Nine factors that will decide the NBA Finals between Raptors and Warriors

By William Lou and Vivek Jacob

Here are nine things that will go a long way in deciding the NBA Finals between the Toronto Raptors and the Golden State Warriors.

1. These are Golden State’s vitals

Well, what’s there to be said about the Warriors that hasn’t been said before. They are the two-time defending champions, winners of three of the past four titles and are playing for the Larry O’Brien trophy for the fifth straight year.

Looking at that history and the all-time legacy the Warriors are on the brink of, there is danger in showing too much respect to the opponent. When asked about the possibility of that, Kyle Lowry said the key is to maintain focus on themselves and the task at hand.

“We know who they are, we gotta do our job,” Lowry said Monday. “Our biggest thing is preparing ourselves just to be prepared, for us. It’s our first day of preparation, got two more days to prep, more film to watch, being on the court together, gotta prepare ourselves to be ourselves.”

Golden State began the season 23-13 in the midst of frustration in the locker room, some health issues, and questions swirling over the pending free agency of Kevin Durant. The latter two issues continue to persist, but they finished the year 34-12 and looked much more like the juggernaut people have come to expect after the all-star break.

Since Dec. 29, the Warriors had the second-best net rating of plus-9.9 behind the Utah Jazz, per Cleaning the Glass. They scored a league-best 118.7 points per 100 possessions and allowed a sixth-best 108.8. That has remained consistent into the postseason, where they still hold the top offensive mark at 117.8 points per-100, and the defense has been average among the 16 teams at 111.2. Based on the playoff numbers, this is a clash between the second and third-best net ratings.

The Warriors are 5-0 in the playoffs without Durant after starting 6-4 with him, so are they actually better without him? No, don’t fall for that, but one thing that may be fair to say is that they are more comfortable playing to the identity of who they are without him. The two-time Finals MVP has already been ruled out for Game 1, and there is a decent possibility that he is ruled out for Game 2 as well. Beating the Steph-Curry-as-the-top dog-Warriors will be a very difficult task, but after trailing early in each of the three series leading up to the Finals, how the Raptors start will be absolutely vital to their chances.

The Raptors and Warriors met twice in the regular season, and Toronto won both meetings. Kawhi Leonard and Durant had an epic duel in the first encounter on Nov. 29 which Steph Curry, Draymond Green and DeMarcus Cousins missed due to injury. The Raptors won 131-128 in overtime despite Durant’s 51 points, while Leonard finished with 37. The second meeting came on Dec. 12, when the Raptors won 113-93 despite the absence of Leonard and losing Jonas Valanciunas to injury. The Warriors were missing both Cousins and Andre Iguodala.

2. How do the Warriors defend?

Like the Raptors, the Warriors are a malleable bunch high on IQ and versatility. Granted, they lose some of that with the absence of Durant, but as they showed in the final two games against the Houston Rockets and for four games against the Portland Trail Blazers, there’s still plenty left to get the job done.

Playing together at such a high level for such a long time means the Warriors have inculcated excellent defensive habits, and you see them in the way they rotate on a string and can trap and recover seamlessly. They know when to double, when to bait with stunts, and when to swipe at the ball without fouling and create turnovers.

Look to abuse Curry in mismatches and the Warriors will activate pre-switch mode, with Curry rushing toward a tertiary player as soon as his man even sniffs the idea of setting a screen. This is something Golden State did to great effect whenever the Houston Rockets tried to single him out against James Harden.

When the Raptors travelled to Oakland in December, they didn’t look to get him switched onto a Pascal Siakam or Kyle Lowry, but instead looked to post-up Danny Green against him. The Raptors’ most potent 3-point threat during the regular season proved more than capable of taking advantage of the opportunity and got himself some easy buckets. Now, that game happened without Leonard, and the first meeting didn’t feature Curry, so it will be interesting to see if Toronto does look to seek him out.

Remember the Bucks being terrific at limiting shot attempts at the rim? Well, since that Dec. 29 mark, the Warriors finished tied with Milwaukee for first at allowing just 31.1 percent of opponent’s field goal attempts at the rim. They were closer to league average in terms of percentage allowed at the rim (62.4 percent) and that can be attributed to their overall lack of shot blocking. After averaging career block rates of 2.4 and 2.5 percent the past two seasons, respectively, Durant is down to 1.5 percent this season, still a very good mark for a forward but not quite the elite level of the past two seasons. How willing will he be to contest in the trenches fresh off an injury? Time will tell.

The Warriors were about league average in forcing turnovers during the regular season, but have been one of the best at doing so during the playoffs. Toronto has been very good at taking care of the ball — in part because of Leonard’s ability to control the half-court game — and so one should expect that to be a strength for the Raptors.

3. How does Golden State look to score?

While the Warriors finished near the bottom of the league in field goal attempt rate at the rim (32 percent), their 69.2 shooting percentage at the rim led the league (post-Dec. 29). They also led the league in shooting from the mid-range and were also the best 3-point shooting team when you factor in volume. Yes, this will absolutely be the biggest test for the Raptors defense.

