Notre Dame vs Duke: TV, Time, Preview, Predictions and Odds

If No. 11 Notre Dame (4-1) wants to remember anything good from last week’s 17-14 loss to No. 6 Ohio State, beating the No. 17 Duke Blue Devils (4-0) tonight will be imperative.

The Irish should have beaten the Buckeyes. Notre Dame succeeded on a far greater share of offensive snaps — 50 percent compared to 36 percent. Every post-game win expectancy calculation favored the Irish, some as strongly as to the tune of 96 percent. For 59 minutes and 57 seconds, Notre Dame outplayed Ohio State. And yet, it will be remembered only for the costly 10-man gaffe to end the night.

“The pain of defeat, it’s tough,” Irish head coach Marcus Freeman said Monday. “You’re physically sick when you lose. In the midst of your pain, you have to own it. You have to face it and attack it. You have to go back to work and pick your head up.”

Doing so successfully in what could be a hostile road environment tonight would both wash away some of the taste of that loss to the Buckeyes and reinforce how well Notre Dame played last weekend. The latter may not seem like it matters, a pat on the shoulder following a loss, but it could effectively reestablish the momentum the Irish enjoyed opening the season 4-0.

“There’s a lot of positives that you have to make sure you see them and encourage your staff and the players about how well they did for a great portion of that game,” Freeman said Monday.

In those regards, Notre Dame’s season may be defined tonight, immediately restoring narrative and momentum or allowing Ohio State to cost the Irish twice. And the Blue Devils are not the ideal opponent for such stakes.

"That's the thing we talked about," fifth-year linebacker Jack Kiser said this week. "'Listen guys, Duke's a good football team.' We've got to play to our best potential. We can't be licking our wounds from last week."

Former Notre Dame defensive coordinator Mike Elko has taken Duke to unexpected heights in just 17 games, putting together the second-best Blue Devils stretch in the last 60 years. If the best way to gauge a coach is previous program standards, then Elko has already established himself as one of the country’s quickest rising head coaches.

If the Irish are still set aback from last weekend, Duke will take advantage. In going 13-4 under Elko, the Blue Devils have forced 34 turnovers, losing just 13. Their largest defeat has been by eight points, the other three losses all within a field goal.

This season, Duke has given up only 2.69 points per opposing quality drive, No. 30 in the country, while allowing quality drives on only 29.5 percent of opposing possessions. Unsurprisingly, Elko’s program is defense-driven.

And unsurprisingly with a first-time head coach who was a former defensive coordinator, he enjoys a calm, conservative quarterback. Riley Leonard will stress Notre Dame’s defense, but more importantly to Elko, Leonard will not stress the Blue Devils’ coaching staff.

"He's real athletic, makes really good throws," sixth-year safety DJ Brown said this week. "... It's obviously going to be a challenge."

If the Irish have not rebounded from last week’s devastating loss, Duke is constructed to take advantage of that mental lapse, and that would cost Notre Dame not only a second win but also any possible growth gained from playing back-to-back top-20 opponents.

TV: Rece Davis, Kirk Herbstreit and Holly Rowe (sideline) will handle this ABC broadcast. The Watch ESPN app will be the friend of anyone needing to stream the broadcast.

TIME: Every so often, those who consume too much Notre Dame football-related media will notice beat writers gripe about repeated primetime kickoffs. They are not the only ones who do not relish 7:30 ET kickoff after 7:30 ET kickoff after 7:30 ET kickoff. The Irish will have four in a row, tonight being the second, with the Louisville kickoff on Oct. 7 announced on Monday.

That time was announced just before Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman spoke to the media for the first of his two weekly press conferences. It was announced close enough to that start, he had not been told of it beforehand.

“You’re adding to the travel now,” Freeman said. “We’ll get home from Duke around 3:30 in the morning.

“As I think to the following week for Louisville, we have to take that into consideration. I haven’t put together the itinerary, practice schedule and all those things, but we have to take that into consideration. … That will change a little bit of the practice structure. It shouldn’t be too much.”

More than anything, Freeman will lighten practice slightly to lessen the wear-and-tear of these four straight night games. Players may enjoy them more than day games — that tends to be pretty well split, really — but there is no denying the sleep-schedule impact leads to greater fatigue. That’s the beat writer lament, as well.

Four straight weeks of that added exhaustion tax could catch up to the Irish if not adjusted for during the week.

