NHL's power-play increase could shift competitive balance
NHL games are being called tighter than they have been in recent seasons, and it could have a significant effect on the standings.
While NHL action doesn't look radically different in 2023-24 compared to previous years, there is a notable uptick in penalties called.
Last season, there were an average of 3.07 power-play opportunities per team, and through 138 games (or 10.5% of the season) that number sits at 3.57. That's the highest average the NHL has seen since 2009-10 (3.71) and the biggest season-to-season increase — aside from the post-lockout madness in 2005-06 — since 1999-00 to 2000-01.
That second number isn't guaranteed to hold up as the sample of the 2023-24 season gets larger, but however the particulars net out, it seems like special teams play is going to be a more critical part of team success than it's been in years past. The 0.72 power-play goals teams are scoring on a per-game basis right now is the highest number since 2008-09.
It's no secret that special-teams efficiency has a massive impact on success in any season. In 2022-23, for instance, six of the seven best power-play teams managed 104 points or more. Similarly, the top four penalty killing squads each recorded 108 or more points.
The idea of special teams mattering is nothing new, but it appears they are going to matter more this season than they have lately — and that could affect some teams more than others.
That said, it's difficult to assess team's special-teams strength at this point in the season with so many small samples going around.
So, in order to figure out who might benefit and suffer from this state of affairs, we're going to have to look at previous seasons' numbers as well as 2023-24 rates — while watching for situations where personnel has changed enough to bring the relevance of less recent stats into question.
Teams that will benefit from a penalty-heavy season
New Jersey Devils — The Devils have the best power play in the NHL so far this season (42.4%) and while that number won't hold up, they are still fifth-best in the league including their 2022-23 numbers.
New Jersey overhauled its top unit with the additions of Luke Hughes and Tyler Toffoli, and looks like one of the most dangerous groups the league has to offer. On the penalty-killing side, New Jersey has managed a solid 81.7% since the beginning of last year, good for sixth in the NHL.
New York Rangers — Like the Devils, the Rangers are a team that grades out well on both its power play and penalty kill as those units rank fourth and eighth, respectively, since the beginning of last season.
Unlike the Devils, continuity is also a strength for New York's special teams units as both its top power-play and penalty-killing groups are comprised of players who were with the team in 2022-23.
The Rangers have been particularly consistent with the man advantage, ranking in the top half of the league in every season since 2019-20 and ranking fourth in the league during that time (23.8%).
Toronto Maple Leafs — Toronto has been a power-play powerhouse over the last three seasons, ranking second in the NHL with a 26.9% success rate since the beginning of the 2021-22 campaign. That success is built of a unit comprised of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner and John Tavares, all of whom have been humming as a group early this season.
Only the Oilers can confidently claim to have a stronger power-play unit than Toronto, but the Maple Leafs project to perform better on the penalty kill. Toronto ranks eighth in the NHL in penalty-killing percentage since 2021-22, while the Oilers are 20th over the same period.
The Maple Leafs have had a few notable personnel tweaks, but John Klingberg might be an upgrade over Morgan Rielly on the power play — and experimenting with Matthews and Matthew Knies on the kill has potential. More importantly, the team isn't dealing with the same kind of goaltending disaster as the Oilers.
Teams that could be hurt from a penalty-heavy season
Vegas Golden Knights — Vegas has been solid on special teams out of the gate in 2023-24, but their team hasn't changed much from the one that ranked 18th on the power play and 19th on the kill last season.
This squad may perform better in these areas than it did in 2022-23, but the fact remains that it differentiates itself with its organized and relentless 5v5 play.
Anyone who doubts the Golden Knights right now does so at their peril, but tightly-called games certainly don't benefit them the way they do other squads.
New York Islanders — There is absolutely nothing wrong with New York's penalty killing, despite its early-season mediocrity (79.3%). Having Ilya Sorokin between the pipes is enough to hang an above-average unit on, and this group ranked ninth in the NHL last year (82.2%).
The issue — as it always seems to be with the Islanders — is offensive firepower. Only the Anaheim Ducks and Philadelphia Flyers had a worse power play than New York in 2022-23 (15.8%) and the Islanders aren't off to a roaring start with the man advantage this season (16.0%).
Bo Horvat was supposed to help that unit, but he has just two power-play points thus far, and six in his 38-game Islanders career.
Winnipeg Jets — Winnipeg is in the same boat as the Islanders.
Thanks in part to its goaltending talent, the team has done a solid job killing penalties lately, but power-play goals have been elusive. Last season, the Jets ranked 23rd in the NHL in power-play efficiency (19.3%) and this year they sit at 28th (11.8%).
There is hope for improvement with Aaron Iafallo and a developing Cole Perfetti on the first unit, but Winnipeg probably won't be able to reach its 5v4 potential until Gabe Vilardi returns from his knee injury.
