NFL Week 1 best bets: One wager to make for every team
After an offseason that felt like an eternity, regular-season football is officially back tonight with the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs kicking things off in the first game of the 2023 campaign. And with the return of NFL action comes the return of betting season.
With sports betting increasing in popularity each year, we’re getting in on the action by giving you the best bet to make on each team in Week 1. Our NFL Wire editors picked their favorite wager in every game, ranging from the spread to yardage totals to anytime touchdown scorers.
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM and they are last updated at the time of publication.
Lions at Chiefs: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Lions: David Montgomery over 52.5 rushing yards
Speedy, versatile rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs gets all the hype, but there is no question Montgomery is Detroit’s focal point for running the ball. Working behind one of the league’s best lines, Montgomery’s hard-charging style between the tackles is the ideal way for the Lions offense to attack a Chris Jones-less Chiefs defensive front. Montgomery could hit the “over” here by halftime. – Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire
Chiefs: Blake Bell anytime TD (+375)
Blake Bell is Kansas City’s go-to option on what would otherwise be quarterback sneaks, so it wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see him get a look on the goal line for a touchdown. Travis Kelce’s injury earlier this week could also force Bell into more action on offense, so his involvement in the passing game could be more substantial than some may expect. He has shown to have a solid rapport with Mahomes in the past, and is a steady if not spectacular presence for Kansas City. – John Dillon, Chiefs Wire
Panthers at Falcons: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Panthers: Adam Thielen to score Panthers’ 1st TD (+750)
Sure, the 33-year-old vet isn’t the same two-time Pro Bowler we saw between 2017 and 2018. In fact, he hasn’t even recorded a 1,000-yard receiving season since that time. But what he has done is score. Thielen has hit the end zone a total of 16 times over the past two years—with 10 scores in 2021 and six in 2022. Oh, and he has one this summer—having connected with rookie quarterback Bryce Young for a harmonious 16-yard touchdown in the preseason finale. Look for that chemistry to boil over into Week 1. – Anthony Rizzuti, Panthers Wire
Falcons: Bijan Robinson 1st TD scorer (+500)
Fans hoping to get the most bang for their buck should look to Falcons rookie Bijan Robinson. Atlanta’s starting running back has a +500 payout if he scores the game’s first touchdown. Robinson looked explosive in limited preseason action and the Falcons know an early touchdown from their first-round pick would get the crowd at Mercedes-Benz Stadium fired up. Considering Atlanta will be playing at home against Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young in his NFL debut, it wouldn’t surprise us to see Robinson find the end zone first on Sunday. – Matt Urben, Falcons Wire
Bengals at Browns: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Bengals: Bengals -2.5 (-110)
Joe Burrow has said this is the healthiest and/or best he’s felt going into Week 1 as a pro, which tracks. He’s a full-go, likely has the best offensive line he’s played behind to date and enjoys more coaching continuity at the big three spots than most in the league. Those things are huge in what could develop into a defense and running-based game too, with the majority of the defense that flustered Deshaun Watson returning. – Chris Roling, Bengals Wire
Browns: David Njoku over 34.5 receiving yards (-120)
The Browns invested a ton of their energy ramping up their offense to become more explosive in 2023. They went out and added Elijah Moore to pair with Amari Cooper, but there may be no bigger beneficiary of this philosophical offensive shift than tight end David Njoku. Not only is Njoku one of the most athletic tight ends in the NFL and one of the most explosive athletes on the offensive side of the football, but the Bengals are starting two new safeties this season. Look for the seam to be the best friend of quarterback Deshaun Watson as Njoku is poised to stack another step up off of his mini-breakout campaign a year ago. – Cory Kinnan, Browns Wire
Jaguars at Colts: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Jaguars: Christian Kirk over 50.5 receiving yards (-120)
So much of the talk surrounding the Jaguars offense has centered on the addition of Calvin Ridley, who looks primed to be the legitimate No. 1 wide receiver that Jacksonville didn’t have a year ago. The hype appears justified based on the way Ridley looked in camp and preseason, but it has also caused Kirk to fly under the radar quite a bit. Sure, the targets may get spread a little thin in 2023, but the Jaguars’ 2022 free agency prize finished his first season in Duval with 1,108 yards (65.2 per game).
