NFL Week 14 best bets: One wager to make for every team
The playoff races in the NFC and AFC are both coming down to the wire, which means there’s plenty of intrigue in many of the Week 14 matchups around the NFL. There are also some, uh, not-so-fun games (we’re looking at you, Patriots-Steelers), but Cowboys-Eagles and Chiefs-Bills are two of the biggest games everyone will be watching.
With this being the last week for byes, we have almost a full slate of games, with only the Cardinals and Commanders being off in Week 14. That gives us plenty of betting opportunities.
We’ve picked one bet to make for every team in action this week, including a no-touchdown wager on Patriots-Steelers at +1000 ($100 bet wins $1,000).
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.
Note: The Cardinals and Commanders are on a bye this week.
Buccaneers at Falcons: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Buccaneers: Chris Godwin OVER 47.5 receiving yards (-110)
There’s been a lot of talk over the week about WR Chris Godwin’s potential misusage in the offense and his recent lack of targets. But on top of the team likely taking these criticisms to heart, Godwin historically plays very well against the Atlanta Falcons — he’s put up 55 yards or more against them in his last six games against Atlanta. – River Wells, Bucs Wire
Falcons: Desmond Ridder OVER 210.5 total passing + rushing yards (-115)
Ridder’s production has been all over the map this season, but he’s played well in his two previous starts against the Buccaneers. Back in Week 7, Ridder finished the game with 250 passing yards and another 38 rushing yards in a 16-13 win. Look for the second-year Falcons QB to top 210.5 combined rushing and passing yards in Week 14. – Matt Urben, Falcons Wire
Lions at Bears: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lions: Jared Goff UNDER 243.5 passing yards (-115)
A couple of reasons to like the under on Goff’s passing yards. First, the Bears defense is refreshed as the team comes off a bye. It’s a defense that held Goff to 236 yards in the first meeting between the two teams in Week 11. The Bears pass defense has allowed more than 243 passing yards just once since Week 5, too. Then there’s the weather. The forecast is for windy conditions in the Windy City, conditions under which Goff has struggled throughout his career. Expect the Lions to lean on the run game to win the game, which puts Goff’s passing stats on the backburner. – Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire
Bears: Justin Fields OVER 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
Fields has been hugely successful on the ground against the Lions, and there’s no reason to expect that to change anytime soon. Fields has rushed for 100-plus yards in three consecutive games against the Lions, including a 104-yard outing in their Week 11 meeting. While Fields should have plenty of opportunities in the vertical passing game, look for Luke Getsy to utilize his athleticism with more designed QB runs, which should also help open things up downfield. – Alyssa Barbieri, Bears Wire
Colts at Bengals: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Colts: Zack Moss UNDER 70.5 rushing yards (-115)
There’s no denying how appreciative the Colts should be that Moss is able to step in as the starter with Jonathan Taylor (thumb) on the mend. However, this isn’t a matchup that’s lining up to be fruitful for offensive production. Even though he just got the starting role back last week, Moss hasn’t his 70 rushing yards in a game since Week 5. Meanwhile, the Bengals have allowed just four running backs to surpass that mark this season, and the weather forecast looks to be cold and rainy. That means stacking the box and forcing Gardner Minshew to beat them through the air. Maybe Moss is due, and he’s proven to show out enough at times. But it seems like a tough bet to make considering all the factors. – Kevin Hickey, Colts Wire
Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase OVER 66.5 receiving yards (-115)
Never bet against Ja’Marr Chase. He faced a similar line last week and ended with 149 yards and a score on 11 catches. He’s surpassed this number in eight of his last 10 outings and that doesn’t figure to change with Tee Higgins back on the field drawing the attention of defenses. Jake Browning’s outburst after an overhaul of the offense means moving Chase around more in motion and to the slot to create mismatches. Plus, the Colts offer up a middle-of-the-pack defense against the pass and the mid-week injury report featured a few notable defenders.– Chris Roling, Bengals Wire
