NFL would you rather? Breaking down Week 6 betting lines

Week 6 of the NFL season got underway on Thursday, with the Washington Commanders earning a 12-7 win over the Chicago Bears in a barn burner. Four teams are on a bye this week, which means we still have 13 more games this weekend across the league. Today, we're taking a look at three separate pairs of games with similar point spreads and deciding which side we'd rather be on if we were forced to choose.

Falcons or Giants?

The Atlanta Falcons are the lone team remaining in the NFL that's undefeated against the spread. This week, the Falcons are a 5.5-point home underdog against the San Francisco 49ers. Elsewhere, the 4-1 New York Giants might be the most surprising team in football. However, they are 6-point home underdogs this weekend against the Baltimore Ravens. Which surprising home underdog would you rather back this week?

Greg: Betting against the Falcons this year has been like trying to grab an ice cream from a Turkish vendor. Just when you think you have it, all you end up with is a massive L and your homies laughing at you. I think they go to 6-0 ATS this week. San Francisco’s vaunted defense could be without their entire defensive line, Emmanuel Moseley is done for the year, Jimmie Ward is out, and Atlanta ranks third in Pass Block Win Rate and 10th in offensive DVOA.

Find someone who loves you like Wink Martindale loves blitzing. Lamar Jackson is phenomenal against the blitz, so it’ll be interesting to see if Baltimore’s former defensive coordinator throws some different looks at Jackson this week. Having Ronnie Stanley back at left tackle is such a huge boost for the Ravens, even if he isn’t 100% yet. Baltimore clamps the Giants offense and Lamar goes Super Saiyan against DVOA’s 25th-ranked defense. It’s a double-bird week for me, give me the Falcons.

Pete: I've been so wrong about the Giants this year, so at this point, a part of me just wants to jump on the bandwagon. Even if I wasn't being burned by the Giants so often, this point spread feels a little high. Baltimore has played a lot of close games outside of their Week 1 win against the Jets. As Greg mentioned, Wink Martindale knows Lamar very well so I wouldn't be surprised to see him throw a few exotic looks at him.

The Falcons are getting to the window for bettors, and I don't hate them in this spot. The 49ers are banged up, especially on defense. However, Atlanta is without Cordarrelle Patterson and might be without Kyle Pitts. They scored two late touchdowns last week, but were being shutout for a majority of that game. I'm not sure this Atlanta offense can take advantage of the depleted 49ers defense, so give me the Giants.

Colts or Browns?

The Indianapolis Colts are 2-point home favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week, trying to avenge a 24-0 loss at the hands of the Jaguars earlier this season. Elsewhere, the Cleveland Browns are 2.5-point home favorites against the New England Patriots. Which two-win team would you rather back as a home favorite laying less than a field goal?

Greg: Is there anything the Colts can do to save their offense? Build a time machine? Purchase some indulgences from the Catholic church? Let Matt Ryan get sacked every play and march up the field via roughing the passer flags? It’s looking bleak in Indianapolis. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence’s Year 2 leap is taking place on the Jump to Conclusions Mat. He’ll be fine eventually, but in the meantime it’s going to be a roller coaster of brilliant throws and head-scratching decisions. At least Jacksonville has some consistency from their stellar defense, which is why I like them to win this game on the road.

Every New England fan who was worried about what the state of the Patriots’ secondary would be after losing J.C. Jackson can chill, because rookie Jack Jones is balling out. Their Achilles’ heel this year has been their run defense, which isn’t exactly ideal when you’re facing Nick Chubb. The Browns are equally bad against the run, so I’m highly intrigued by this matchup between the top two teams in rushing EPA. I lean New England, but I don’t think I would ever bet this game. There’s no way I’m taking the Colts, so I guess I’ll take the Browns.

Pete: If you asked me this question a week ago, it would have been an easy answer. However, Trevor Lawrence soiling the bed against the Houston Texans put a damper on a lot of the good feelings I had about him and the Jaguars. They're officially out of the trust circle. It's very hard to sweep a divisional team and the Jaguars already got one against the Colts this season.

Last season, Bill Belichick took Kevin Stefanski and the Browns to the woodshed, with New England rolling to a 45-7 win. That game caused Myles Garrett to publicly question the coaching staff and a whole lot of other disfunction in Cleveland. Mac Jones is questionable, but I'm all aboard the Bailey Zappe bandwagon anyway. I'll take the Colts in a big divisional game at home.

Cardinals or Bengals?

The Cincinnati Bengals are 2.5-point road favorites against the New Orleans Saints as the reigning AFC champions look to get back to .500 against old friend Andy Dalton. Elsewhere, it's a meeting of 2-3 NFC West teams as the Arizona Cardinals are 2.5-point road favorites against the Seattle Seahawks. Which road favorite would you rather back?

Greg: These may be the two weirdest matchups on the slate and are clear stay-aways for me. Did you finally jump on the Geno Smith bandwagon after that Saints game, Pete? Maybe Geno could pay you to climb aboard with some of those absolute dimes he threw. Seattle somehow enters Week 6 as the No. 1 team in offensive DVOA. What a world. Unfortunately, they also have the 31st-ranked defense. It’s time for Kliff Kingsbury to unleash Kyler Murray’s rushing ability. This game might hit 70 total points.

I was initially pretty keen on the Bengals this week, but their run game has been atrocious and Tee Higgins is questionable to play. Cincinnati’s defense is the best thing they have going for them right now, yet they’re 30th in Run Stop Win Rate and I can see Alvin Kamara and Tay$om Hill pummeling them on the ground. It’s in the Cards for me.

Pete: The Cardinals just feel off to me. It just looks dysfunctional on the field between coach and quarterback. Surprisingly enough, Geno Smith has shown the ability to make teams pay and put up some numbers. Does that officially put me on the bandwagon? This does have the makings of a potential shootout, which I did not expect to say about a Geno Smith led offense.

The Bengals are another team that looks off to me. The offensive creativity is lacking when you consider the talent level of the quarterback and his weapons. At least their defense has been lights out. The Saints are dealing with injuries, as Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Marshon Lattimore are out this weekend. Both of these favorites feel extremely trappy, but I'll roll with Arizona because I have more faith in the Saints than the Seahawks.