Even if Ridley is the most-targeted Jaguars receiver this year, he’ll draw coverage outside and could free up Kirk to thrive in the slot and eat up open grass in a way he didn’t get to last season. In two games against the Colts in 2022, Kirk caught three touchdown passes. Expect him to be a significant part of the Jaguars’ game plan Sunday and finish with a receiving total closer to 100 yards than 50. – Adam Stites, Jaguars Wire
Colts: Anthony Richardson anytime touchdown (+130)
Let’s get this bread. The rookie quarterback is making the first regular-season start of his career, and it will be his 16th start since high school (including two preseason starts). As much promise and upside Richardson has shown thus far, there is still going to be a massive learning curve when it comes to the passing game. The windows in the red zone will be much tighter than he’s used to, which means we shouldn’t expect the Colts to score much through the air. That’s not as much of an issue when your quarterback is carved out of marble, runs a 4.43 and is built like a modern-day edge rusher. Considering the heavy read-option concepts the Colts will use early on, Richardson’s rushing ability will eventually take over. Combine that with the fact that Jonathan Taylor is out for at least the first four games, and it’s easy to see why Richardson should be considered the team’s true goal-line back.
Need numbers to back it up? Under Shane Steichen, Jalen Hurts recorded 26 carries and 11 touchdowns inside the 10-yard line in 2022—good for third and second-most among ALL players, respectively. Inside the five? Hurts ranked second in carries (20) and third in touchdowns (9). Simplifying the game and sticking to what Richardson does best is key early on, and Steichen knows they have an advantage with the rookie’s rushing ability. – Kevin Hickey, Colts Wire
Buccaneers at Vikings: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Buccaneers: Chris Godwin anytime TD scorer (+145)
Godwin and Baker Mayfield seem to have developed a nice rapport, if their preseason touchdown connection was anything to go by. Godwin is a reception machine who has shown to be particularly threatening in the red zone, and now that he’s healthy from his torn ACL he suffered two years ago, expect him to be a weapon. The Bucs have a lot of weapons, but Tampa Bay can always rely on Godwin for a score. – River Wells, Bucs Wire
Vikings: Alexander Mattison 1st TD scorer (+600)
After a season of living in 11 personnel, the Vikings will be shifting to running more 12 personnel in the 2023 season. The reason being that they want to establish the run more this season. They weren’t very good at running the football, including Dalvin Cook’s 64 carries for zero or negative yards. With Alexander Mattison as the starting running back, he won’t be the same home run hitter but the consistency in terms of positive yardage should improve. With the Vikings truly wanting to establish the running game, Mattison being the first touchdown scorer makes a lot of sense. – Tyler Forness, Vikings Wire
Titans at Saints: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Titans: Derrick Henry over 77.5 rushing yards (-120)
The Saints sported a bottom-10 run defense last season and have lost some key pieces on the interior. Meanwhile, the Titans’ offense still runs through Derrick Henry, who tallied 80 or more yards in 12 of the 16 games he played in last season. Henry’s volume alone should be more than enough to hit the over here, but he has the potential to have a monster day, also. – Mike Moraitis, Titans Wire
Saints: Over 22.5 points (-120)
The Titans fielded a pedestrian scoring defense last year, allowing 359 points in 17 games (21.1 per week) – and New Orleans has done nothing but surround QB Derek Carr with effective red-zone weapons like RB Jamaal Williams (17 touchdown runs last year), WR Michael Thomas (30 of his 35 career touchdowns scored inside the 20-yard line), and even TE Jimmy Graham (who caught 11 touchdown passes in his two years with the Chicago Bears). The Saints averaged 19.4 points per game last season and they’ve made a lot of moves to improve that number. – John Sigler, Saints Wire
49ers at Steelers: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
49ers: San Francisco over 20.5 points (-120)
Nick Bosa finally signed a long-term contract, but his late arrival means he’ll only get two practices in before the season opener. That throws a ton of props into question for this game thanks to the impact it might have on the game script. Instead of dealing with that, we’ll just avoid it and lean on the 49ers offense. Their team total is 20.5 points — a mark they eclipsed in every regular-season game from Week 13 on last year after QB Brock Purdy took over. It’s unlikely San Francisco goes way over that mark given how well-coached a talented Pittsburgh defense is, but the 49ers have enough weapons on offense to churn out three touchdowns worth of points. – Kyle Madson, Niners Wire
Steelers: Steelers: +2 (-110)
With the status of Nick Bosa and George Kittle in limbo for the Niners, the bet to go with the new and improved Steelers and take the points. The Steelers went 10-6-1 against the spread in 2022 which was sixth-best in the NFL. Pittsburgh has improved at practically every position in the offseason after finishing 9-8 last year and almost sneaking into the playoffs. Pittsburgh has a great shot to win this game outright if the Niners come in short-handed but either way we expect Pittsburgh to keep it close right until the end. – Curt Popejoy, Steelers Wire
Cardinals at Commanders: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Cardinals: Under 38 points (-110)
The Cardinals’ offense will be predicated on ball control and running the football. They have turned the offense over to QB Josh Dobbs, who has only eight career games and two starts entering his sixth NFL season. There isn’t much hope for the offense doing much, especially with Washington’s very tough defensive front.
