No. 23 Florida football vs. Kentucky: Scouting report, prediction.

Florida football can excise some demons in the Bluegrass State with a win Saturday at Kentucky (noon, ESPN).

The No, 23 Florida Gators (3-1, 1-0 SEC) made a statement with an upset win over Tennessee at The Swamp earlier this month. But Florida has dropped two straight and three of its last five games against UK (4-0, 1-0 SEC), which is off to another strong start under 11th-year coach Mark Stoops.

Florida also hasn't fared well in games away from The Swamp under second-year coach Billy Napier, going a combined 1-6 in road and neutral games.

Staying upright: Florida Gators QB Graham Mertz playing at high level but needs protection to survive in SEC

Getting healthier: Florida football: WR Eugene Wilson III, C Kingsley Eguakun back for Kentucky game

A win against the Wildcats would prolong UF's current three-game win streak and keep the Gators in the hunt for a division title in the final year of the SEC East.

The game will pit two of the top scoring defenses in the SEC, as UF is tied for second with Alabama in fewest points allowed per game (13.5), while Kentucky is fourth (15.5 ppg).

"They've been able to be very consistent as a program and as a team is because they play really good defense," Napier said. "They've got an identity. They understand who they are and how they play. It's a veteran group, and I think they've added a couple transfers also that have provided depth at certain positions."

Here are five storylines to watch in Saturday's Florida-Kentucky matchup:

Can the Florida football defense limit UK's explosive plays?

Strong-armed Kentucky quarterback Devin Leary has led the Wildcats to 53 pass plays of 20 yards or more on the season. The Wildcats have a strong receiving corps led by Virginia Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson (16 catches, 283 yards, 3 TDs), Barion Brown (15 catches, 214 yards, 1 TD) and Dane Key (13 catches, 196 yards, 2 TDs), who caught a 55-yard TD pass against the Gators last season. Florida has surrendered just 19 pass plays of 20 yards or more, but two have gone for TDs --- a 70-yard TD catch by receiver Money Parks in the Utah game and a 55-yard TD catch by Bru McCoy in the Tennessee game. "Explosive (plays) will be important in this game," Napier said. "In particular when you're defending Kentucky, a lot of their explosives come when the ball gets to the second level in the run game and then also you got to survive the three-level vertical pass game, the shots off play action. I think the receiver group is talented. The two kids who played as rookies last year that are in year two, the Virginia Tech transfer gives them some diversity of players in all three areas but it's a huge part of this matchup for sure."

Will the return of Florida Gators center Kingsley Eguakun impact Florida's ability to execute in the red zone?

Eguakun has missed three of UF's first four games with a leg injury, with the exception being against Tennessee. With Eguakun at center against the Vols, UF went 5 for 5 on red zone scoring chances, with four TDs and a field goal. Without him, the Gators are 12 for 14 on scoring chances inside the red zone with 7 TDs. Overall, Florida will need to execute better in the red zone and convert more touchdowns to pick up an SEC road win. Eguakun's communication ability should help limit procedural issues and his blocking ability could result in better success in short yardage near the goal line.

Will either UF football or UK establish the run?

Kentucky and Florida rank 1st and 2nd the SEC in run defense. The Wildcats are allowing just 77.5 yards per game on the ground on 2.6 yards per carry, while UF is surrendering just 82 yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry. Florida needs to do a better job of balancing the carries between Montrell Johnson Jr and Trevor Etienne after Johnson had 16 carries to Etienne's 8. On defense, UF's goal is to contain Kentucky feature back Ray Davis, who rushed for 2 TDs last week against Vanderbilt and has rushed for 314 yards and 5 TDs on the season. Davis, a transfer from Vanderbilt, rushed for 122 yards against the Gators last season. "It's gonna be real important," Florida defensive lineman Cam Jackson said, "Like I tell the D-Line, it always starts with us. We trying to make the team a one-dimensional team, so we stop the run, we're gonna make them, we're gonna try and make them a throwing team."

Who will win the turnover margin?

Kentucky has forced eight turnovers in four games, tied with Auburn and Arkansas for the most takeaways in the SEC. Last week against Vanderbilt, Kentucky cornerback Maxwell Hairston returned two interceptions for TDs, so Florida quarterback Graham Mertz is going to need to be careful throwing to his side. The Gators have been disciplined taking care of the ball with just four turnovers in four games, but UF's defensive has forced just one takeaway. "We know the turnover margin is important in this league," Napier said. "If you win the turnover margin, you win three out of four games, right, so we talk about attacking the ball, owning the ball. And so far, we take care of the ball pretty good. But I do think defensively, one of our points of emphasis is getting more takeaways. But it'll be critical in this matchup for sure."

Can Florida play a clean game on special teams?

Florida has found a reliable kicker in Trey Smack (6 for 6 on field goal attempts) but had two bad costly penalties on returns last week against Charlotte. Plus, the Gators had numerous instances in which they lined up with just 10 plays on punt returns and field goal blocks. Kentucky's Barion Brown (2 career kickoff returns for TDs) is a dangerous return man that UF will need to contain regardless of how many players are on the field. Napier noted that many players who are contributing on special teams are true freshmen with high upsides. "We've got to eliminate some of these communication errors, game day operation errors, much like you guys have talked about," Napier said. "But I do think that -- I believe it's an area on our team where we have a chance to continue to improve because the personnel that's out there playing."

Prediction

Florida 23, Kentucky 20: Florida's defense will again rise to the occasion, forcing a key turnover like it did against Tennessee to establish some early momentum. From there, the Gators will find a way to pull out a close game on a late field goal by Smack.

This article originally appeared on The Gainesville Sun: Scouting report Florida Gators football at Kentucky Wildcats