The Raptors could dare Philly to beat them from the outside and challenge Milwaukee to find a way without Giannis Antetokounmpo at superhuman levels, but the Warriors will gladly take whatever is given to them and find a way to be successful. This is what allows them to go on those big runs in short bursts and really come at you in waves. At practice Tuesday, Fred VanVleet spoke of the importance of understanding that those runs might happen despite the Raptors’ best efforts, and that they just need to find a way to play through it.

“I think that's a big part of playing against these guys, is knowing how hot they get, and they are really explosive — we've dealt with that. That's the playoffs in general, I think. Philly went on some crazy runs against us. I know Milwaukee certainly did a couple of those games. Some of the games we were fine and some we weren’t.

“We understand what it's going to take to get yourself out of those situations, and you've just got to know it's not going to be a perfect game and there's no perfect game plan. You're not going to play perfect. So you've just got to weather the storm, stay locked in, keep competing, keep fighting, and they make a couple in a row, keep taking the ball out, take it down the other way, and let it fly. So, just got to continue to keep scrapping and playing our game, and I think the rest will take care of itself.”

While there’s generally been a decrease in the Warriors’ mid-post action without Durant, what becomes an even greater threat is the dreaded Curry-Green pick-and-roll. Draymond Green is just so intelligent and the matchup of wits in this series is an aspect that will be thoroughly fascinating. Green will slip the screen when Curry is trapped and that’s what usually triggers a chain of events that leaves the defense helpless. Green usually gets the ball heading towards the basket, the help has to come, which results in an alley-oop for the big, or 3-pointers from the weakside extended elbow or corner. The Raptors themselves have been on a string plenty during the playoffs, but their ability to defend these actions will be pivotal.

If there is an aspect of the Warriors’ offense that leaves something to be desired, it’s their ability to take care of the ball. They are below league average in this respect and with the Raptors finishing as the top team in the league in transition scoring, they will need to ensure they take advantage of the opportunities presented to them when the likes of Curry and Green are careless with the ball.

4. Can the Raptors slow down Curry?

Slowing down Curry is an absolute must. The Warriors are truly The Warriors when Curry is at his best, and that was borne out yet again in their sweep over Portland where Curry averaged 36 points and seven assists per game.

The problem is that there is no book on stopping Curry. This isn’t like Joel Embiid who could be matched for strength in the post, or building a wall against Antetokounmpo’s drives. He’s lethal both on or off the ball, and his mere presence will open opportunities for the Warriors’ supporting pieces to capitalize.

Curry playing off the ball is the lesser of two evils. Depending on how the whistle blows on any given night, the Raptors can rough up Curry and limit his touches because he’s small. However, it’s not as if the Warriors aren’t prepared to counter this, because Curry will cut away from the contact, duck behind baseline threes, set back screens to free his bigs, and the Warriors have quality playmakers who know just exactly how to deliver the ball to Curry in that one tiny sliver of an instant in which he’s open. The Raptors must communicate, make the right switches, and stay focused at all times.

It’s an even bigger issue when Curry operates with the ball. As noted previously, the high pick-and-roll with Green has been a staple of their offense going back four seasons, and the Warriors can run that play in their sleep. The Raptors can either try to play it straight up and risk Curry pulling up from deep, trap Curry but allow Green to make plays in a 4-on-3 setting, or switch and try to survive Curry attacking one-on-one in a mismatch. None of those options are particularly palatable.

The Raptors will likely start with Lowry on Curry, while VanVleet will pick up the tab once he checks in. Lowry and VanVleet are both diligent defenders who have excellent instincts. However, if Curry starts getting hot, the Raptors should consider changing the look and sticking length on Curry. Danny Green could fill that role, but don’t be surprised if Pat McCaw also gets some limited run using his all-out hustle to exhaust Curry.

5. Consider Kawhi on Draymond

Half the responsibility of stopping Curry comes down to whoever is guarding the screener. Odds are the Warriors will vary their looks depending on who they’re trying to attack, but all things being equal, Golden State would prefer to involve Green because he offers the best combination of rugged screen setting, finishing on the move, along with pin-point playmaking.

For that reason, the Raptors should stick Leonard on Green to deny their first option. Slipping passes by Leonard’s 7-foot-4 wingspan will be an adventure, and the Raptors will feel more than comfortable with Leonard defending Curry on a switch. The Warriors will probably adjust and try to play through their centers, or perhaps even through Andre Iguodala, but that’s still preferable to Green being involved. Siccing Leonard on Green also activates Leonard as a help defender, because Green isn’t a particularly lethal shooter.

Assigning Leonard to Green will also help the Raptors slow down the Warriors’ transition game. Green’s ability to run point allows Curry and Thompson to fan out and attack scrambling defenders. Leonard checking Green should have a similar effect to when Leonard smothered Ben Simmons in the Sixers series, as Leonard’s physicality and mobility will prevent Green from pushing ahead.