Meanwhile, the Commanders are projected by ESPN to be the lowest-scoring team in the entire league. They could be without WR Terry McLaurin and, while it was only a handful of series, the Cardinals’ starting defensive unit did not allow any points in the preseason.
This has a 17-13 or 16-10 hard-to-watch snoozer written all over it. – Jess Root, Cards Wire
Commanders: Sam Howell over 205.5 passing yards (-115)
This is the first game of the Eric Bieniemy era and if the preseason was any indication, the passing game will be a much bigger part of the offense than under the former OC. The Commanders boast an outstanding trio of wideouts in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samue,l and Bieniemy will find ways to get them the ball in space. Betting for Howell to go the over here in Week 1 is a solid wager. – Bryan Manning, Commanders Wire
Texans at Ravens: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Texans: Ravens -10 (-110)
The Texans are working with a patchwork offensive line with holes at left guard, center, and right tackle. Throw in a rookie quarterback making his road debut and a new offensive staff to boot, and there could be a lot of opportunities for a more experienced Baltimore defense. – Mark Lane, Texans Wire
Ravens: Lamar Jackson over 52.5 rushing yards (-110)
Jackson is back in the lineup for the first time since suffering a knee injury against the Broncos in Week 12 of the 2022 regular season. He’ll make his debut in Todd Monken’s offense, and although experts will be watching his passing numbers, Jackson the runner is who Houston should be preparing for. With three talented running backs, and Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and as pass catchers, the Ravens star QB will quickly amass the 52.5 rushing yards with the Texans focused on slowing down skill position players. – Glenn Erby, Ravens Wire
Packers at Bears: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Packers: A.J. Dillon over 36.5 rushing yards (-120)
Dillon might be the No. 2 running back option in Green Bay, but he’s going to get a lot of touches in the Jordan Love-led offense. Consider this: In each of the last four games against the Bears, Dillon has rushed for at least 59 yards, including a 93-yard performance in the Packers’ win over the Bears at Soldier Field last season. Behind a strong offensive line and running against one of the league’s most unproven defensive fronts, Dillon could feast. – Zach Kruse, Packers Wire
Bears: Justin Fields over 242.5 passing + rushing yards (-115)
Fields emerged as arguably the best running quarterback in the NFL last season, averaging over 100 rushing yards in his final seven games. While Fields’ rushing ability will very much be part of his game, look for more production in the passing game. Fields finally has a No. 1 receiver in DJ Moore, as well as a slew of other weapons including Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool and Cole Kmet. While there should be a concentrated focus in the passing game, there’s also the element of Fields’ elite rushing ability. Over 242.5 combined yards against the Packers is a safe bet. – Alyssa Barbieri, Bears Wire
Raiders at Broncos: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Raiders: RB Josh Jacobs over 15.5 receiving yards (-110)
One of the best traits about Jacobs is his ability to play on all three downs. He is a fantastic receiver, catching 107 passes over the last two years with the Raiders. He’ll be used a ton as a receiver in this game, especially on checkdowns and on screens. With the number set at just 15.5 yards, Jacobs only needs a catch or two to reach that total. It’s worth noting that Jacobs totaled 82 receiving yards in his two matchups against the Broncos last year. So expect him to do that again in Week 1. – Marcus Mosher, Raiders Wire
Broncos: RB Javonte Williams anytime TD scorer (-115)
Tossing out last season because of his knee injury, if we look back to 2021, Williams scored 5 TDs in Denver’s final 7 games despite playing in a shared backfield with Melvin Gordon. Williams is the lead back now and while Samaje Perine will get snaps as well, Williams is the clear RB1. Alvin Kamara averaged 1.07 TDs per game in Sean Payton’s final two seasons with the Saints and Williams has drawn comparisons to Kamara in the past. Williams could be poised for a big year in Payton’s offense. – Jon Heath, Broncos Wire
Eagles at Patriots: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Eagles: QB Jalen Hurts over 285 passing + rushing yards (-115)
The 2022 MVP runner-up has a loaded lineup that includes four dynamic running backs, the best WR duo in the NFL, a top-three tight end and the best offensive line in the NFL. One of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL, Hurts will still have his designed runs as well. Look for the Eagles quarterback to throw for 240-plus yards, rush for 40-plus yards and total 285 yards. – Glenn Erby, Eagles Wire
Patriots: QB Jalen Hurts to throw over 0.5 interceptions (+105)
