NHL Under the Radar: Nicklas Backstrom is a unique value disaster
Nicklas Backström has done a lot for the Washington Capitals franchise, but he's not doing much lately.
Every week of the NHL season you can find a column here on everything that may not be making headlines yet — but probably should be.
There are a variety of reasons why an NHL player's production might not align with his salary. Some guys become stars on their entry-level deals, others experience surprising declines after they sign for big money or break out following an extension.
Clubs can get excellent value out of players at the beginning of their contracts with a couple of rough years at the end. There's a push and pull when it comes to weighing average annual value against term, and player development is tough to predict. Age-related downturns also seem to hit some players far harder than others.
It's well understood that a player's salary and what he has to offer on the ice don't always match up, but we begin this week's 'Under the Radar' examining an extreme case of disconnect.
Nicklas Backström is in a league of his own
Bäckstrom is a soon-to-be 36-year-old approaching the end of a deal signed in 2020, it would be unfair to think he'd be a steal in 2023-24.
At the same time, the degree to which the Capitals are getting poor value with the Swede is unique around the NHL.
Looking at the top-40 forwards by cap hit this year, every one except for Bäckstrom is playing at least 15 minutes per night with at least 0.50 points per game. Not all of them are performing at a star level, but each is giving their team something in the way of offensive production.
Bäckstrom, on the other hand, has just one point this season.
That one point was a second assist where he cleared the defensive zone with a backhand up the wall before his teammates started a rush.
Bäckstrom's lack of production has resulted in a downturn in his ice time as he's averaged just 12:20 per game in his last three appearances after getting 15:54 in the first five outings of the season. At the moment he's a third line center who isn't used on the top power-play unit or in critical defensive situations.
We might see a touch more from the Swede — who has had an excellent career — in the weeks to come, but injuries have cost him a lot in recent seasons. Right now he's singular in how little he's providing on his $9.2 million AAV.
The Colorado Avalanche's second pair deserves some shine
Colorado's first defense pair is almost certainly the best the NHL has to offer. Anyone arguing that Cale Makar isn't the league's top blueliner is fighting an uphill battle, and Devin Toews is a perfect complement to the superstar who plays a complete game without discernible weaknesses.
There is a reason Colorado recently signed him to a $50.25 million contract earlier this month, while Makar would make a mind-blowing sum if he were up for a new deal today.
While those two deserve the credit they receive, they clearly overshadow Samuel Girard and Bowen Byram, who are in the midst of a strong start to the season. Neither blue liner has produced much offensively, but the pair has done an excellent job of facilitating and preventing opponents from creating opportunities.
Of the 61 defense pairings who've logged at least an hour of 5v5 time together this season, Girard and Byram rank first in expected goal rate (68.15%) and scoring chance rate (66.67%). The Avalanche have enjoyed a 60-38 shot edge when the pair is on the ice.
Unfortunately for the under-appreciated duo, just three of those 60 shots have found the net, resulting in offensive statistics that don't jump off the page.
These guys are unlikely to get too much attention this season playing behind Makar and Toews, but they are exactly the type of players this column looks to highlight.
Travis Sandheim is having a moment
Sanheim's last 12 months have been a heck of a rollercoaster. Last October he signed an eight-year contract extension with the Philadelphia Flyers only to see them 'aggressively' try to trade him eight months later.
Things have calmed down for him on that count and the departure of Ivan Provorov has allowed him to settle into a far bigger role with the surprisingly respectable Flyers than he's ever had before.
Sanheim currently ranks second in the NHL in average ice time per game (25:59) after never topping 22:58 in any of his prior six seasons. The biggest specific role promotion he's received is becoming the team's power-play quarterback, averaging 2:41 of time with the man advantage per game — way above his previous career-high of 1:02.
That special teams time has helped Sanheim put up some strong offensive numbers.
The NHL's release of new tracking data also revealed that Sanheim has the hardest shot in the NHL at 101.49 mph, which is a good weapon for the Flyers power play to have in its back pocket.
If the 27-year-old stays healthy he'd need just 0.31 points per game from here on out to reach a career-high. That offense, paired with a massive workload and solid defensive play, is a heck of a package — and it's looking like the Flyers will be glad they didn't part with Sanheim in the offseason.
Luke Hughes and the young defenseman dilemma
There's no one way to handle young defensemen, and there's certainly a case to be made for what the New Jersey Devils are doing with Luke Hughes.
By placing the 20-year-old on their third pairing but giving him plenty of power-play time, the team is trying to leverage his impressive skill and offensive creativity while easing him into his defensive responsibilities slowly.
That concept is valid on paper, but in practice, it might be too limiting as to what Hughes can accomplish as a rookie. Playing on New Jersey's third pairing means teaming up with Brendan Smith — a 34-year-old journeyman who's produced 44 points over his previous five seasons skating an average of just 14:23 per night.
Smith's job isn't to light up the scoreboard — but he's a replacement-level type at this point in his career. Playing with him is a little different than spending time on the third pair with another promising youngster or a more skilled veteran.
Early returns are suggesting that Hughes and Smith are not a great match. Below are some with-and-without numbers for the two going back to the debut of the Huges in 2022-23:
Those numbers are a touch extreme and come from a small sample, but they also mesh with our understanding of the two players' talent levels.
Giving Hughes a chance to play in the top four at even strength may result in the odd costly mistake, but the Devils are good enough to weather some bumps and bruises. Hughes projects to be a top-pair defenseman, and pushing him closer to that role could be beneficial for his development.
The third pairing as currently constructed isn't working for either the team or Hughes.
Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry and the perplexing Ducks
Entering 2023-24 there wasn't much reason to believe an Anaheim Ducks squad that ranked 31st in goal scoring last season would be even respectable on offense.
The addition of Alex Killorn projected to help matters, but a broken finger in the preseason made him unable to help in the early going. Second overall pick Leo Carlsson also seemed capable of providing a boost, but he started the year dealing with an injury — and an unusual load management scheme has limited his impact since.
With that in mind, it's surprising to see the Ducks' offense rank in the top half of the NHL (3.13 goals/game). The most logical explanation for that results for someone not following Anaheim closely would be that Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry have gone off, but that simply isn't the case.
The team's most important offensive players have been unimpressive from a raw production standpoint, ranking fourth and 12th on the team in points. So far, Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano, and Mason McTavish have been driving the bus.
While Anaheim can't count on that trio to all generate point-per-game production, the good news for the Ducks is that Zegras and Terry should see their fortunes change soon. Possession metrics suggest the pair is tilting the ice at 5v5, particularly when it comes to scoring chances and goals.
The production is coming for Zegras and Terry, and Anaheim should be encouraged by its ability to weather the duo's early-season slump.
