No. 18 Texas vs. No. 4 TCU: Who the experts are predicting to win

It’s not like Texas has been that good.

It’s been conveniently forgotten – especially by the College Football Playoff committee – that Texas lost to a mediocre Texas Tech and was the last team Oklahoma State was able to score on.

But both of those games were on the road.

Texas doesn’t do anything easily. The defense has been hit-or-miss, and TCU will be able to move the ball however it wants to.

Being at home will matter, though.

TCU has only turned it over multiple times twice all year, and those came in the two Big 12 road games.

It’ll be close throughout with lots of big plays and momentum shifts with Texas getting out of the shootout on a late field goal and defensive stop. – Pete Fiutak

Prediction: Texas 37, TCU 34

That’s a big line, especially when you consider five of Texas’ seven games against Power Five teams this season have been decided by a possession or less. And you could argue, perhaps outside of Alabama, TCU is the best team the Longhorns have faced. There’s also the added intrigue here with Texas analyst Gary Patterson set to coach against his former team. Patterson is a huge advantage this week – nobody knows TCU’s personnel better – but I still don’t think Texas covers. TCU is going to be able to move the ball against a shaky Longhorn pass defense. Plus, the Horned Frogs play everyone close. – Chris Hummer

Prediction: Texas 38, TCU 35

Finally, the Big 12’s last remaining unbeaten will fall this week and playoff hopes will be altered a bit for the fourth-ranked Horned Frogs. Laying a touchdown here with the Longhorns is living on the edge a bit, but Texas is explosive enough offensively where if Steve Sarkisian gets a lead in this game, I don’t think he’ll take his foot off the accelerator. TCU has played with fire far too often this season and this is the week where Sonny Dykes’ crew is burned. – Brad Crawford

Prediction: Texas 35, TCU 20

All eyes are on TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston. Duggan’s top target missed most of last week’s game with an ankle injury and his absence was evident in the team’s offensive output: TCU had season-lows in points (34) and passing yards (195).

Not having Johnston on the field obviously hinders TCU’s ability to dominate the passing game the way it can with him, but Duggan still has the arm and the targets to set the pace against the Longhorns’ vulnerable secondary.

Taye Barber (23 receptions, 450 yards, 3 TDs) and Derius Davis (28-385-5) are more than capable of creating space and tight end Jared Wiley is a solid threat in scoring position standing at 6-foot-7, scoring 4 touchdowns off 12 catches this season.

Those options, plus the Frogs’ rushing capacity, could tilt the game in their favor. TCU is 13th nationally running the ball and is 5th with 25 rushing touchdowns behind Kendre Miller’s 6.6 ypc average and 12 scores on the ground.

But the game could be won or lost at the line when TCU’s pursuit group lines up against Bijan Robinson, a job that gets easier for the Horned Frogs’ defense if it can contain Ewers’ big arm and reduce the Longhorns attack to one dimension. – James Parks

Prediction: TCU 37, Texas 30

This could wind up being the most important game remaining on the regular season schedule for the Longhorns. Meanwhile, this looks like one of the most challenging games on the docket for the Horned Frogs this fall.

In fact, what was likely the toughest road environment that TCU played in so far this season was in Lawrence against the Kansas Jayhawks last month.

It is sure to be an electric environment on the night of Nov. 12 at DKR. This looks to be one of the hottest tickets of any game in the Big 12 this season between Texas and TCU this weekend. And that comes with good reason since we could be looking at one or two of the teams competing in the Big 12 Championship Game in this contest.

I like Texas’ chances in this game, as long as Sark and his squad shows up to play in the second half. TCU hasn’t faced a team quite like Texas so far this season, which should test its defense in ways Dykes and his staff haven’t seen up to this point. – Andrew Miller

Prediction: Texas 38, TCU 28

As crazy as it sounds, give me the Texas Longhorns to win this game outright. Ankle injuries can be finicky and if Johnston isn’t able to go or isn’t 100%, the Texas defense will cause the TCU running game some issues. On the flip side, Bijan Robinson is one of the top three ball carriers in the country and is a legitimate NFL-caliber three-down back. – Bryan Clinton

Prediction: Texas 33, TCU 30

This line has moved down a half-point, and it should. The disrespect card continues to be played against the Horned Frogs, who have been the most-consistent team in the Big 12 all season. Texas is 1-2 S/U when favored seven points or less this season, and TCU is 6-2 in this series in the CFP era. – Bill Bender

Prediction: TCU 38, Texas 33

Paul Myerberg: Texas

Jace Evans: Texas

Scooby Axson: Texas

Erick Smith: Texas

Eddie Timanus: TCU

Dan Wolken: TCU

 

CJ Mumme: Texas 38, TCU 34

Joey Hickey: TCU 37, Texas 27

Cami Griffin: Texas 34, TCU 31