NFL Week 6 best bets: One wager to make for every team (including the Bills)
Our NFL Wire editors are back this week with best bets for every team in Week 6. Once again, our picks range from player props to touchdown scorers to over/unders and spreads, so there are a wide variety of wagers to make this week.
The fun kicks off on Thursday night with Broncos-Chiefs and things wrap up on Monday night when the Cowboys and Chargers square off in prime time.
Below are our best bets of Week 6, with odds courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted:
Broncos at Chiefs: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Broncos: RB Jaleel McLaughlin anytime touchdown (+215, DraftKings)
McLaughin has emerged as a key part of the offense in recent weeks, totaling a combined 193 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in Denver’s last two games. Even if Javonte Williams (quad) is cleared for TNF, McLaughlin will get his share of snaps. The rookie running back is looking to go three games in a row with a touchdown. – Jon Heath, Broncos Wire
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes OVER 266.5 yards (-120)
Mahomes hasn’t had a truly spectacular performance yet in 2023, but seems poised to do something special against the Denver Broncos in Week 6. The reigning MVP has a way of saving his best football for primetime, and against a divisional rival, Mahomes should be a lock to go over 267 yards to convert this bet. – John Dillon, Chiefs Wire
Ravens at Titans: Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Ravens: Mark Andrews OVER 52.5 yards (-110)
The talented TE has 20 catches for 225 yards and three touchdowns since returning to the lineup. Andrews has been the most consistent pass catcher for Lamar Jackson outside of rookie WR Zay Flowers. In his past three games, Andrews has 15 receptions on 20 targets, for 180 yards, while Tennessee owns the 23rd-ranked passing defense in the NFL (240.2 yards allowed per game). – Glenn Erby, Ravens Wire
Titans: UNDER 41.5 total points (-110)
The Titans and Ravens have hit the over just once each in five games, per Team Rankings, and both of the 2023 games in London between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons and Jaguars and Buffalo Bills hit the under.
Baltimore is averaging 21.8 points per contest to Tennessee’s 17.6, and the Titans are giving up 18.6 per game to the Ravens’ 15. Adding to that, teams tend to be sluggish offensively when playing overseas. – Mike Moraitis, Titans Wire
Commanders at Falcons: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Commanders: TE Logan Thomas OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-110)
In four games this season, Thomas has gone over this number. In the one game he didn’t, he was knocked out just before halftime after catching a touchdown. Thomas received 11 targets last week. He is one of Sam Howell’s most trusted receivers and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy loves featuring the tight end. Thomas hitting the over feels like a safe bet for Week 6. – Bryan Manning, Commanders Wire
Falcons: RB Bijan Robinson OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-115)
Even though Robinson was somewhat contained in Week 5, he has been a consistent threat catching the ball out of the backfield. Robinson has finished with at least 27 receiving yards in four out of five games this season. Considering how much QB Desmond Ridder targets the rookie running back, I like Robinson to go over 24.5 receiving yards against the Commanders in Week 6. – Matt Urben, Falcons Wire
Vikings at Bears: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Vikings: Jordan Addison OVER 54.5 receiving yards
With no Justin Jefferson being placed on injured reserve, Jordan Addison is the new de facto WR1 for the Vikings. As the third wide receiver and fourth option in this offense over his first five games, Addison has catches in four games and cleared 54.5 receiving yards in three of those. He also has touchdowns in those three games as well, so an anytime touchdown prop would be a good bet as well. Addison could have an explosive game against a Bears defense that has struggled against the pass. – Tyler Forness, Vikings Wire
Bears: Justin Fields OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (+185)
Fields has turned a corner in the passing game over the last couple of weeks, and there’s no reason that shouldn’t continue against a suspect Vikings defense. Fields has thrown for eight touchdowns in the last two games, putting together back-to-back four-touchdown outings. He’s tied for the second-most passing touchdowns in the NFL. I’m penciling him in for at least two against Minnesota. – Alyssa Barbieri, Bears Wire
Seahawks at Bengals: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Seahawks: Seahawks +2.5 (-105)
A healthy Joe Burrow makes this Bengals team tough to beat, especially at home. In a vacuum, they should probably win this matchup. However, the context is critical. For one thing, Seattle is coming off an early bye week and should be more fresh than Cincinnati. More importantly, their pass rush absolutely went off in their last two games. Heading into last week, the Seahawks led the league in total pressures and sacks. Meanwhile, the Bengals offensive line is not 100% and hasn’t performed all that well this season. If Seattle’s new-look front seven can win consistently at the line of scrimmage an upset is definitely not out of the question. – Tim Weaver, Seahawks Wire
Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase OVER 84.5 receiving yards
Last week, Ja’Marr Chase caught a franchise-record 15 passes for 192 yards and three touchdowns. This week, Tee Higgins might just be on the field to draw the defense’s attention, too. Even if Higgins isn’t out there, Joe Burrow is now as healthy as we’ve seen him all season. The Seahawks defense tasked with stopping Chase will do so after traveling across the country, coughs up an average of 27.8 points per game and inexplicably gave Chase some bulletin board material before the matchup. – Chris Roling, Bengals Wire
