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Can Oklahoma State baseball break this recent Big 12 Tournament trend this week?

Depending on how deeply you want to believe in past trends, this might be a year to bet against Oklahoma State baseball reaching the championship game of the Big 12 Tournament.

The event began Tuesday, though the second-seeded Cowboys (36-16) received a first-round bye and will open play at 7:30 p.m. Wednesday at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. They’ll face the lowest-seeded winner of Tuesday’s games that pit third-seeded Texas against 10th-seeded Texas Tech and fifth-seeded Cincinnati against No. 8 Central Florida.

But what about that trend playing against the Pokes this week?

OSU has reached the Big 12 Tournament title game five times since 2015 — every odd-numbered year in that span, with the most recent coming last season.

OSU’s last such appearance in an even-numbered year was a decade ago, in 2014.

Let’s take a look at five things to know about 17th-ranked OSU at the Big 12 Tournament:

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Oklahoma State's Nolan Schubart (10) celebrates a home run with Donovan LaSalle (19) and Zach Ehrhard (4) in the first inning during the college Bedlam baseball game between Oklahoma State University Cowboys and the University of Oklahoma Sooners at O'Brate Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., Friday, April 5, 2024.
Oklahoma State's Nolan Schubart (10) celebrates a home run with Donovan LaSalle (19) and Zach Ehrhard (4) in the first inning during the college Bedlam baseball game between Oklahoma State University Cowboys and the University of Oklahoma Sooners at O'Brate Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., Friday, April 5, 2024.

Maintaining momentum

The Cowboys enter the postseason having won five straight games and 11 of the last 13, so staying hot this week could make things interesting.

OSU went 7-4 in the regular season against the teams in its half of the bracket, with two losses at UCF and two losses at Texas while sweeping Texas Tech and Cincinnati.

The key to OSU’s recent success has been on the mound, where the pitching staff has allowed just 2.6 runs per game during the current win streak.

Keeping the bats alive

The most consistent aspect of this Cowboy squad has been its offense, and that has remained a major key lately. The offense is averaging 11.4 runs per game over the last 13, scoring at least nine runs in nine of those games.

The power the Cowboys have shown throughout the lineup has been impressive. For instance, in a 16-4 win over Texas Tech two weeks ago, seven different players hit a home run. Including that game, OSU has 13 homers in its last four games.

The Cowboys lead the Big 12 in home runs per game. They’ve hit 103 in 52 games, for an average of 1.98 per game.

Nolan Schubart leading the surge

The late-season emergence of Nolan Schubart has been one of the biggest boosts to the OSU lineup.

The sophomore left fielder has 24 hits over the last 12 games. That includes 10 of his 17 home runs on the season, plus four doubles and a triple with 29 RBIs. He has seen his batting average rise from .272 to .355 in that span.

And his run production has been strong because he’s most often hitting third behind Zach Ehrhard and Carson Benge, both of whom are batting above .325 with an on-base percentage of .446 or better.

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Coach Josh Holliday and the Cowboys open play in the Big 12 Tournament at 7:30 p.m. Wednesday at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
Coach Josh Holliday and the Cowboys open play in the Big 12 Tournament at 7:30 p.m. Wednesday at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

Testing pitching depth

Winning the Big 12 Tournament requires at least four wins in four days for the Cowboys, and potentially five, should they drop into the loser’s bracket.

While getting the first-round bye saves them a game, the schedule is still demanding on a pitching staff.

The good news is, thanks to a couple of cancellations the last two weeks, OSU hasn’t needed to go deep into its staff, having played just four games since May 6.

With their top two starters, Sam Garcia and Brian Holiday, pitching deep into games lately, the Cowboys have a well-rested bullpen. But they also haven’t had to use a third starter each of the last two weeks, since Carson Benge’s last appearance at Texas on May 5.

That should give coach Josh Holliday some flexibility in how he uses his rotation if the Cowboys make a deep run this week.

Cowboys on top-16 bubble

The most notable pursuit this week is not necessarily the Big 12 title, though winning it all would virtually guarantee the more significant goal of a top-16 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

That, of course, would keep the Cowboys at O’Brate Stadium for the regional next week.

For now, the Cowboys look to be on the bubble for a host berth, slotting in as the No. 15 or No. 16 seed in most major bracket projections. OSU is currently No. 17 in the RPI, which should benefit it in the seeding process.

The NCAA Tournament selection show is set for 11 a.m. Monday on ESPN2.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Oklahoma State baseball aiming to reach Big 12 title game in even year