NFL Power Rankings, final edition: More than a dozen teams could be on QB carousel
As it turned out, the team that has the first shot at Caleb Williams didn't have to tank for him at all.
The Chicago Bears have the first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, and it's because the Carolina Panthers traded Chicago its first-round pick and then went 2-15. But now that we've gotten to this point, we don't know if Williams is still the top pick over Drake Maye or if the Bears will even draft a quarterback.
The quarterback carousel might get crazy this offseason. It's reasonable to believe at least a dozen teams will be looking at changing QBs this offseason. Let's look at them all, and the possible paths to fixing the most important spot on the roster.
Bears: It seems like the Bears will draft a QB at No. 1. But which one? The Bears are also likely to get some wild trade offers for the first pick. No matter what the Bears do, it will have a huge ripple effect. If they draft a quarterback, they'll be trading Justin Fields, who should have a healthy trade market.
Commanders: This one seems easy. The Commanders have the second overall draft pick and will likely go with Maye or Williams after the other is chosen first. Anything else would be a shock.
Patriots: New England has the third pick with a two-quarterback top tier in the draft. Not great. The Patriots could jump on LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels. They could trade back. Or they could go the veteran route with someone like Kirk Cousins. No matter what, they need a quarterback. It would have been a lot cleaner if they had a top-two pick.
Giants: New York can get out of Daniel Jones' contract after 2024. The Giants pick sixth in the draft. They have to be at least considering selecting someone, especially considering Jones tore his ACL this season. The Giants taking a quarterback like Daniels, J.J. McCarthy or Michael Penix Jr. would remove a big option for teams behind the Giants that need a QB.
Titans: Maybe the Titans don't belong on this list. Most likely they see it through with Will Levis, who showed promise. But they'll be picking No. 7 and will have a shot at a top quarterback prospect. Levis seems to be set for 2024 but the Titans are worth mentioning. Ryan Tannehill is likely to depart and the Titans will have to consider a veteran backup, perhaps someone like Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett or Tyrod Taylor.
Falcons: After never trying for Lamar Jackson last offseason, the Falcons need a new quarterback. Trading for Fields, who grew up about a half hour outside of Atlanta in Kennesaw, seems like a great fit. Atlanta could also look at quarterbacks with the eighth pick. The Falcons need a new head coach and it's hard to say what their QB preference will be without knowing who that coach will be. Perhaps Cousins will be an option.
Jets: Let's assume Aaron Rodgers comes back. He's still a 40-year-old QB coming off an Achilles injury and we saw the Jets' backup situation after he went down with an injury last season. At very least, the Jets need to look for a QB of the future and they have the 10th pick of the draft. And if Rodgers decides to retire — there's no indication he will, but does anyone ever really know with Rodgers? — then there's even more QB chaos around the NFL.
Vikings: Will the Vikings run it back with Cousins, who is a free agent and tore his Achilles this past season? Maybe. Perhaps Minnesota wants to try something else. The Vikings have the draft's 11th pick. If they go with a veteran, maybe Russell Wilson makes sense? Assuming Wilson is cut by ...
Broncos: Everything points to Wilson being waived and the Broncos eating an $85 million dead cap hit. Jarrett Stidham could be a bridge quarterback to whatever is next. It's not like the Broncos will have the cap room to make a big signing. Denver has the No. 12 pick and could draft someone like Penix, McCarthy or Bo Nix if they fall. Though there's no guarantee any of those quarterbacks are still around at 12, considering how many teams need a QB.
Raiders: Maybe Aidan O'Connell, who had some decent moments as a rookie, is the answer. Maybe he has to be the answer. The Raiders pick at No. 13, which might be out of the range for a first-round QB. Las Vegas seems like a good candidate to trade up, but a lot depends on its decision at head coach. Would they chase a veteran like Cousins or Wilson, one year after wasting a lot of money on Jimmy Garoppolo?
Seahawks: Geno Smith couldn't replicate his 2022 season. He wasn't bad, but he wasn't great either. It seems like Smith will be back, but the Seahawks can move on from his contract if they want to. Either way the Seahawks should be looking at options in the draft at QB, whether in the first round or later. Smith will turn 34 in October.
Buccaneers: It seems obvious that Baker Mayfield will be back, but he is on a one-year deal and played well enough that if he hit free agency there would be a market for him. Just look at how many teams need a QB. Mayfield returning to Tampa Bay is the most likely outcome, but it's a question until it gets done. He'd be an interesting option if he reaches free agency.
Steelers: The Steelers made the playoffs with Mason Rudolph. Pittsburgh opted for Rudolph over Kenny Pickett at the end of the season, which says Pickett isn't a sure thing to be the 2024 starter. All options should be open for the Steelers to upgrade, whether it's a veteran like Wilson or Cousins, or a trade for Fields. Or maybe Rudolph can make a case to keep the job with a good playoff run.
Others could join this list if there's a surprising development or two. Get ready for what might be an unprecedented offseason for quarterback movement.