49ers at Browns: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
49ers: 49ers -4.5 in 1st half (-105)
The 49ers boast one of the best first-half offenses in the NFL, averaging 19.2 points per game in the first half alone this season – second-best in football. Their first-half defense has been great, too, giving up only 9.2 points per game in the first 30 minutes, which is 11th-best. If Deshaun Watson doesn’t play, this line looks even better because it’ll take P.J. Walker a while to get acclimated. This game could end up being a blowout whether Watson plays or not. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
Browns: David Njoku anytime touchdown (+475)
The Browns are likely to start P.J. Walker this week, adn the only beneficiary from Dorian Thompson-Robinson a week ago was tight end David Njoku. Someone is once again going to have to step up for the Browns, and that looks to be Njoku once again as the Browns will not be looking to open up and take shots down the field. He has not found the endzone yet this season, but by sheer volume, Njoku will will himself into the endzone in this game. – Cory Kinnan, Browns Wire
Panthers at Dolphins: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Panthers: Bryce Young UNDER 0.5 interceptions thrown (+130)
Not only have the Panthers recently tried to simplify the offense for him, but Young is coming off a two-pick performance against the Detroit Lions. So, hoping that he won’t throw at least another this Sunday is a bit of risky business. The rookie, however, finished that Week 5 loss with a strong and accurate fourth quarter, completing nine of his 12 throws for 101 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Plus, he’s set to face a pass defense that’s allowed the sixth-highest completion percentage (71.2) and has recorded just two interceptions over five games. – Anthony Rizzuti, Panthers Wire
Dolphins: Adam Thielen OVER 56.5 receiving yards (-115)
While Vic Fangio’s defensive unit has had some strong performances this year, they’re still giving up yardage to opposing team’s top options. Last week, they allowed 86 yards to Darren Waller. The week prior it was 120 yards to Stefon Diggs. In the first three games, Keenan Allen went for 76, Devante Parker had 57 and Coutland Sutton recorded 91.
As for Thielen, he’s gone over 56.5 in his last three appearances, recording 107 in Week 5, 76 in Week 4 and 145 in Week 3.
Miami may keep the Panthers out of the end zone, but they’ll allow gains with some regularity.
Colts at Jaguars: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Colts: Josh Downs OVER 42.5 receiving yards (-120)
The rookie has essentially taken over the No. 2 wide receiver role through the first month of the season. He ranks second on the team in targets (33), receptions (23) and receiving yards (255) despite running the third-most routes and playing the third-most snaps among Colts wide receivers. He’s also coming off a breakout performance of six receptions for 97 yards in Week 5. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards (927) to the position through five games. Even with Gardner Minshew under center, Downs should be heavily involved as a quick-winning slot option, and he has a good chance of surpassing this line. – Kevin Hickey, Colts Wire
Jaguars: Calvin Ridley OVER 59.5 receiving yards (-115)
Ridley cooked the Colts secondary for 92 receiving yards before halftime in a Week 1 win for the Jaguars. While he slowed down in the weeks after that hot start, the Ridley-Trevor Lawrence connection was back on track last week when he racked up 122 yards against the Bills. Unlike the first meeting, the Colts will have rookie cornerback JuJu Brents in the secondary. Is that enough to keep Ridley under 60 yards on Sunday? Probably not. – Adam Stites, Jaguars Wire
Saints at Texans: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Saints: C.J. Stroud OVER 0.5 interceptions (+120)
Stroud hasn’t thrown an interception through five games, but defenders have dropped three picks and he’s thrown plenty of dangerous passes. The Saints defense has picked off seven interceptions with seven different defenders. This could be the week Stroud’s streak of 186 passes without an interception comes to an end. – John Sigler, Saints Wire
Texans: Derek Carr OVER 215.5 yards (-120)
Carr has not thrown for over 200 yards passing in the last three games. There is no reason to think this goes on for four games. – Mark Lane, Texans Wire
Patriots at Raiders: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Patriots: UNDER 41.5 total points (-110)
There should be no expectations of an offensive spectacle in a game featuring two of the worst scoring offenses in the NFL. If you know the story of “The Tortoise and the Hare”, this contest will play out more like a tortoise racing another tortoise. New England’s offense stinks, and quarterback Mac Jones is handing out turnovers like free mall food samples. Things haven’t been much better in Las Vegas, even though their offense is more talented on paper. – Jordy McElroy, Patriots Wire
Raiders: Raiders UNDER 22.5 points (-110)
The Raiders have not scored more than 18 points in any game this season. The offense does not create big plays through the air and running game has yet to fully get on track. Will this be the week that the offense finally takes off? Probably not as Bill Belichick knows the offense of the Raiders better than anyone else. Expect the Raiders to get to their usual 17 points, but under 22.5 points. – Marcus Mosher, Raiders Wire
Cardinals at Rams: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Cardinals: Cooper Kupp OVER 85.5 receiving yards (-115)
