NFL Week 10 best bets: One wager to make for every team
The second half of the 2023 season officially begins this week with 14 games from Thursday to Monday night. It’s another week of what should be relatively close games, with only two contests featuring spreads larger than 6.5 points.
Things begin on Thursday night with the Panthers-Bears matchup and conclude on Monday night when the Broncos visit the Bills in an AFC showdown in Buffalo.
The NFL Wire editors have picked one bet to make on each team in the league this week. It’s a collection of player props, picks against the spread and more, giving bettors a nice variety of options in Week 10.
Note: The Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins and Eagles are on a bye this week.
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.
Panthers at Bears: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Panthers: Miles Sanders OVER 6.5 rushing attempts (+110)
Sanders, who signed a four-year, $25.4 million deal this past spring, has been one of the biggest downers in a season full of disappointments for the Panthers. But things could be looking up for the struggling back. Not only is he coming off his most encouraging performance of the campaign, where he rushed for 39 yards on six carries, but head coach Frank Reich said he’s looking for a more even share between Sanders and Chuba Hubbard in this one. With Hubbard having recorded 18 attempts in Week 9, Sanders is poised to cut into that workload and see at least one more tote than he did on Sunday. – Anthony Rizzuti, Panthers Wire
Bears: D’Onta Foreman OVER 59.5 rushing yards (-115)
With Khalil Herbert not expected to play Thursday night, Foreman will continue to be the workhorse back for Chicago. There’s added incentive this week for Foreman, who will be facing his former team. Last week, Foreman rushed for 83 yards against the Saints – and he’s averaged 73 rushing yards per game since stepping into a significant role four weeks ago. Now, the Bears will face a Panthers defense allowing 131.8 rushing yards per game, which gives Foreman and Chicago’s fourth-ranked run game an opportunity to shine. – Alyssa Barbieri, Bears Wire
Colts at Patriots: Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (Germany)
Colts: Michael Pittman Jr. OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-115)
There’s no telling how the overseas game will pan out, but one constant throughout the entire season for the Colts has been their leader in the wide receiver room. Only two players have at least eight receptions in two games this season. One is Tyreek Hill. The other is Pittman. He has reached 61.5 receiving yards in three out of his last four games while the Patriots have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wideouts over the last five weeks. With Josh Downs potentially missing this game due to a knee injury, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Pittman was the sole focus in the passing game. – Kevin Hickey, Colts Wire
Patriots: Patriots +1.5 (-110)
The Patriots are a weird team this year. There’s no consistency, talent is lacking and coaching has been questionable. This has been pegged as a potential win-or-get-fired game for coach Bill Belichick. It’s a WWE-like lead-up that’s going to end with the Patriots conjuring up the strength to body-slam the Colts in Germany. The defense is prone to giving up some big plays, but they have remained formidable, despite all of the losses due to injury.
Meanwhile, the offense will be facing a Colts defense allowing an average of 26.9 points per game, which is tied for the third-worst in the league. The smell of beer, brats and the Patriots winning a game they shouldn’t win is in the air for this one. Take the points.– Jordy McElroy, Patriots Wire
Texans at Bengals: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Texans: C.J. Stroud OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (+115)
Stroud had a stupendous outburst in Week 9 with five touchdown passes. However, the No. 2 overall pick has shown consistency. Through Stroud’s first eight games, the rookie has had five games with two or more touchdown passes. The Bengals defense is tied for the 10th-fewest opposing touchdowns with 10, yet six of them have come at home, ranking 13th-lowest in the league. – Mark Lane, Texans Wire
Bengals: Joe Burrow OVER 282.5 passing yards (-115)
Burrow has surpassed this number in three of his last four and two in a row – the two coming in heavyweight showdowns with the 49ers and Bills, both comfortable wins as he looks to be all the way back from the calf injury and playing behind the best line of his career. Houston is a bottom-10 team in average passing yards permitted (238.0) and listed a stunning 23 players on its first injury report of the week, including noteworthy pass-rushers and defensive backs such as Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley Jr. The fact C.J. Stroud looks so good could only further push this into shootout territory, easing Burrow past the number. – Chris Roling, Bengals Wire
Saints at Vikings: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Saints: Derek Carr OVER 241.5 passing yards (-115)
Carr has done a better job airing it out in recent weeks, and Minnesota relies on blitzing more than any other defense because they don’t have the talent in the secondary to slow down a competent passing attack. If Carr can quickly find his open receivers and get the ball out before the rush can get home, he should move the offense at will. He’s thrown for 300-plus yards in three of his last four games. – John Sigler, Saints Wire
Vikings: Vikings winning margin 1-6 (+340)
The Vikings have played in nine games this season and only one of them has been decided by more than one score, a 24-10 win over the Green Bay Packers. In fact, six of their nine games have been decided by six points or less. With these two balanced teams, the expectation should be one in the same. The Vikings are also on a roll, having won four in a row and the team is riding high with confidence. The odds are too good to pass up with this win total. – Tyler Forness, Vikings Wire
