Nightengale's Notebook: 10 biggest questions for next week's MLB trade deadline
COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — Four months of games are behind us on the baseball calendar. The All-Star Game has come and gone. Only a pennant run remains.
And here we are, arriving at that magical time of the season.
The Major League Baseball trade deadline.
The deadline is barely a week away, Tuesday, Aug. 1, with all deals needing to be consummated by 6 p.m. ET.
There are 29 teams hoping that the Los Angeles Angels lose every single game this week and make Shohei Ohtani available.
There are about 15 contenders hoping that the San Diego Padres and New York Mets continue their embarrassing downward spirals and surrender.
There are folks at the Major League Baseball Players Association hoping the big spenders turn it around, proving that spending equals success, with the Mets, Yankees and Padres dropping $880 million on the outside looking in.
Those in the MLB offices are pulling for the small-market teams – yes, we’re talking about the Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks – proving to owners that you don’t need to empty your checkbooks to contend.
And there are millions of fans – plenty who love to vent their frustration on social media – demanding their teams to go all-in, and fire anyone who doesn’t share their opinion.
Well, entering a week in which trade speculation will be rampant, here are the top 10 questions leading up to D-Day 2023:
1. Let’s get it out of the way: does Shohei Ohtani stay or go?
The Angels don't intend to trade Ohtani – and just the mere thought is gut-wrenching – but everyone keeps waiting to see if owner Arte Moreno changes his mind.
Moreno’s closest friends in MLB tell him that he’s nuts if they trade him. They tell him it’s not worth the hatred of Angels fans if he gets dealt.
Simply, if Ohtani leaves as a free agent, that’s on the player, providing the Angels at least try to sign him.
If Ohtani is traded, that’s on Moreno, since Ohtani wants to stay put through at least the regular season.
Sure, the Angels could get perhaps some top prospects if they trade Ohtani, but realistically, no matter how great the potential of the prospects, it won’t come remotely close to equalling the value of Ohtani.
Forget Ohtani’s talent on the field, he also makes the Angels plenty of dough. The Angels earn about $20 million annually, excluding ticket sales, from Ohtani. Check out those suites behind home plate at Angel Stadium, including the one that powerful agent Scott Boras and his staff used to occupy. Well, they are now covered by Japanese advertising signage at the tune of $8 million.
Do you really think Moreno wants to flush away that payday, not to mention the tickets he’ll sell if Ohtani is bidding to break Aaron Judge’s American League home-run record in September?
If Ohtani is traded, their 33,535-average attendance could decline by at least 10,000 a game, season-ticket holders may burn their renewals and the franchise value will instantly plummet.
And who would blame Mike Trout for asking if he can go, too?
The verdict: Ohtani stays, particularly in light of the Angels’ sweep over the Yankees, moving them to within four games of the final wild-card berth. They also are expected to get Trout, Brandon Drury and Logan O’Hoppe back in August.
But if the Angels have a rotten week, Moreno will listen to his front office, and see if they can convince him their future would be better if Ohtani departs.
2. Now that the Orioles have climbed into first place, will they go all in, going where no Baltimore team has gone since 1983?
GM Mike Elias didn’t launch this massive rebuild, tearing down the organization to its bare studs, tanking their way to 115 losses, 108 losses and 110 losses in three consecutive full seasons, to suddenly reverse course, and trade prized prospects for rentals.
The Orioles know their time has arrived, but just like the Astros accomplished with Elias as their assistant GM under Jeff Luhnow, they are building a power that has sustained success.
They will not only be good this year, but perhaps will be haunting the Yankees and Red Sox for the next decade.
3. Will the Padres and Mets wave the white flag?
The Padres, much more than the Mets, still seem delusional thinking they will get back into the race. They have been a mediocre team all season, and nothing is going to magically change the second half.
They should swallow their pride and trade All-Star outfielder Juan Soto, getting back at least some of the value in the prospects they traded away in the first place to land him from the Washington Nationals. Yet, there has been no hint that he’s available. They instead are likely to shop All-Star closer Josh Hader and starter Blake Snell, barring a sudden and dramatic winning streak.
The floundering Mets appear to have a much greater sense of reality. They are not going to make the playoffs, and they know it.
They will shop closer David Robertson and outfielders Tommy Pham and Mark Canha, among others.
They will also listen to offers for Cy Young winners Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, but considering their struggles this year and the fact they are each owed $43 million next season with about $18 million remaining on this year’s deals, their return will be greatly diminished.
The Mets, who finally have their projected opening-day rotation healthy, will start making deals focusing on 2024 and the future.
4. Can the Diamondbacks capitalize on their opening to win the NL West?
This may be the D-backs’ greatest opportunity to win the NL West. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been tormented by injuries. The Padres have imploded. And the San Francisco Giants are trying to thread the needle of winning and building.