The Patriots will be at home with Tom Brady in the building against an Eagles team coming off a Super Bowl loss. Weird things can happen in this scenario, including Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts getting picked off by a stingy Patriots secondary at least once in the game. New England ranked behind only the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers last season with opposing quarterbacks averaging 1.1 interceptions per game against them. – Jordy McElroy, Patriots Wire
Dolphins at Chargers: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Dolphins: Raheem Mostert over 52.5 rushing yards (-120)
Mostert has been one of the NFL’s most efficient runners throughout his professional career, averaging 5.4 yards per carry (4.9 in Miami). Last season, he rushed for over 52 yards in seven of his 16 games, but he was also splitting touches with Chase Edmonds and Jeff Wilson Jr. At this moment, Mostert and undrafted rookie Chris Brooks are the only healthy backs on the roster, and with head coach Mike McDaniel stating that he wants to commit more to the running game in 2023, Mostert should have a strong performance against a Chargers defense that gave up the most yards per rush in 2022 (5.4). – Mike Masala, Dolphins Wire
Chargers: Mike Williams anytime TD scorer (+125)
There is plenty of excitement surrounding the Chargers offense under Kellen Moore, who will have a lot of weapons at his disposal, including Williams. Last season, Williams dominated the Dolphins for six catches, 116 yards, and a score. Williams will draw plenty of cornerback Xavien Howard on the outside. But Moore’s system sees his receivers move around the formation to create superior matchups, which should include Williams in the slot, where his big-bodied frame and physicality will be difficult to defend. In what will likely be a high-scoring affair in SoFi Stadium, expect to see Williams be targeted in the red zone where I think he reels in a touchdown. – Gavino Borquez, Chargers Wire
Rams at Seahawks: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Rams: Van Jefferson longest reception over 20.5 yards (-120)
With Cooper Kupp officially out, Jefferson will be the Rams’ de facto No. 1 receiver. He was going to play a significant role already, but with Kupp sidelined, he’ll get even more opportunities to make plays. Jefferson has been a deep threat for the Rams in the last three years and Sunday’s matchup is a great chance for him to make a big play down the field. Expect Matthew Stafford to take a few shots deep, especially if the Rams are trailing, so all it takes is one long pass for this bet to cash. – Cameron DaSilva, Rams Wire
Seahawks: Will Dissly anytime TD scorer (+500)
Generally speaking, Seattle’s offense was inefficient in the red zone last season, especially when Geno Smith was over-targeting DK Metcalf. Things were smoother early on in the year when tight end Will Dissly was more involved. Dissly scored three touchdowns in Seattle’s first four games in 2022 then went scoreless the rest of the season. If the Seahawks re-focus their attention on tight ends in the end zone a Dissly TD is definitely possible. – Tim Weaver, Seahawks Wire
Cowboys at Giants: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb over 72.5 receiving yards (-115)
Dallas wasn’t able to surround Lamb with receiving threats in 2022, a failure the front office has rectified in 2023. Adding Brandin Cooks as a deep threat, the evolution of Kavontae Turpin as a lightning-quick receiving option, and improved play by Michael Gallup and Jalen Tolbert means an inexperienced Giants’ secondary will not be able to focus their energy on Lamb. Playing in the slot, he will get plenty of one-on-one opportunities and will be force-fed targets. – K.D. Drummond, Cowboys Wire
Giants: Daniel Jones over 35.5 rushing yards (-110)
Daniel Jones rushed for over 700 yards a season ago and 93 of those came against the Cowboys, including a 79-yard performance in Week 3. The reality is that DJ often relies on his legs, especially when the pash rush is fierce, and that’s a Dallas strength. Whether it’s planned or unplanned, Jones likes to take off and 36-plus rushing yards on Sunday night feels like a safe bet. – Dan Benton, Giants Wire
Bills at Jets: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Bills: Damien Harris anytime TD scorer (+250)
The bookies don’t know yet: Damien Harris is Buffalo’s goal-line back. Look at those odds. That’s juiced to the point where it’s looking like a profit boost. Any time the Bills are in the red zone, you’re going to see No. 22 jogging onto the field. Sorry, James Cook fans. – Nick Wojton, Bills Wire
Jets: Aaron Rodgers over 236.5 yards passing (-115)
Do you really think the Jets are just going to sit and run the ball? In Aaron Rodgers’ big debut? No way. The Jets are going to throw the football and give the fans a show from their new star. 236.5 feels extremely low that it almost feels like a sucker bet. But it would be pretty surprising if Rodgers, with all his weapons to throw to, doesn’t reach at least 250. – Billy Riccette, Jets Wire
