NFL Week 7 best bets: One wager to make for every team (including the Bills)
Week 7 of the 2023 season kicks off Thursday night with Jaguars-Saints and concludes on Monday when the 49ers and Vikings square off in Minnesota. Even with six teams on a bye, there are plenty of intriguing matchups; only two games have spreads larger than seven points, so the slate is full of games that are projected to be closely contested.
Continuing our weekly series of the best bets for each team, our NFL Wire editors have highlighted 26 wagers you should make, one for every franchise. Ranging from player props to picks against the spread to parlays, we’ve got you covered with plenty of enticing bets for Week 7.
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM:
Jaguars at Saints: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Jaguars: Jaguars ML (+110)
The uncertainty about Trevor Lawrence’s knee may give pause, but don’t overthink this one. All indications in the last month are the Jaguars are simply a better football team than the Saints. Jacksonville is on a three-game win streak, while New Orleans has lost three of its last four. The Saints have injury concerns of their own too, with both of their starting offensive tackles out against a Jaguars team that leads the NFL in takeaways. – Adam Stites, Jaguars Wire
Saints: Rashid Shaheed OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-125)
Shaheed has been a consistent big-play threat and the Jaguars are without top cornerback Tyson Campbell. Shaheed is going to draw a lot of targets from Derek Carr even if there’s pressure in his face. – John Sigler, Saints Wire
Raiders at Bears: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Raiders: Daniel Carlson OVER 1.5 made field goals (-110)
You know a game is going to be ugly when you start talking about field goal props. But that’s where we are at with Raiders-Bears. Carlson is one of the best kickers in the league and the Raiders trust him. With a lot of uncertainty at quarterback, it wouldn’t be a shock if the Raiders had to settle for a lot of long field goals. Kicking in Chicago is always a bit of a challenge, but expect Carlson to make multiple field goals in Week 7. – Marcus Mosher, Raiders Wire
Bears: D.J. Moore OVER 53.5 receiving yards (-120)
Justin Fields is expected to be sidelined with a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand, which means rookie Tyson Bagent is making his first NFL start. Expect the Bears to establish a quick passing game with Bagent and involve his top option Moore, who’s been electric with the ball in his hands. This season, Moore has three 100-yard games, the fifth-most receiving yards in the NFL, has done a lot of damage after the catch and he’s the perfect target for a young quarterback. – Alyssa Barbieri, Bears Wire
Browns at Colts: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Browns: Browns OVER 20.5 total points (-135)
Even without quarterback Deshaun Watson, the Browns dropped 19 points on the San Francisco 49ers with practice squad quarterback P.J. Walker at the helm. This included a missed field goal and a touchdown called back on a holding call. With Watson returning to practice today, the odds of them scoring 20 points, something they have done in ever game their starting quarterback has played in, feels quite small. While the Colts have an above-average run defense, their pass defense falls below par. The Browns, in a dome and without weather restrictions, will be able to put points on the board. Get on this before the line jumps! – Cory Kinnan, Browns Wire
Colts: UNDER 41 total points (-110)
There’s a good chance both teams will be without their starting quarterbacks. Rookie Anthony Richardson is scheduled to undergo season-ending shoulder surgery while Deshaun Watson may miss his third consecutive game due to his own shoulder injury. This matchup is going to feature defense and rushing attacks. The Colts struggled offensively until the fourth quarter in Week 6, scoring just six points before adding two touchdowns in garbage time. The Browns have scored just one touchdown and 22 total points in the last two games without Watson under center. Even if Watson returns for the first time since Sept. 24, this game is shaping up to be a low-scoring affair. – Kevin Hickey, Colts Wire
Bills at Patriots: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Bills: Gabe Davis OVER 33.5 yards receiving (-120)
The Bills always make sure Stefon Diggs gets his touches. That’s going to happen against the Patriots, too. But the talk in Buffalo this week is aimed toward spreading the ball around the offense more. Davis might not get the most looks, but usually a deep ball or two goes his way. Considering the circumstances, and Davis having a down game last week, his over looks likely to happen with a bounce-back performance. – Nick Wojton, Bills Wire
Patriots: Chad Ryland OVER 1.5 field goals made (+140)
The Patriots have scored a grand total of two touchdowns in their last three games combined. Scoring touchdowns is a luxury for the team, even in a home game at Gillette Stadium. That means most of the scoring will likely be done on the leg of rookie kicker Chad Ryland. The Patriots should be able to run the ball effectively and create red zone opportunities against Buffalo’s defense. But their tendency to lose yards on dumb penalties and sacks will ensure Ryland gets enough chances to make two field goals a winning bet.– Jordy McElroy, Patriots Wire
