Offensive continuity doesn’t always lead to improvement
The Cleveland Browns are excited about having their starters on offense back. For years, the Browns rarely had the same head coach and front office boss (no matter the title) return for a second season together. In 2021, the entire offense and most of their backups return to run Kevin Stefanski’s system along with coordinator Alex Van Pelt.
While this continuity is exciting and provides hope for an uptick. It isn’t guaranteed. Most of the excitement comes after watching Baker Mayfield and company hit their stride as the season went on. If the offense can get that much better in season, especially with COVID-19 limitations, the thought is that a full offseason could do them wonders.
The logic is solid but history may tell us another story:
The 2021 Browns have a chance to become the 35th team since the merger to begin a season with all 11 offensive starters coming off a season with 6 or more starts in the previous season.
I took a quick look at how the other 34 teams fared in the season before and after. pic.twitter.com/Vjr7ceniwF
— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhurdler) July 12, 2021
A recently interesting chart that tells a story, very few teams have been better in their second season together despite the hope of continuity. Reinhard explains this simple phenomenon with a simple idea: Good offenses are likely to stay together but being good makes it hard to be better the following year.
The opposite end of the spectrum would be as simple: Bad offenses tend to have turnover on their roster but being bad makes it easier to be better the following year.
Reinhard continues with the positive side of the coin:
Because of that, there is a decent amount of regression in the return season. But the teams who improved the most (MIN ’98, CHI ’85, SF ’84, PHI ’02) at least made it to the conference championship game.
— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhurdler) July 12, 2021
Browns fans should be excited by this. If history holds true, if the Browns offense is able to improve in 2021 the team should at least make the AFC championship game.
In the end, continuity doesn’t assure anything for any team. When one side of the ball is good, a team tries to keep that side together as much as possible but it is often tough to match the previous year’s success.
For Cleveland, the key is to continue to build off what they have done and not rest on what they did in 2020. With Odell Beckham Jr. returning and the addition of Anthony Schwartz, the offense should easily be more explosive. That alone provides hope that the Browns will continue the historical trend and, at least, make the conference title game… and more.
