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NFL win totals: 5 unders worth betting right away including Carson Wentz and the Commanders

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Trying to figure out which teams are going to come up short of their preseason win totals is always a tricky NFL endeavor. In a league set up for parity there are always a few surprise teams. And with just 17 games, injuries can play an outsize influence in who comes up short at the end of the season.

But we had a few immediate hunches after BetMGM released its 2022 preseason win totals on Thursday. Especially for some teams that are in the midst of rebuilds. Here are five bets we'd place right away.

Detroit Lions (Under 6.5)

The Lions will have some fight again in 2022. They didn’t roll over for teams in 2021 despite their porous record. But this is a roster that has gotten better but not significantly so. Detroit will add talent in the draft and is likely hoping it can land Aidan Hutchinson at No. 2 if he gets past the Jacksonville Jaguars. But the wide receiving corps needs a boost and it’s hard to trust Jared Goff leading a four-win improvement over 2021.

New Orleans Saints (Under 8.5)

Dennis Allen was the logical replacement for the Saints after Sean Payton left the team. But New Orleans hasn’t improved at all this offseason as it deals with the ramifications of kicking the salary cap can down the road for so many years in Drew Brees’ final season. Jameis Winston is back for another run at quarterback and a full season with Winston at QB will be better than what the Saints had to figure out after he injured his knee. But If Payton was the glue that held the Saints together, all New Orleans has to do is regress by a game for this under to hit.

New York Giants (Under 7.5)

Are the Giants four games better in 2022 than in 2021? That’s the bet you’re making if you take New York’s over ahead of the 2022 season. Yes, a full season of Daniel Jones will help, but he wasn’t exactly showing superstar potential when he was on the field. Keeping Saquon Barkley on the field is paramount too, but where is this offense’s other weapons outside of Kenny Golladay? Can Kadarius Toney make a huge leap? It’s reasonable to expect the Giants to be better, but they don’t seem positioned to be a lot better.

Seattle Seahawks (Under 5.5)

It’s hard to be optimistic about Seattle’s roster in the wake of trading Russell Wilson. Seattle is clearly a team playing for the future and it’s easy to see how Seattle’s pick will land in the top 10 of the draft again especially when you consider that the other three teams in the division are the 49ers, Cardinals and defending Super Bowl champion Rams. Playing for 2022 isn’t the right decision for the Seahawks, especially if Drew Lock doesn’t have a massive leap in a new environment.

Washington Commanders (Under 7.5)

It’ll be a shocker if Carson Wentz is the guy who makes the QB carousel in Washington finally stop. We may not be fully appreciating how quickly Wentz wore out his welcome in a stable environment like Indianapolis. And now he’s being asked to be the guy in Washington — a franchise that, uh, is tumultuous. There’s talent in Washington especially on the defensive side of the ball. But it’s hard to see Wentz being consistent enough for a full season for Washington to challenge Dallas and Philadelphia.

ASHBURN, VA - MARCH 17: Quarterback Carson Wentz of the Washington Commanders is introduced at Inova Sports Performance Center on March 17, 2022 in Ashburn, Virginia. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
ASHBURN, VA - MARCH 17: Quarterback Carson Wentz of the Washington Commanders is introduced at Inova Sports Performance Center on March 17, 2022 in Ashburn, Virginia. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)