Commanders at Giants: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Commanders: Terry McLaurin OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-110)
While Terry McLaurin hasn’t gone over 100 yards in a single game this season yet, he has gone over 58.5 in two of the last three games as offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is working to him more involved early in the game. In seven career games vs. the Giants, McLaurin averages 92.9 receiving yards per game. He has never gone under 70 yards in one game vs. New York. – Bryan Manning, Commanders Wire
Giants: Saquon Barkley OVER 3.5 receptions (+120)
We get this line at plus money, which makes it a great value. In Barkley’s three games played this season, he’s had four targets, seven targets and five targets, catching at least four passes in every contest. Whether it’s Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, they’re going to try checking the ball down with pass rushers collapsing the pocket quickly, so Barkley will be a good outlet in the flat. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
Falcons at Buccaneers: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Falcons: Bijan Robinson OVER 25.5 receiving yards (-110)
Tampa Bay’s defense could make it tough for Robinson to find running room in Week 7, but the rookie has been a consistent threat catching the ball out of the backfield. Robinson has finished with at least 27 receiving yards in five out of six games this season. It feels like a safe bet that the former Texas star will go over 25.5 yards against the Buccaneers on Sunday. – Matt Urben, Falcons Wire
Buccaneers: Chris Godwin anytime TD (+125)
So I used this one on the first week of the season against the Vikings, and Godwin didn’t score a touchdown in that game — he also hasn’t scored one since. For a talent like Godwin, that’s a huge anomaly, and that scoreless streak is going to have to end sooner or later. So what better time than against the division-rival Atlanta Falcons in a must-win game for a foothold on the NFC South? Godwin has been phenomenal all year, and this is the last piece of the puzzle. – River Wells, Bucs Wire
Lions at Ravens: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lions: Lions OVER 9.5 points scored in the first half
The Lions have been a prolific scoring team in the first half all season. They failed to top the 9.5-point line just once, back in Week 1 in Kansas City. No team scores more in the first quarter than Detroit, averaging 8.0 points per game in the opening quarter. Baltimore’s defense is the best first-quarter scoring D in the league, but they’ve faced four of the bottom 10 offensive scoring teams in their first six games. – Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire
Ravens: Mark Andrews OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Lions are 1st in total defense, 1st in rushing defense, and 18th in the NFL against the pass. DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson is out, and DB Brian Branch will return to the lineup, but Detroit can be susceptible to the pass. The Lions rank second in most yards allowed to the tight end position this season, and they’ll have to put Branch on Ravens TE Mark Andrews, or risk allowing 100-plus yards receiving. Andrews has been the hot player over the past few weeks, and he goes over 54.5 yards receiving. – Glenn Erby, Ravens Wire
Steelers at Rams: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Steelers: Steelers OVER 19.5 points (-150)
Maybe we are being a little generous here but after having a week off and getting healthy, we like the Steelers to hit the over this week on points. The offense has been stuck in neutral all season but last season, after the bye, the team found a way to get back to the basics, run the football and make like easier for quarterback Kenny Pickett. We are banking on a return to form and while the Steelers might not with this game, we feel comfortable they will top 20 points in what could be a back-and-forth game. – Curt Popejoy, Steelers Wire
Rams: Rams to win + UNDER 53.5 total points (+110)
The Rams are -165 to win the game straight-up on the money line, so you’re getting a much better value with this bet by parlaying it with an alternate over/under at 53.5 points. Neither the Rams nor the Steelers have been consistent on offense, with Los Angeles failing to put together a complete performance in both halves all season. I still think the Rams beat the Steelers on Sunday but don’t expect this to be a high-scoring game. Pittsburgh has only scored more than 17 points twice and fewer than 10 points twice, as well. – Cameron DaSilva, Rams Wire
Cardinals at Seahawks: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Cardinals: Cardinals 1st-half moneyline (+210)
The Cardinals have won the first-half moneyline in four of their six games this season and 2-1 on the road. It is the second half that has caused them problems, as they have been outscored 98-30 after halftime. Seattle is 2-3 with the first-half moneyline. – Jess Root, Cards Wire
Seahawks: Tyler Lockett anytime TD (+100)
