Notre Dame's Opponents: Mike Elko and QB Riley Leonard look to recreate last year's surprise success at Duke

Notre Dame’s last three defensive coordinators now lead three of the more prominent academically-minded institutions in FBS football. If nothing else, Brian Kelly had an eye for young defensive coaches in his final five years in South Bend, reversing course after firing Brian VanGorder with three hires of coaches lacking VAnGorder's comprehensive and varied résumé.

Mike Elko now at Duke, Clark Lea now at Vanderbilt and obviously Marcus Freeman at Notre Dame, consider how different they all were than VanGorder when Kelly respectively made them defensive coordinators.

When Kelly hired VanGorder in 2014, the latter was 55 years old and had been a defensive coordinator in the FBS or the NFL for a total of 12 seasons at five different stops, as well as a one-year head coach at Georgia Southern, not to mention the season he was Kelly’s first defensive coordinator at Grand Valley State or the season he spent in the gig at Western Illinois.

Combine all of Elko’s, Lea’s and Freeman’s coordinator experience when they took over the Irish defense and they did not match VanGorder’s history. Hired by Kelly at 40, Elko had been Dave Clawson’s defensive coordinator for a total of seven years at two different stops. Lea, 36 back in 2018, had never been a coordinator before. And Freeman, 35 then and 37 now, had been a coordinator for five years.

Now two of those three have received contract extensions this offseason.

After four years as the defensive coordinator at Texas A&M, Elko’s debut season at Duke could not have gone much better in 2022, finding his way to a 9-4 record. Obviously, there is a difference between going 9-4 in a maiden campaign in Durham and going 9-4 to begin a head coaching career in South Bend. First of all, Elko reached 9-4 with most of a roster that had gone 3-9 the year prior.

All four of the Blue Devils’ losses last season came by a single possession and by a total of 16 points. As much as the nine wins were a shock, more could have been had.

But building on that further is unlikely in 2023.

OFFENSIVE SUMMARY
Even with a likely NFL draft pick at quarterback, an improved 2023 will be unlikely for Duke. Junior Riley Leonard burst onto the scene last year with 20 touchdowns compared to six interceptions, as well as 699 rushing yards and 13 more scores.

Three returning starters along the offensive line should make Leonard’s life easier again, including two fifth-year veterans and senior left tackle Graham Barton, a possible first- or second-round draft pick, as well. Offensive guard Jake Hornibrook, a Stanford transfer, should further burgeon that front line.

Eight returning starters on offense could lead to hefty expectations, but the anecdote you will hear most often around the Blue Devils’ offense will be the text Leonard’s mother sends him before each and every game.

“You suck.”

A harsh way to keep her son grounded, it is rather far from the truth.

Duke lost fifth-year receiver Eli Pancol for the foreseeable future to a lower-body injury this preseason, but that is one position they can likely endure an injury, given every catch from last year’s roster returns in 2023.

If all that bodes so well on offense, why the pessimism about more wins in 2023?

DEFENSIVE SUMMARY
Don’t fault the defense much, either. Eight returning starters and two key cornerback transfers (Myles Jones from Texas A&M and Al Blades Jr. from Miami) should fit well into Elko’s proven scheme.

RELATED READING: Pair of defensive backs are key to Duke’s versatility

But do fault the unlikelihood of luck repeating. Duke recovered 16 of a possible 24 fumbles last season. The oblong ball is not meant to bounce that consistently toward one team. Notching 26 forced turnovers gave the Blue Devils an overall +10 turnover margin. If that begins to ebb, Duke’s narrow edges will begin to dwindle.

And they are narrow edges. As much as the Blue Devils return plenty of contributors, their depth should be doubted. Elko has done well enough recruiting in his time in Durham, but the last years of David Cutcliffe’s regime left too much of a talent deficit on the roster as a whole. Duke is not a school that is going to churn through a third of its roster like Colorado or Arizona state. That talent deficit will be overcome only with time.

2023 OUTLOOK
More than anything, doubt Duke’s 2023 because of the schedule.

Two of the Blue Devils’ 2022 opponents had winning records last year. Eight of the 2023 foes had winning records last year.

Duke faces three teams in the top 13 of the preseason AP top 25, including opening the year with a visit from No. 9 Clemson.

A 3-1 start to the season should be a reality, given the chaos of Northwestern and the even worse overall talent at UConn.

But then, of the seven teams given better chances at winning the ACC by bookmakers than Duke’s odds, the Blue Devils face six of them, dodging only Miami. Add Notre Dame’s visit to Wallace Wade Stadium (Sept. 30) and Duke will need to beat at least three of those teams to crack the Over on its regular season win total of 6.5.

For context, current SP+ rankings suggest the Irish will be favored by about 11.5 points on that visit, though Elko’s acumen and Leonard’s ceiling could make for a stressful afternoon.

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