PREVIEW: Duke’s defense is somewhat vulnerable against the rush, giving up a successful rush on 41.3 percent of attempts, No. 94 in the country. In this definition, success equals gaining at least 50 percent of the yardage needed on first down, at least 70 percent on second down or 100 percent on third down.

But when the Blue Devils’ rush defense stands up, it stands up stoutly. Of 41 combined rush attempts by Northwestern and Connecticut in their respective first three quarters, Duke stopped 18 of them for gains of two yards or fewer. So, 43.9 percent of those opposing rush attempts were outright failures, no advanced stat or nuanced definition needed to define them.

Put those two differing percentages into conversation with each other. When the Blue Devils defended the run well, they did it very well, the 43.9 percent. But when a rush had a bit of an edge against Duke, it would genuinely move the opposition forward compared to the chains, the 41.3 percent on the season. There were hardly any so-so rushes, three-yard gains on 2nd-and-6 type carries.

And then there was Clemson.

On 12 possessions, the Tigers put together five quality drives, including an 18-yard touchdown drive courtesy of a Blue Devils’ muffed punt. That was it for Clemson’s points, two fumbles near the goal line underscoring Dabo Swinney’s continued red-zone troubles. Among those dozen possessions, the Tigers had only one three-and-out.

They were able to move the ball, especially when still within two possessions and thus comfortable running the ball. And on 33 rushes in the first three quarters, Duke stopped Clemson in its tracks just nine times, 27 percent.

Notre Dame’s offensive front is more akin to Clemson’s than it is to Northwestern’s or Connecticut’s. In fact, the Irish offensive front is better than the Tigers’.

The Blue Devils’ defensive strength is shutting down the passing game while halting enough rush attempts. That should be a struggle against the Irish.

PREDICTION: No matter how sluggish Notre Dame may be, its offensive line should get off the ball without hesitation. Some positions defy a letdown.

"No one's talking about [the Ohio State loss] anymore," fifth-year center Zeke Correll said. "Everyone's talking about our opponent. I've spent all my time with the guys on the offense, and they're talking about their matchups, what they can do to help this offense succeed this week, our game plan going into the game."

And that will put the Duke defense on its heels. A year ago, the Blue Devils’ solve would have been simple: Devote a couple safeties to stopping the run and risk Irish quarterback Drew Pyne winning the game through the air.

Duke knows better than to do that against Sam Hartman, who threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns last season in Durham, completing 61.9 percent of his passes at 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Two years ago, in David Cutcliffe’s final season as Duke’s head coach, Hartman threw for 402 yards and three touchdowns at a 64.9 percent completion rate at 10.9 yards per pass attempt.

The Blue Devils have a strong defense, but it may have been overhyped courtesy of facing an FCS-opponent, the No. 110 offense per SP+ ratings in Northwestern and the No. 131 offense in Connecticut. Who is worse than UConn? Kent State and Sam Houston State.

Notre Dame’s rushing attack was not trusted enough to put away Ohio State a week ago. The likes of Audric Estimé and Gi’Bran Payne should be trusted to distance Duke from the outset tonight.

Notre Dame 31, Duke 23.
Predictions record straight-up: 4-1; Against the spread: 3-2; Over/Under: 2-3.
Notre Dame record straight-up: 4-1; Against the spread: 4-1; Over/Under: 4-1.

INSIDE THE IRISH
— Notre Dame’s top priority this week to not let Ohio State beat it twice, as it did in 2022
— The No. 17 Duke Blue Devils, QB Riley Leonard reaching new heights for Notre Dame’s visit
— String of unbeaten opponents await Irish, from Duke to Louisville to USC
— Things To Learn: Notre Dame cannot afford a hangover heading to Duke on Saturday

OUTSIDE READING
— Duke’s prior experience against Sam Hartman means little
— How Duke football embraces the doubters with unlikely mantra
— Notre Dame vs Duke odds, picks and predictions: Defenses dominate early in Durham
— College football Week 5 odds, picks and predictions
— Notre Dame’s blunder vs. Ohio State proves counting to 11 isn’t as easy as it looks
— Duke Football’s revival is led by the shared mindset of coach Mike Elko, strength coach David Feeley
— College football Week 5 preview: Georgia and Michigan hit the road, ACC upstarts get their chance, more
— Notre Dame’s season isn’t over yet. But Saturday’s game should tell us where it stands.
— How the ‘Coach Prime’ effect is radically changing life in Boulder, Colorado

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