A year from now, Ohtani could be with the Dodgers or perhaps the Giants.
The D-backs are in desperate need for pitching. They have only two veteran starters they can count on with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. They don’t have a closer. And they could use another setup man.
The D-backs, who just lost their $75 million TV deal, will be aggressive but not reckless, coming away with least one veteran starter, and perhaps a reliever or two. They’re certainly not about to throw away a valuable piece of the future when they’re already in prime position to win at least a wild-card berth.
5. How about the Reds, the most surprising team in baseball, who find themselves in position to win the NL Central?
Well, just like the D-backs, they have an abundance of young position players, five rookies in their lineup, but they need pitching. Lots of it. It’s remarkable that they’re winning with talented young starters Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft missing so much time with injuries. Rookie Andrew Abbott has been sensational, but the Reds are expected to shut him down before the season as he approaches his career-high in innings.
The Reds should grab a starter, making the Milwaukee Brewers uncomfortable, but aren’t about to surrender any of their top prospects.
6. The Cardinals are suddenly starting to win – right after president John Mozeliak announced they are selling – so will their abruptly change their mind?
Where has this team been?
They finally are playing like everyone envisioned, reside in the weakest division in the NL, where nobody is capable of running away.
Sorry, just too little, and far too late.
The Cardinals, no matter how much the fan base may scream, or their players complain, are still open for business and trading away assets that don’t figure to be around next season.
So, starters Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, each who are eligible for free agency in November, could be gone. Closer Jordan Hicks and perhaps injured reliever Ryan Helsley. Infielders Tommy Edman and Paul DeJong could be gone too. And outfielders Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill better not send out their laundry, either.
They will keep infield cornerstones Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, and outfielders Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar, try to build around them this winter, and hope that they are back to the Cardinals Way in 2024.
7. Who are the best pitchers available?
You’ve got Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks from the Cubs, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Mike Clevinger, Joe Kelly and Kendall Graveman from the White Sox, Montgomery and Flaherty in St. Louis, perhaps Scherzer, Verlander, Robertson and Jose Quintana in New York, Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Lorenzen in Detroit, Paul Blackburn of the Oakland A’s, and maybe Hader and Snell in San Diego.
Former Guardians Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, who was supposed to be on the block for offensive help, now is staying put, sidelined until August with elbow inflammation.
The best of the starters may be Snell, except he just walked seven batters in his last start. Stroman may be the second-best, but he has yielded a 6.16 ERA this month.
Hader, the five-time All-Star closer, is easily the best reliever available.
8. How about the position players?
Cubs outfielder Cody Bellinger, who finally is startling to look a bit like the guy who won the MVP award with the Dodgers, could be the best position player available.
Across town, the White Sox have virtually their entire roster on the market, from infielders Tim Anderson Elvin Andrus, and Yoan Moncada to Eloy Jimenez to Yasmani Grandal.
The Cardinals have the greatest array of talent available with outfielders Carlson and O’Neill, infielders Tommy Edman and Paul DeJong, and catcher Willson Contreras on the block too.
You also have Pham and Canha of the Mets, infielder Jeimer Candelario and outfielder Lane Thomas of the Washington Nationals, first baseman C.J. Cron, outfielder Randal Grichuk and catcher Elias Diaz of the Colorado Rockies.
It’s hardly a star-studded pool, but you never know who becomes the perfect fit?.
If teams had any inclination that Bellinger would have this bounce-back year, hitting .310 with 12 homers and an .887 OPS, he certainly would have had plenty of teams offering him much more than the Cubs’ one-year, $17.5 million deal. He is making just $12.5 million with a $25 million mutual option of $5 million buyout in 2024.
9. What team will be the most aggressive?
The Tampa Bay Rays, who led the division for 97 days, have been nothing more than mediocre for the past two months, finally losing grasp of first place. Still, they realize that this is a talented team capable of winning their first World Series in franchise history.
They’ve got the prospects, and they certainly have the urgency, believing this is the best team they ever assembled.
Keep an awfully close eye on them.
They are poised to strike big.
10. What team will be more passive than envisioned?
The Los Angeles Dodgers.
Yes, they are filthy rich. They have more prospects than any team in baseball.
And they still are looking for their first World Series title in a full season since 1988.
Yet, they entered this season almost satisfied with just a return to the postseason, spending precious little in the free-agent market by not giving anyone a multi-year deal, and saving all of their resources for the great white whale, Ohtani.
It speaks to their surreal depth that they are in first place with every starting pitcher going on the injured list, ace Julio Urias having the worst season of his career, relying on four rookie position players and eight rookie pitchers, and going the entire season without a bonafide closer.
Sure, they will come away with a veteran starter, and some bullpen help too, but they’re gearing up for Ohtani to be an integral part of 2024 and the rest of the decade, while still hanging onto their top prospects.