Packers at Steelers: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Packers: Jayden Reed OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-115)
Reed has produced 30 or more receiving yards in five of his first eight NFL games and at least three catches in six of his first eight. The Steelers, meanwhile, have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season. The Packers will like matchups for Reed in the slot against Keanu Neal or Chandon Sullivan. – Zach Kruse, Packers Wire
Steelers: Jaylen Warren OVER 21.5 receiving yards (-120)
As Warren takes over a larger role in the Steelers offense, his natural skills as a receiver pay benefits. Warren has topped 21.5 receiving yards in five of eight games this season this was before Warren was seeing a near-even split of touches with Najee Harris. The Packers have struggled to stop the run which should play into Warren being on the field more and he makes an excellent option when Pickett checks out of a run into a quick pass. – Curt Popejoy, Steelers Wire
Titans at Buccaneers: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Titans: Will Levis OVER 220.5 passing yards (-120)
Levis only has a two-game sample size to go by but he’s thrown for 238 yards or more in each contest. And Levis hasn’t just dinked and dunked his way there, either, as he’s ripped off 10 completions of 20-plus yards, tied for the second-most in the NFL in that span. Ahead of him in Week 10 is a juicy matchup against a Bucs team that sports the second-worst pass defense in the NFL and is coming off a game in which Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for a rookie-record 470 yards. – Mike Moraitis, Titans Wire
Buccaneers: Rachaad White OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-120)
Rachaad White has found new ground in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense, and you can reap the benefits. White has caught all of his last 20 targets and has had at least 45 receiving yards in his last three games. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales is starting to realize the value of hitting him in space, so expect him to shatter the over on this one just as he’s done in recent weeks. – River Wells, Bucs Wire
49ers at Jaguars: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
49ers: Jaguars +3 (-110)
Until the 49ers prove they can get a stop, it’s hard to bet on them beating anyone, much less a Jaguars club that has five consecutive wins and a quarterback in Trevor Lawrence who averages the second-lowest time to throw in the NFL, behind only Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa. Perhaps the addition of defensive end Chase Young combined with a bye week to make schematic tweaks will help cure a reeling San Francisco defense. Based on the last three games though it’s hard to bet on that. Not to mention left tackle Trent Williams looks like he’s going to miss Week 10, which makes it hard to believe the 49ers’ run game will get going, and we’ve seen the results of Brock Purdy trying to win a game without the rushing attack working. They’re not great, particularly late in games. Jags should win this one. – Kyle Madson, Niners Wire
Jaguars: Brock Purdy OVER 0.5 interceptions (-105)
There are only four starting quarterbacks who have been credited by PFF with a turnover-worthy play on more than 5% of their dropbacks. Two of them, Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder, combined for five picks against a Jaguars defense that leads the NFL in interceptions and takeaways. Now Jacksonville will face another turnover-prone quarterback who threw five interceptions in the 49ers’ last three games. If the Jaguars’ stout run defense can force Purdy to throw often Sunday, it’d be surprising if he went 60 minutes without a big mistake. – Adam Stites, Jaguars Wire
Browns at Ravens: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Browns: Deshaun Watson OVER 16.5 rushing yards (-115)
In the four games that Watson has played where he was on the field for at least 90% of the snaps, he rushed for the following yardage totals: 16, 22, 22 and 49 yards. He averaged more than four rushing attempts in those four games and he might have to use his legs even more on Sunday against the Ravens’ relentless pass rush. In his one matchup with Baltimore last season, Watson rushed for 22 yards on six carries. Take the over here now that Watson is healthy. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
Ravens: Mark Andrews OVER 45.5 receiving yards (-120)
Andrews has 48 catches for 621 yards and has scored nine touchdowns in 11 games versus the Browns in his career. In the Ravens 28-3 in Week 4, Andrews four catches for 80 yards and two more receiving touchdowns. Andrews’ nine career touchdowns against the Browns are the most by any Baltimore player ever against Cleveland, and he’s a must-play for any betting scenario. – Glenn Erby, Ravens Wire
Falcons at Cardinals: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Falcons: Atlanta wins by 1-6 points (+300)
After losing two straight games, Falcons head coach Arthur Smith might not survive a loss to the 1-8 Cardinals in Week 10. With the team’s back against the wall, I think Atlanta finds a way to win a close game over Arizona on Sunday. Three of the Falcons’ four wins this season have been by a margin of three points or less. Even with the Cardinals expected to start QB Kyler Murray, look for Atlanta to win by less than a touchdown in Week 10 – Matt Urben, Falcons Wire
Cardinals: Cardinals moneyline (+105)
