NIT betting, odds: Why UAB is the pick in an all-Conference USA final
The NIT brings us an all-Conference USA final as the North Texas Mean Green go head-to-head with the UAB Blazers. This will be the fourth time these Conference USA rivals have faced each other this season. I’m not trying to hype this one up as if it’s Pacquiao-Marquez IV, but the familiarity between these two foes makes it an intriguing handicap. North Texas holds the edge in the series by winning the first two games, but UAB got revenge when it mattered most, as it cruised to a 76-69 win in the conference tournament.
The road to the championship game hasn’t been easy. Each team had to scratch and claw its way out of the semifinals in different ways. After building a 10-point lead early in the first half, Utah Valley pushed UAB to overtime before the Blazers eventually outscored them in an 88-86 thriller.
On the other hand, North Texas did it the only way they knew how, with defense. The Mean Green completely locked down Wisconsin’s offense in the second half, setting the stage for a highly improbable comeback. The 14-point first-half deficit isn’t what made it shocking; it was North Texas holding the Badgers scoreless in the final 9:07 of the game. It was a brilliant defensive performance that willed North Texas to a 56-54 win. Despite allowing the Badgers to score 41 in the first half, it was the eighth time North Texas held its opponent under 60 points in the last nine games. Who was the last team to drop 60+ against the Mean Green defense? The UAB Blazers in a 76-69 victory in the Conference USA tournament.
UAB (-1.5) over North Texas (O/U 127.5)
In a game for all the marbles, it makes sense that the total is lower than your typical game, but 127.5 tells me the oddsmakers expect North Texas to have a decent amount of success slowing UAB down. We didn’t see that in the conference tournament, but the Mean Green certainly did a better job of dictating the pace against UAB during the regular season. UAB’s leading scorer, Jordan Walker, missed the first game with an injury, a 63-52 loss which I don’t put much stock into for obvious reasons. The next two games with Walker on the floor, the two teams split 1-1, with UAB being held to 62 points in regulation in the game they would eventually drop in double overtime. So it makes sense most bettors’ position on the total will be correlated to which side they like, with the ability to force the tempo as the determining factor.
North Texas’ amazing defensive performance in the final nine minutes against Wisconsin masks my biggest concern for the Mean Green in this matchup. Falling behind so quickly is going to come back to bite you eventually. When these two teams played less than three weeks ago, the Blazers blitzed them by jumping out to a massive 22-2 lead in the first 11 minutes. Falling behind by 20 points is a problem in itself, but scoring only one bucket (on a layup) halfway through the first half tells me North Texas will struggle to create open looks when UAB turns up the dial on defense. The Blazers are 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency this month and will get its share of blocks, turnovers and rebounds to fuel its transition offense.
North Texas had no answer for Walker the last time these teams played, as “Jelly” drained six 3-pointers and scored 32 points in a game North Texas never saw the lead. Big-time players step up in the biggest moments, and the Blazers will have the best player on the floor. I’m confident UAB wins the tug-of-war on tempo, and I’m betting Walker leads them to victory. My wager is on the UAB to cover the short spread. The Bet: UAB -1.5
Stats provided by kenpom and barttorvik