Their ultra-aggressiveness begins this winter.
Around the basepaths
– MLB owners plan to unanimously elect Commissioner Rob Manfred to a five-year contract extension this week at their meetings in Washington, D.C.
It will take him to 2030 when he’ll be 71 years old.
– Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora’s frustrations were made clear when he implored the front office to be aggressive at the trade deadline and not worry about hoarding their prospects.
“It’s not about how many prospects you have or where your farm system is," Cora told reporters. “The one that really counts is how many games you win in October and how many games you play in October."
The Red Sox lost four starters to injuries in one month from June 1 to July 2 between Chris Sale, Tanner Houck, Corey Kluber and Garrett Whitlock, and are yet to replace one of them with outside help.
– The Seattle Mariners, who were expected to return to the postseason after ending their 21-year drought last year, say they will stand pat at the trade deadline, believing their team simply isn’t good enough to buy.
“We’ve not really separated ourselves in a meaningful way to be aggressive on the buying end," GM Jerry Dipoto said on his weekly radio show. “Last year we were very aggressive in the trade market …. We’re probably not going to be in that market. We’re going to be more in the ‘margins’ market. We are trying to find a way that we can get a little bit better in ’23 and better situate ourselves for ’24.”
– The Phillies are targeting a right-handed corner outfielder in the trade market them, and would love to land Pham from the Mets.
– Congratulations to the Cape Cod League celebrating its 100th anniversary Saturday.
It's baseball’s most prestigious summer wooden bat league, producing hundreds of players on MLB rosters. Each of the 10 teams team had more than 20 players drafted two weeks ago, including five No. 1 picks in the last six years.
“We’ve been around for 100 years," Cape Cod president Andrew Lang told USA TODAY Sports, “but we don’t want to be old-fashioned in everything we do. We’re trying to update fan engagement, media and broadcasting. I have a white board, eight feet wide, four feet tall, filled with ideas. …
“When COVID hit, we weren’t sure what was going to happen, but people realized how much they missed it, and we’re going stronger than ever. Every college player wants to play in the Cape Cod League
‘Hopefully, we can have this thing going for another 100 years.’’
– You think Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo misses Aaron Judge?
In his last 44 games, he’s hitting .180 with a gruesome .217 slugging percentage and .492 OPS, with no home runs and 11 RBI.
– The difference in the Guardians this year, who won the AL Central and nearly knocked off the Yankees in the postseason in 2022?
Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill all made at least 31 starts last season. None of them are in the rotation now, battling injuries.
“(Starters) are really hard to acquire this time of year, especially if you want a guy who can help you win games,’’ said Chris Antonetti, Guardians president of baseball operations. “There’s a difference between getting someone who can just fill innings and someone who can help you win games.”
– The Miami Marlins, the only team who entered Saturday without a victory since the All-Star break, have targeted Nationals switch-hitting third baseman Candelario as a perfect fit.
– Wonderful homecoming for Dodgers reliever Evan Phillips, who was released two years ago from the Baltimore Orioles, and returned to Camden Yards this past week as one of the best relievers in baseball. He has yielded a 1.82 ERA since his release after producing a 7.36 ERA in 44 games in Baltimore.
– Mets rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez is drawing rave reviews from his teammates this year for his maturity and professionalism, aside from his fabulous performance.
“He cares more than any young guy I’ve ever seen come up, ever,” Mets DH Daniel Vogelbach told reporters. “He’s an easy guy to root for. You see a lot of guys come up and think they’ve got it figured out. He is the furthest from that.”
– Remember all of the criticism when the Boston Red Sox signed Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida to a five-year, $90 million contract?
Well, it turned out to be a stroke of genius with Yoshida hitting .315 with 11 homers, 58 RBI and just 38 strikeouts.
– Paul Skenes, the No. 1 draft pick who signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates and attended the Air Force Academy for two years before transferring to LSU, still would love to serve in the military after his baseball career.
“He will serve his country, that’s a big deal to him,” Air Force baseball coach Mike Kazlausky told the Pittsburgh Tribune Review. “During his professional playing days, believe me, he’s going to do a lot for the city of Pittsburgh, probably a lot for our United States of America.’’
– While Jackson Holliday of the Baltimore Orioles may be the No. 1 prospect in baseball, there's even more to come from his family.
His younger brother, Ethan, who is eligible for the 2025 draft, is even better.
“Just wait," says Jackson, the son of former All-Star outfielder Matt Holliday. “You’ll see.’’
– Kudos to LaTroy Hawkins and Kenny Lofton, who are returning home to Gary, Ind. on Tuesday to host a free Still Got Game Foundation youth baseball clinic. Hawkins was born and raised in Gary while Lofton is from nearby East Chicago.
Follow Nightengale on Twitter: @Bnightengale
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB trade deadline 2023: 10 biggest questions, top players available