Here are the power rankings at the end of the NFL regular season:
32. Carolina Panthers (2-15, Last Week: 32)
The Panthers fired general manager Scott Fitterer, which shouldn't be that big of a surprise considering David Tepper was his boss. Whoever takes the Panthers' head coach and GM jobs will have to believe in Bryce Young as the quarterback of the future. That could eliminate some top candidates.
31. Washington Commanders (4-13, LW: 31)
Washington has the second pick of the draft and that's a good place to be. Washington will presumably have either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye and a new head coach as well, after firing Ron Rivera, making it an exciting offseason for a team that needs to get out of its losing rut.
30. New England Patriots (4-13, LW: 30)
Bill Belichick seemingly opening the door to relinquishing some personnel control is significant. That might change the conversations with the Patriots. Or it might open up a possibility with a team who wants Belichick the coach, and not necessarily Belichick the GM. There's plenty more drama to come.
29. Arizona Cardinals (4-13, LW: 29)
About the 2024 quarterback situation, Jonathan Gannon made it clear it'll be Kyler Murray, telling the team's site: "There is no doubt. 'Number 1' is our franchise quarterback." Murray earned that. He played very well after coming back from his ACL tear. That clarity allows the Cardinals to work on the rest of the roster around him.
28. Los Angeles Chargers (5-12, LW: 27)
The Chargers are one of four teams that is $34 million or more over the projected 2024 salary cap. It helps that they'll get the fifth pick in the draft, Justin Herbert back from injury and a new head coach. But don't expect much help in free agency. A team that is 0-1 in the playoffs since the end of the 2018 season shouldn't be in this bad of a cap situation.
27. Tennessee Titans (6-11, LW: 28)
In the immediate aftermath of Mike Vrabel being fired, I can't say it makes a lot of sense. Sure, Vrabel had two straight losing seasons. But it wasn't a roster that underachieved. Tennessee didn't have the talent to be better than .500. Put simply: It's hard to imagine the Titans' next head coach will be better than Vrabel.
26. New York Giants (6-11, LW: 25)
Midway through the season, when the Giants were heavy on bickering and light on results, there should have been a concern over Brian Daboll losing the locker room. That didn't happen. The Giants finished strong, punctuating the end of the season with a win over the Eagles. It's a good sign moving forward.
25. Atlanta Falcons (7-10, LW: 24)
It was no surprise Arthur Smith was fired on Sunday night. He didn't win enough and there wasn't much reason to believe that would change. Atlanta can be good in a hurry if they get the right quarterback, which is why their rumored interest in Bill Belichick, if he's free, makes sense.
24. New York Jets (7-10, LW: 26)
Breece Hall was great in the final few games. I'm not sure why the Jets gave him 37 carries on Sunday, but he had 178 rushing yards. Hall had 507 yards from scrimmage in the Jets' final three games. He's going to explode next season.
23. Denver Broncos (8-9, LW: 22)
The MO for the Saints with Sean Payton was to spend aggressively, sometimes recklessly, and backload a lot of it (there's a reason New Orleans is $75 million over the projected 2024 salary cap). Now we expect Payton to be relatively quiet just because the Broncos are apparently ready to take on an $85 million cap hit to cut Russell Wilson? It's hard to imagine Payton sitting out the offseason just to get the cap in order.
22. Minnesota Vikings (7-10, LW: 21)
Minnesota has to figure out who its 2024 quarterback is, and it gets a little more complicated because they're likely to sign receiver Justin Jefferson to an extension that looks like a quarterback deal. It will be an important and interesting offseason.
21. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9, LW: 23)
It seems like Antonio Pierce will eventually be the team's permanent head coach. The Raiders deserve to see what Pierce can do after the entire organization rallied around him for the final nine games of the season. But it's also not the type of easy, non-splashy move team owner Mark Davis has done before.
20. Chicago Bears (7-10, LW: 17)
The Bears had a good finish but a disappointing final game. One game shouldn't be the reason for a franchise-changing decision, but it's hard to believe the Bears' belief in Justin Fields didn't dip watching him struggle against a Packers pass defense that had been torched by some recent opponents. The decision to draft a quarterback at No. 1 might have always been the plan, but it seems like it was cemented on Sunday.
19. New Orleans Saints (9-8, LW: 20)
The Saints were frustrating to the end. They played their two best games right at the end, and it wasn't good enough to make the playoffs. It makes you wonder why they couldn't play like that before Week 17. At least there can be some renewed confidence in Derek Carr, who had six touchdowns and no interceptions over the final two weeks while completing better than 75% of his passes.
18. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8, LW: 19)
Joe Mixon took a big pay cut and has just a $2.2 million base salary for next season. That looks like a bargain. Mixon rushed for 1,034 yards this season after gaining 111 yards in the finale. He isn't a superstar back anymore, but the Bengals aren't paying him like one either.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8, LW: 11)
Let's be real: If the Jaguars played in a bigger market, their collapse to miss the playoffs would be perhaps the talking point of the entire NFL for a few days. Trevor Lawrence had injuries but still wasn't good enough. Doug Pederson should get plenty of heat for what happened. Missing the playoffs was inexcusable.