Jaguars at Browns: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Jaguars: Jaguars over 0.5 first-quarter points (-105)
Oddsmakers haven’t made many props available with Trevor Lawrence’s status in doubt. Regardless if it’s Lawrence or C.J. Beathard, expect the Jaguars to get on the scoreboard in the first 15 minutes. Jacksonville has been successful on its first offensive drive more often than not and went more than 50 yards to start the game in the last two weeks. Cleveland’s a much tougher test, but the Browns defense has also allowed nine first quarter touchdowns, more than any other quarter. I’d roll the dice on the Jaguars moving the ball early, even if just into field goal range. – Adam Stites, Jaguars Wire
Browns: RB Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown (+120)
While Kareem Hunt has not found the endzone in his last two contests, he has been a short-yardage battering ram for the Cleveland offense when they get down to the goal line. As the Browns still seek to find any sort of consistency through the air, their best bet of getting into the endzone when they get into position to score is to hand it to the veteran running back who has already scored six touchdowns on the season despite not joining the team until Week 3. If the Browns work their way into scoring position, expect to see Hunt in the endzone. – Cory Kinnan, Browns Wire
Panthers at Saints: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Panthers: DJ Chark OVER 2.5 receptions (+130)
Chark recorded three catches and four targets in both Week 12 and Week 13. One of those six was a 30-yard reception this past Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, his longest connection of the season with rookie quarterback Bryce Young. With the Panthers officially out of playoff contention and the organization desperate for some progress from its No. 1 overall pick, perhaps Young lets it hang out and takes a few more shots downfield at his speediest weapon. – Anthony Rizzuti, Panthers Wire
Saints: Saints to win by 1-6 points (+290)
These games in the NFC South are always close, and the Panthers only lost by a field goal in their last meeting with New Orleans. The Saints offense has been up-and-down in recent weeks and their defense has just been bad, especially against the run, where Carolina has figured out some things with underrated running back Chuba Hubbard. The Saints should win and end their three-game losing skid, but look for the Panthers to keep it uncomfortably close for the black and gold. – John Sigler, Saints Wire
Texans at Jets: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Texans: Nico Collins to score and Texans to win (+140)
Collins will be C.J. Stroud’s favorite target moving forward with Tank Dell out, and Dalton Schultz’s status remains up in the air. The odds may not come with a ton of upside here, needing two things to happen, but Collins has scored in three of his last four games and has six touchdowns on the season. The Texans should beat the struggling Jets, too. One touchdown could be enough to get the job done. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
Jets: Garrett Wilson anytime touchdown (+155)
Zach Wilson is back as the starter so maybe he’ll at least see Garrett Wilson when he gets open. Obviously, there isn’t much faith at all in really any of the quarterbacks but maybe this version of Zach Wilson will make something happen, even if he has to force-feed Garrett Wilson the football. The Jets need some kind of spark. Hard to put any stock in the offense at all, but we’ll take a gamble here with Garrett finding the end zone. – Billy Riccette, Jets Wire
Rams at Ravens: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Rams: Matthew Stafford OVER 31.5 pass attempts (-125)
The one concern with this bet is the weather. The forecast shows rain in Baltimore on Sunday, but that may not limit the number of times Stafford throws the ball. Instead, it could lead to more short, quick passes to get easier completions. That’s something the Rams have been doing in recent weeks regardless, getting the ball out of his hand quickly to neutralize the opposing pass rush. It’s surprising to see this number set so low because Stafford has had at least 33 attempts in seven of the 10 complete games he’s played this season, with one other game where he had 31 attempts. He may only be completing 60.7% of his passes, but he’s still throwing the ball a ton and should continue to do so on Sunday if the Rams fall behind.