Tyler Lockett is as consistent as they come, but he does seem to bring his game to another level against Arizona. In 16 career meetings with the Cardinals he’s posted 63 catches, 883 yards and scored eight touchdowns. Getting into the end zone again this week is a good bet. – Tim Weaver, Seahawks Wire
Packers at Broncos: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Packers: Jordan Love OVER 0.5 interceptions (-190)
We’ll take the high percentage bet this week. Love has thrown an interception in three straight games, while the Broncos defense – despite struggling against the pass overall – has an interception in three straight games. Love is increasingly forcing the ball in difficult passing situations. Vance Joseph is an experienced playcaller on defense and the Broncos have the players in the secondary to take the ball away if the Packers quarterback keeps making mistakes. Even if Love plays well on Sunday, at least one turnover can be expected. – Zach Kruse, Packers Wire
Broncos: Russell Wilson UNDER 215.5 passing yards (-115)
Green Bay is allowing an average of 194 passing yards per game this season and Russell Wilson has thrown for fewer than 215 yards in three of his six games this year, including each of the last two weeks. The Packers also have a struggling run defense, so the Broncos will probably lean on Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin this week. – Jon Heath, Broncos Wire
Chargers at Chiefs: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Chargers: Chargers +5.5 (-110)
The Chargers might be 2-3, but all of their losses have been decided by one score. Against the Chiefs last season, both of Los Angeles’ losses came by a field goal. Expect this game to be close. Don’t be surprised if the Bolts have a lead for an extended period of time, Kansas City retakes it and Justin Herbert is given the opportunity to either tie or win the game on the final drive, only for the Chargers to do what they do best by “Chargering.” – Gavino Borquez, Chargers Wire
Chiefs: Jerick McKinnon anytime TD + Chiefs win (+230)
Kansas City’s hot streak isn’t likely to end against the Chargers in Week 7, and the Chiefs’ reliance on RB Jerick McKinnon for consistent yardage on offense should continue unabated until Patrick Mahomes fully returns to MVP form. McKinnon has proven to be one of Mahomes’ favorite targets, particularly in the red zone, and his speed out of the backfield makes him a threat to score from anywhere on the field. Though there is always a chance that a bet won’t hit, the return on this parlay should be an enticing option for fans wagering on Kansas City’s Week 7 tilt. – John Dillon, Chiefs Wire
Dolphins at Eagles: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Dolphins: Dolphins +6.5 AND over 45.5 total points (+105)
Miami has looked virtually unstoppable outside of their one loss against the Buffalo Bills, but the same could be said about Philadelphia, who lost their first game of the season last week against the New York Jets. Both offenses have the potential to score every time they step on the field with their talented wide receiver duos of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see both teams score in the high 20s or 30s. With the talent on both sides, the contest doesn’t feel like a blowout either way, so that spread should cover the expected outcomes. – Mike Masala, Dolphins Wire
Eagles: Jalen Hurts over 250.5 yards passing (-115)
Miami is 9th in total defense, 2nd in rushing defense and 20th against the pass. With Xavien Howard likely out, and Jalen Ramsey about a week or two away from returning, Philadelphia will look to air it out, looking to go blow for blow with the Dolphins’ explosive offense. A.J. Brown has had four straight games with 125+ yards receiving, while DeVonta Smith is always good to bounce back after any difficult start. The Eagles and Miami Dolphins are leaning toward a shootout, and that means Jalen Hurts goes over 251-plus yards passing. – Glenn Erby, Eagles Wire
49ers at Vikings: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
49ers: 49ers to win + OVER 41.5 total points (+125)
San Francisco is a little banged up, but it looks like WR Deebo Samuel, RB Christian McCaffrey and LT Trent Williams could all be available. The 49ers will be aiming to bounce back from their first loss of the year and they should be able to knock off a not-so-good Vikings team without Justin Jefferson. We’re gonna skip the point spread with all the question marks for their health on offense, but a 24-20 type game feels right and hits that over 41.5. Tying the two together gets us +125 — which means a $100 bet wins $125. We’ll feel even better about it if Samuel, McCaffrey and Williams all play. – Kyle Madson, Niners Wire
Vikings: Vikings OVER 18.5 total points (-110)
The Vikings have started 2-4 this season with their two worst performances arguably being their two wins this season. In those wins, the Vikings scored 21 and 19 points. In their four losses, the Vikings have failed to cross 18.5 points only once and that was week one against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Being that it was in week one, that is more of an anomaly than if it occurred last week. The 49ers have a formidable defense, but Kirk Cousins is at his best when he is playing from behind, as his aggressiveness is at its peak. – Tyler Forness, Vikings Wire
