John Denver with better health and determination to make up for last season’s regular season finale loss. On paper, the Cowboys are more talented and deeper, and they’ve won four straight games in Morgantown.
Worst case: The Cowboys fall flat against a West Virginia team that is coming off a tough stretch to begin conference play with games against Texas Tech, TCU and Houston. If the Mountaineers are successful in that stretch, confidence will build behind coach Neal Brown — who remains on the hot seat — and lead to problems.
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Oct. 28 vs. Cincinnati
Best case: It’s homecoming, a grand celebration around Stillwater, which means high energy by the Cowboys and their fans. That leads to OSU overwhelming its new conference foe, which is still trying to gain ground.
Worst case: The Bearcats are a bit of an unknown for the Big 12 and expectations are low outside of the program. But sleep on them at your own risk. And this could be a pure trap game with Bedlam looming, putting the Cowboys in a position to look ahead and slip up.
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Nov. 4 vs. OU
Best case: Let’s state the obvious: A win here to end the Bedlam series is the dream scenario. Fans will rush the field. The goalposts will no longer stand. Grown men will cry. Babies will be lifted into the air. The party might never stop and Stillwater could burn down. Get it? A win here is a huge deal.
Worst case: The Bedlam series ends with a defeat for the 83rd time in 103 meetings, crushing the Cowboys’ faithful in the process. With the Sooners heading to the SEC without their in-state rival, there would be nothing more bitter than a loss for OSU to sit there for who knows how long.
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Nov. 11 at UCF
Best case: The Cowboys enjoy sunny Florida in November with a defensive performance against high-flying UCF, shaking off the emotions of Bedlam (no matter the result) to find a way to get a big win.
Worst case: It’s the typical game after an emotional week. Gus Malzahn’s high-octane offense overpowers the Cowboys’ talented secondary while taking advantage of a mental letdown from OSU coming off Bedlam.
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Nov. 18 at Houston
Best case: Former Cowboys offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen is certainly on the hot seat in the Cougars’ first year in the Big 12. And if things are going poorly, Houston could be starting to look to the future, which would allow the Cowboys to have a chance to roll.
Worst case: Playing a third long-distance road game in a month catches up with the Cowboys, who run out of gas. That opens the door for an upset, even if the Cougars are struggling themselves.
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Nov. 25 vs. BYU
Best case: Fresh off a feast centered around turkey, the Cowboys close out the regular season with another strong defensive performance against veteran quarterback Kedon Slovis and former Cowboy tackle Caleb Etienne. And any sour feelings remaining from how last season ended are gone.
Worst case: The Cowboys are playing their eighth straight game since a Week 4 bye week. A year ago, a similar stretch wore down OSU and led to huge problems.
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This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Oklahoma State football best- and worst-case scenarios for 2023 season