16. Indianapolis Colts (9-8, LW: 14)
Head coach Shane Steichen said he's still thinking about his infamous fourth-and-1 decision, which took Jonathan Taylor off the field and then resulted in a bad pass from Gardner Minshew that backup running back Tyler Goodson couldn't catch. One bad call shouldn't erase a fine first season from Steichen, but that was a lousy way to end it.
15. Seattle Seahawks (9-8, LW: 18)
Linebacker Bobby Wagner finished with 183 tackles, which led the NFL. It's his third time leading the NFL in tackles. He'll be a free agent and will be 34 years old next season but clearly can still play, whether back in Seattle or elsewhere.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8, LW: 13)
The Buccaneers got the job done but there has to be concern about the offense. Aside from garbage time two weeks ago against New Orleans, the Buccaneers' offense has hit a wall. The Bucs couldn't score a touchdown against the Panthers with the NFC South title on the line. The defense came through and the offense did enough to win, but you have to wonder if Baker Mayfield is too injured to generate any offense in the playoffs.
13. Green Bay Packers (9-8, LW: 16)
Aaron Jones had three 100-yard games to end the season. Green Bay missed him when he was out with a knee injury. The Packers' best shot at an upset at Dallas is to ride Jones, which might keep the Cowboys' pass rush from teeing off and also keep their offense off the field.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, LW: 15)
The Steelers are the only playoff team with a negative point differential. They finished at -5. That won't overshadow how Pittsburgh steered out of a terrible skid to win three in a row and make the postseason. There's work to be done for Pittsburgh to graduate from a playoff bubble team to a true Super Bowl contender, but for now let's appreciate what the Steelers accomplished.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6, LW: 10)
I'm not sure I've seen another top team totally fall apart like the Eagles, unless it was due to major injuries. The Eagles were 10-1 and while that was unsustainable, losing five of six to finish the regular season and looking like one of the worst teams in the NFL was unfathomable. Head coach Nick Sirianni is going to have to answer to that, and it will get worse if the Eagles lose their playoff opener in Tampa.
10. Houston Texans (10-7, LW: 12)
What a season for the Texans. An AFC South title wasn't on the radar to start the season. But DeMeco Ryans did a great job as a rookie coach and C.J. Stroud had the best rookie season we've ever seen from a QB. The future is limitless in Houston.
9. Los Angeles Rams (10-7, LW: 9)
While not downgrading Kevin Stefanski or DeMeco Ryans, I think Sean McVay is my Coach of the Year pick. There were so many questions about the Rams' roster before the season. McVay has evolved and got the most out of his players this season. A 10-win season for the Rams is something nobody saw coming.
8. Miami Dolphins (11-6, LW: 6)
The Dolphins' injuries were too much to overcome against the Bills. That's a reasonable excuse. But getting shut out in the second half at home against Buffalo with the AFC East on the line just reinforces the notion that the Dolphins aren't going far in the playoffs because they shrink against good teams.
7. Cleveland Browns (11-6, LW: 8)
The Browns didn't care about Sunday's finale so we won't care about the results. How will the Browns' season be seen without a playoff win or two? It's strange for a franchise that has had so few postseason berths, but a one-and-done would probably feel like a big disappointment. They have a winnable game at Houston to start their postseason.
6. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6, LW: 7)
The Chiefs' key players got rest, and that was huge for them. And they still got a win against the Chargers. While it hasn't looked pretty for the Chiefs this season, I'm still not ready to count them out.
5. Detroit Lions (12-5, LW: 5)
It's not just the Sam LaPorta injury, which obviously isn't great for the Lions' offense if he can't play this week. Detroit's defense is an issue, too. The Lions have given up 300 yards passing in three straight games, twice to Nick Mullens and the Vikings. That's not great with Matthew Stafford and the Rams coming in for a wild-card game.
4. Dallas Cowboys (12-5, LW: 4)
The Cowboys needed home-field advantage more than any other team in the playoff field. They have an extreme home/road split. With the NFC East title they don't have to worry about going on the road until the NFC championship game, at the earliest.
3. Buffalo Bills (11-6, LW: 3)
The Bills made a statement Sunday night, and not just by winning the AFC East. Not many other teams would be able to overcome three turnovers in Miami territory and a clock management fiasco at the end of the half to beat a team like the Dolphins on the road. Buffalo at Baltimore would be a fantastic AFC championship game.
2. San Francisco 49ers (12-5, LW: 2)
With the Cowboys getting the No. 2 seed, the 49ers can't face them in the divisional round. Would you pick the Lions, Buccaneers, Eagles, Rams or Packers over a rested 49ers team in a playoff game at San Francisco? Me either.
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4, LW: 1)
The Ravens finished the regular season as the best team in football. They were the only 13-win team in the league. Lamar Jackson is going to win MVP. And most of that will be forgotten if they don't make a deep playoff run with him.