6. Can Gasol and Ibaka stay on the floor?

The full list of centers who have been successful against the Warriors in the playoffs over their four-year run of dominance is short: Tristan Thompson, Steven Adams, and Serge Ibaka in 2016, and Montrezl Harrell in 2019. The commonality between those four is that they were athletic hustle players who punished the Warriors by being physical.

Gasol doesn’t fit that profile at all. Even when he was at his best during the 2015 Western Conference semifinals between the Grizzlies and the Warriors, Gasol was still a negative in five of the six games. Gasol’s rim protection and positional awareness was crucial against the Magic, Sixers and Bucks, but the Warriors present another issue altogether, especially when they downsize and play smallball. Ibaka is a better fit on paper, but he’s also inconsistent. At his best, Ibaka is a physical force who is capable of dominating the game, but his energy and confidence tends to waiver. This is an awful matchup for both of Toronto’s centers.

The Warriors are shorthanded for now, so the Raptors should still be able to play their centers. Gasol should match DeMarcus Cousins’ minutes, while Ibaka counters Kevon Looney. However, the Warriors can slide Green to center once Durant returns, and that’s when the Raptors run into an issue of attrition. Toronto might have to rely once again on VanVleet or Norman Powell to provide a boost off the bench, and that’s just a dangerous formula against the Warriors.

7. Can the Warriors guard Leonard?

The main reason to be optimistic about the Raptors is that the Warriors don’t have a solution for Leonard while Durant is out. Iguodala will draw the assignment, but he’s dealing with calf soreness and won’t be able to play 40 minutes a night at his advanced age without breaking down physically. Past that, the Warriors will have to rely on Thompson, but Leonard is bigger and stronger and should be able to exhaust his legs going the other way.

Chances are the Warriors will opt to double Leonard and force the Raptors to win playing 4-on-3. Gasol’s playmaking will be vital in those advantage scenarios, but it will ultimately come down to Leonard’s teammates making shots, and that has occasionally been a problem throughout the playoffs.

Nevertheless, Leonard should have his way in this series. In his last meeting against the Warriors in the postseason, Leonard racked up 26 points in 24 minutes and physically pulverized a historically elite team that went 16-1 throughout the playoffs. Expect more of the same in this series from Leonard, especially if the Warriors remain shorthanded on the wing.

8. KD changes the entire series

A healthy Durant changes the whole equation, but it’s still unclear if he’ll even appear in the series. Durant did travel with the Warriors to Toronto, but he wasn’t made available for media, and speculation is that he hasn’t yet progressed to on-court activities. Even if Durant were to return, odds are that he won’t be 100 percent.

Offensively, there’s nobody on the planet who can stop Durant, and that includes Leonard. Look no further than their meeting in November, when Durant dropped 51 points on Leonard in a narrow overtime loss. Durant is simply unfair, and he’s the ultimate bailout option when the Warriors’ egalitarian offense gets stuck. Durant’s return would also take Leonard off the assignment of guarding Green, which should boost the Warriors’ pick-and-roll game.

Durant’s potential return also makes a world of difference on defense, as the Warriors would have another option to throw at both Leonard and Siakam. Durant is at his best when he’s crashing in from the weak side for blocks, but he’s also a gangly seven-footer who can make life difficult for the best players in the world. Without him, the Raptors could potentially wear Green or Iguodala out by attacking through Leonard and Siakam, but the numbers would suddenly suit the Warriors if Durant also emerged as a viable option to split the workload.

However, the most devastating consequence of Durant’s return would be allowing the Warriors to play small ball. Without OG Anunoby (who is questionable for Game 1 but unlikely to see extended run after undergoing an appendectomy) the Raptors simply don’t have enough 3-and-D wings to match the Death Lineup. Toronto will downsize with VanVleet in place of its centers, but that would leave the Raptors undersized at every position.

9. The Raptors’ path to victory

Toronto’s best bet is to kill the pace and run the 2015 Cavaliers strategy of playing ugly. Golden State is short on 3-point shooting outside of the Splash Brothers, so the Raptors should be able to frequently send double teams and reasonably manage the Warriors’ efficiency in the half court. Most defenses panic at the sight of the Warriors, but the Raptors are stocked with high IQ defenders who should be able to execute their game plan without coming apart. If the Raptors manage to keep the Warriors out of transition, they’ll have a good chance in the series.

Offensively, it will be the same formula. Leonard is good for an efficient 35 points a night, while Lowry and Siakam can chip in around the margins by attacking mismatches. Golden State also has a habit of being careless, so the Raptors can also supplement their scoring with some easy transition baskets. The Warriors are capable of playing lockdown defense, but they’re inconsistent and shorthanded.

With home court advantage in their favor, the Raptors should be considered slight favorites. However, if Durant manages to return at full strength at some point before Game 3, then the series shifts in favor of the Warriors. Either way, this promises to be the most competitive Finals matchup since 2016.

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