Ravens: Lamar Jackson OVER 47.5 yards rushing (-115)
The Rams have a middle-of-the-pack defense, and with Baltimore using a running back-by-committee approach, Lamar Jackson is the safest pick for rushing yards by a Raven, and we believe he’s the safest bet to log 47.5+ yards against a Rams defensive front that will apply pressure up the middle and off the edge. Jackson has 575 rushing yards on the season, he’s just 15 shy of overtaking Gus Edwards (590) for the team lead. – Glenn Erby, Ravens Wire
Vikings at Raiders: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Vikings: Jordan Addison OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-115)
Yes, the Vikings are returning Justin Jefferson this week and will likely try to get him involved in the offense early and often. What can’t be forgotten is that him being on the field will make a positive impact for the receivers around him. One of those is rookie Jordan Addison who has only had two games this season under 34.5 receiving yards: one being an anomaly zero catch game against the Carolina Panthers and the other being at the Chicago Bears where they played without Jefferson for the first time and the offense looked anemic. With a healthy Jefferson, Addison will see less attention and in turn, be in better position to make plays. – Tyler Forness, Vikings Wire
Raiders: Raiders UNDER 20.5 total points (-115)
The Raiders have scored over 18 points in just two games this season. They are the NFL’s least explosive offense and will now face the blitz-crazy Vikings on Sunday. With rookie QB Aidan O’Connell under center, this is setting up to be a nightmare game for the offense. The Raiders have not handled the blitz well this season and it’s hard to envision them putting together a bunch of drives. Take the UNDER 20.5 points as the Raiders will struggle to score multiple touchdowns in Week 14. – Marcus Mosher, Raiders Wire
Seahawks at 49ers: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Seahawks: Christian McCaffrey OVER 79.5 rushing yards (-115)
Since he was traded to San Francisco in the middle of last season, McCaffrey has faced these Seahawks three times and he has dominated every meeting. McCaffrey has totaled 108, 119 and 119 rushing yards in those games. Seattle has also been atrocious at tackling in the last several games, which makes this prop pretty close to a slam dunk. – Tim Weaver, Seahawks Wire
49ers: Game total over 46.5 (-110)
The 49ers are coming off a big emotional road win over the Eagles last week, which means they’re ripe for a letdown. There’s a substantial talent gap here so San Francisco should gwt a win, but with a potentially sluggish start and Seattle coming off the extra rest of a Thursday game, San Francisco’s defense could have its hands full after dominating in Seattle two weeks ago. We’ll avoid the spread, and there’s no value on the money line, so we’ll take the 49ers 30-20 and ride the over. – Kyle Madson, Niners Wire
Bills at Chiefs: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Bills: Bills to win (+105)
The Bills have had a heck of a week… considering it was their bye? Even crazier. After falling to a .500 record at 6-6 following their overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles prior to the weekend off, Buffalo is on the outside looking in of the AFC playoff picture. Then there was Von Miller’s arrest and a bit of backlash after the team said he is available to play against the Chiefs. Let’s not stop there, a slam piece released did not paint Sean McDermott in the best light, either. All that said, McDermott’s teams have never lost coming off a bye and the coach has done his best work when he can build an “us against the world” approach. He’s got that this week, even if it’s not the cleanest of ways. – Nick Wojton, Bills Wire
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes OVER 0.5 interceptions thrown (+100)
Patrick Mahomes is in a bit of a funk, and against a Buffalo Bills team that is chomping at the bit to knock the Kansas City Chiefs down a peg, an interception from the reigning MVP seems inevitable. Isiah Pacheco’s status for the battle of AFC heavyweights is in question, and if Andy Reid is forced to start Clyde Edwards-Helaire in this game, Mahomes could be forced to throw the ball more than he usually does. While it pains this Chiefs writer to pick this wager, bettors could easily double their money on one errant throw from a quarterback who has had a tough time finding his rhythm in recent weeks. – John Dillon, Chiefs Wire
Broncos at Chargers: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Broncos: Denver to win (+125)