In his first game back from injured reserve, Kupp had 118 yards. The Cardinals allowed 148 to San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk and 192 to Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase. Safety Budda Baker is still on injured reserve and Arizona’s next-best safety and top slot defender, Jalen Thompson, has an ailing hamstring. This seems like the easiest money in the world right now. – Jess Root, Cards Wire
Rams: Cooper Kupp longest reception OVER 24.5 yards (-120)
In six of his 11 career games against the Cardinals, Kupp has had a reception of at least 25 yards, with another game where he had a 24-yard catch against them. He often finds ways to make big plays against this team, and he’s incredibly consistent against them, too. In nine of 11 contests against Arizona, Kupp has had at least four catches and 50 yards. The only exceptions were the two games last year, one of which he got hurt in. His hamstring injury isn’t a concern after he looked like himself in his 2023 debut a week ago, a game in which he caught a 39-yarder from Matthew Stafford. Take the over here. – Cameron DaSilva, Rams Wire
Eagles at Jets: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Eagles: D’Andre Swift OVER 64.5 rushing yards (-115)
D’Andre Swift slid to 4th on the NFL’s rushing yards list after De’Von Achane and Zach Moss had monster games in Week 5. Swift still has 434 yards despite only playing 18 snaps and getting one carry in the season opener. The Eagles are running teams out of the building, and Swift will face a Jets defense that’s ranked 22nd in total defense (352 YPG), and 29th in rushing defense, giving up 146.2 yards per game on the ground. With Sauce Gardner and a solid secondary looking to contain A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, Swift carries the load on Sunday. – Glenn Erby, Eagles Wire
Jets: Breece Hall OVER 54.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Jets finally let Breece Hall loose last week against the Broncos to the tune of 177 yards on 22 attempts. Obviously the Eagles are a much better defense than the Broncos, but just the volume Hall should get should be enough to surpass 55 yards on the ground. All it takes is one big run, which Hall is more than capable of making. Have faith in Breece. – Billy Riccette, Jets Wire
Lions at Buccaneers: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lions: Detroit OVER 23.5 points (-115)
The Lions rank 6th in scoring at 29.6 points per game. Detroit has proven it can score in a variety of ways with a diverse offensive attack and multiple effective weapons. Tampa Bay’s defense allows just 17 points per game, but they surrendered 25 to the only multidimensional offense they faced, the Eagles. The Lions defense and special teams are also capable of posting a touchdown in this one. – Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire
Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (+140)
Yes, quarterback Baker Mayfield has been playing well this year, but this is also in regard to the more unfortunate part of Tampa Bay’s offense — the lack of run game. The Bucs haven’t been able to get anything going on the ground, with just one of their touchdowns coming on the ground all year. This might be a good bet no matter what way you swing it, as the Bucs will either beat the Lions behind their sixth-best passing offense by dropback EPA or will rack up garbage time points when the show is already over. – River Wells, Bucs Wire
Giants at Bills: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Giants: Bills -14.5 (-110)
The Bills are coming off an ugly loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London and are bound to be angry. They’ll look to take that on out on their former friends, general manager Joe Schoen and head Brian Daboll on Sunday and will face little resistance. The Giants will likely be without QB Daniel Jones, RB Saquon Barkley and LT Andrew Thomas, making an already bad offense that much worse. It’ll be another prime-time blowout and some potentially easy money. – Dan Benton, Giants Wire
Bills: James Cook OVER 57.5 rushing yards (-110)
The expectation for many is a big day for the Bills. Just look at that spread. After their London loss, Buffalo will want to bounce back. They have a knack for doing just that and over the past few years, the Bills have had more blowout wins than close ones. In their Week 5 loss to the Jags, James Cook had negative four yards rushing. The Giants do have some solid defensive line pieces, but Buffalo will want to sport a more balanced offense against New York. Plus, they could be just draining the clock late. Garbage yards make the over on Cook’s line look good. – Nick Wojton, Bills Wire
Cowboys at Chargers: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Cowboys: RB Tony Pollard OVER 14.5 Longest Rush (-125)
Brandon Staley’s defense may not be what anyone envisioned when the season started, but honestly neither has Dallas’ rushing attack. The Chargers have given up four runs in five games that are longer than 14 yards, two to Alexander Mattison and one each to Tennessee’s Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears. Pollard however has four of his own in five contests, and he’s been able to do so once against every defense save for the vaunted 49ers group. He reaches it again against L.A. – K.D. Drummond, Cowboys Wire
Chargers: RB Austin Ekeler OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
After missing the Chargers’ last three games with an ankle sprain, Ekeler said that there is a 99% chance that he plays on Monday night. With Ekeler suiting up, expect Los Angeles to establish an efficient rushing attack again facing a Cowboys defense that’s 21st in the league, allowing an average of 123.4 rush yards per game. In Week 1 against the Dolphins, Ekeler rushed 17 times for 114 yards. – Gavino Borquez, Chargers Wire