As of this time, there were exactly zero player props for the Cardinals but there are a lot of reasons to like the Cardinals this week. James Conner returns to the lineup at running back. The Cardinals averaged 22 points per game in the five he played and 10.6 in the four he missed. Kyler Murray returns and, even with slightly better-than-average QB play (the Cardinals were getting bad QB play for the last four games), the offense can pick up, especially against a defense that has allowed 28 or more points in two straight weeks. – Jess Root, Cards Wire
Lions at Chargers: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Lions: Detroit OVER 25.5 points scored (-125)
The Lions have scored over 25 points just once in the last three games, but this is a much fresher, healthier Detroit offense. The entire starting offensive line is intact for the first time in weeks, and top RB David Montgomery returns after missing three games. Coming off a bye week, Lions OC Ben Johnson has had some time to tinker and get creative with the offensive attack. Given the Chargers own impressive offensive capabilities, Detroit head coach Dan Campbell figures to be aggressive in going after points, too. – Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire
Chargers: OVER 48.5 total points (-110)
As the Chargers look to get into the playoff mix, they will have a tough challenge against a Lions team that’s well-rested after their bye. Los Angeles is averaging 25.1 points per game while Detroit is averaging 25.0 PPG. Both teams are allowing a little over 20 PPG. After struggling on the offensive end last Monday against the Jets, look for QB Justin Herbert and company to have more success. Meanwhile, I expect OC Ben Johnson’s group to score a few touchdowns as well, especially since they will have RB David Montgomery back in the mix. – Gavino Borquez, Chargers Wire
Giants at Cowboys: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Giants: Saquon Barkley UNDER 62.5 rushing yards (-115)
There is little doubt the Giants are going to ride Saquon Barkley into the ground this weekend and if there were a viable rushing attempts bet, we’d suggest you take that. However, when it comes to actual production, it’s going to be an inch-by-inch game for Big Blue. The Cowboys know the Giants are going to have to rely on Barkley and they’re going to stack the box to stop him. With no fear that Tommy DeVito is going to beat them deep, it’ll be a relatively easy assignment for Dallas to limit Barkley on the ground. – Dan Benton, Giants Wire
Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb OVER 78.5 receiving yards (-115)
Is this a joke? Lamb has been on another plateau ever since he went semi-vocal about the passing offense not doing enough to take advantage of his immense talent. The Cowboys should have many, many opportunities on offense and Lamb will continue to be Dak Prescott’s featured target. He’s climbing, rapidly, up the NFL leaderboard in receiving yards and him not topping 100 yards on Sunday would be a shock to most. – K.D. Drummond, Cowboys Wire
Commanders at Seahawks: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Commanders: Sam Howell OVER 14.5 rushing yards (-115)
Sam Howell is second on the team in rushing yards. He’s not going to make a living running the football, but he is a very capable runner. On a third-and-23 last week, Howell had a 24-yard run. The Commanders do not call many designed QB runs, but Howell will scramble for a first down or two every week. Howell is averaging around 17 yards rushing per game. – Bryan Manning, Commanders Wire
Seahawks: Seahawks moneyline (-275)
There’s a reason why there are no player props for Seattle this week. The Seahawks’ offensive line is struggling awfully in pass protection, bringing the ceiling down for QB Geno Smith and everybody else on that side of the ball. Defensively they’re also going the wrong direction, having been gutted on the ground for 298 yards by Baltimore last week. However, under head coach Pete Carroll this team has usually responded well after a bad loss. If nothing else, we expect them to be fully motivated and bounce back with a much-needed win at home this week. – Tim Weaver, Seahawks Wire
Jets at Raiders: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Jets: Jets -1 (-105)
The Jets may not be firing on all cylinders right now on offense and thus probably won’t score a lot of points. But the defense has been fantastic all season once again and has shut down some of the best quarterbacks in the league this season, from Patrick Mahomes to Jalen Hurts to Josh Allen to Justin Herbert. It’s a good bet to think they’ll be just fine against a rookie quarterback in Aidan O’Connell. The Jets even being favored here on the road after last is interesting but this is almost a must-win for the Jets. – Billy Riccette, Jets Wire
Raiders: Raiders under 0.5 first-half touchdowns (+135)
The offense clicked in Week 9, scoring a season-high 30 points against the Giants. But this will be a much more difficult matchup. Look for the Jets to flex their muscles on defense and hold the Raiders to field goals in the first half. Aidan O’Connell could really struggle early in this game getting used to the speed of the Jets’ defense. – Marcus Mosher, Raiders Wire
Broncos at Bills: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Broncos: Denver to cover +7.5-point spread (-115)
The Broncos won consecutive games going into their bye week, including a 24-9 upset win over the Chiefs in Week 8. Four of Denver’s games before the bye were decided by a field goal or less and even if they lose in Buffalo, the Broncos should be able to keep the score close. – Jon Heath, Broncos Wire
Bills: Bills -4.5 in first half (+100)
The Bills have had quite the script for them in 2023. For a period, slow starts were a problem. Now they’re not. It’s leaning more towards Buffalo getting some points on the board early only for them to cough some up later on in games. All things considered, the Broncos will hang around in this one with their own play improving but early on expect a good opening drive, maybe even two from QB Josh Allen… then sit on the edge of your seat to see if the Bills can maintain it. – Nick Wojton, Bills Wire