The Broncos are coming off a gut-wrenching 22-17 loss to the Texans, a game in which they had an opportunity to win right at the end before a turnover. Before that, Denver had won five in a row. The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off an ugly 6-0 win over the Patriots. Before that, Los Angeles had lost three in a row. The Broncos are desperate for a bounce-back win to get into the playoff mix, and despite Sunday’s win, the Chargers look like a mess. – Jon Heath, Broncos Wire
Chargers: Justin Herbert OVER 17.5 rushing yards (-120)
Herbert has led the Chargers in rushing in two of the past three games (73 yards in Week 11 and 47 yards in Week 12). Yes, you read that correctly. While Los Angeles has still continued to establish a ground game, Herbert has been the one to help the team’s rushing average as sad as that sounds. Nonetheless, the Broncos are allowing 149.7 rushing yards per game, which is the NFL’s worst in that category. – Gavino Borquez, Chargers Wire
Eagles at Cowboys: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Eagles: D’Andre Swift OVER 50.5 rushing yards (-110)
D’Andre Swift has posted the 4th-most rushing yards (783) in the NFL, behind Christian McCaffrey (1,032), Derrick Henry (841), and Raheem Mostert (828). The former University of Georgia star is 9 yards shy of reaching his second career year with 1,000+ scrimmage yards (1,069 with Detroit in 2021). After getting dominated up-front by San Francisco, Philadelphia will look to re-establish their physical running game by featuring Swift early and often. – Glenn Erby, Eagles Wire
Cowboys: Dak Prescott OVER 293.5 passing yards (-115)
The Eagles’ pass defense is atrocious, allowing the third-most passing yards per game in the NFL. Prescott took full advantage of their weak secondary in Week 9 when he threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles, and he should put up big numbers again on Sunday. He’s gone over 293.5 yards in each of his last 3 starts against the Eagles and in five of his last six games this season, with the only exception being Dallas’ blowout win over the Panthers. Unless the Eagles run all over the Cowboys and milk the clock, Prescott should have plenty of opportunities to rack up yards through the air. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
Titans at Dolphins: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Titans: Will Levis OVER 211.5 passing yards (-115)
Levis has only eclipsed this yardage total in three of the six games he’s played, but the Titans are going to be chasing points with how poorly their defense – and more specifically, the secondary – has played this season. Levis should be throwing early and often, which should lead to big passing numbers. – Mike Moraitis, Titans Wire
Dolphins: Will Levis OVER 0.5 INTs (-160)
For the year, the Dolphins haven’t been the best when it comes to forcing turnovers, but they’ve done pretty well recently. They’ve intercepted the opposing quarterback in five of their last six games with the lone game without one coming against Patrick Mahomes in Germany. While Levis hasn’t thrown an interception in three contests, he hasn’t played a defense or a secondary quite like Miami’s. – Mike Masala, Dolphins Wire
Packers at Giants: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Packers: WR Jayden Reed OVER 38.5 receiving yards (-120)
Christian Watson (hamstring) likely won’t play, ensuring Reed will be a top target for Jordan Love and the Packers passing game. The rookie slot receiver has a catch of at least 30 yards in five games this season and was on a run with 80 or more total yards in three of four games before a chest injury hit. Another week clear of the original injury, and with more opportunity coming up against the Giants up and down defense, Reed should be productive. – Zach Kruse, Packers Wire
Giants: WR Jalin Haytt OVER 28.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120)
Rookie wide receiver Jalin Hyatt had a breakout game in Week 12, recording five receptions for 109 yards which was the first 100-yard game of his career. He’s been largely inconsistent outside of that performance but can put up big numbers each week. With the rapport between him and quarterback Tommy DeVito improving, expect to see Hyatt more involved offensively. It will only take one deep pass to Hyatt to secure the bag for this wager, which honestly seems like a gimme since the Giants will have to throw and seem more comfortable pushing the ball down the field these days. – Dan Benton, Giants Wire
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]
