NFL Power Rankings: Chiefs need work, but here's why you shouldn't count out Patrick Mahomes

Travis Kelce threw his helmet in a tantrum. Andy Reid scolded his star tight end on the sideline. Instead of countless shots of Taylor Swift from CBS, we got continuous reactions from Patrick Mahomes looking frustrated and angry.

The Chiefs were expected to roll the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas. We saw something entirely different. The Chiefs looked painfully average in a stunning 20-14 loss. You can lose to the Bills, Eagles or even the Packers or Broncos on the road. But the Raiders? At home? And when you thought Mahomes would just reach in his magic bag and bring the Chiefs back, he couldn't.

This is the most vulnerable the Chiefs have been in the Mahomes era. They've lost three of four and are 3-5 since a 6-1 start. There were plenty of social media obituaries for the 2023 Chiefs written as people assembled their kids' Christmas gifts. The Chiefs were dead, buried, then exhumed just to be buried another time.

Let's be careful about crossing off the Chiefs this season.

It appears bleak now, and everyone can see the issues. There's no continuity or explosiveness in the offense. They got just 14 points against an average at best Raiders defense. When Mahomes needed to bring the Chiefs back, he couldn't. That's because his receivers aren't very good, aside from perhaps Rashee Rice. And Rice is a rookie.

Even Kelce is looking less dominant at age 34. He has gone eight games without reaching 100 yards, and five straight games without a touchdown. Mahomes has done more yelling this season than in the rest of his NFL seasons combined, and it's not hard to figure out why. The Chiefs have six losses. The last time they lost that many games was 2017, with Alex Smith starting at quarterback ahead of first-round rookie Mahomes. It's simply not a great Chiefs team.

And all of that said, they still have Reid and Mahomes.

If you want to write off the Chiefs after that loss to the Raiders it's fine, but keep in mind that they barely lost with the Raiders scoring two defensive touchdowns in seven seconds. The defense was good again. The offense wasn't and maybe it never will look better than it has this season. But be honest: If you're the fan of an AFC team, do you really want to see Mahomes coming to your city for a playoff game?

The Chiefs have serious issues but that's true for nearly the entire league. If you've made it to Christmas and you still have the same offensive issues you did in September, they're not getting fixed. But the Chiefs have a top-10 defense, which held the Raiders to 205 yards and zero offensive touchdowns on Monday. And no offense to John Harbaugh, Kyle Shanahan or anyone else, but the Chiefs will have arguably the best head coach in the playoff field. Also no offense to Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or anyone else, but the Chiefs will have arguably the best quarterback in the playoff field (that might not even be arguable; you should still take Mahomes over any other QB). That combo gives anyone a shot at a deep playoff run no matter the record.

It's not like the Chiefs haven't had adversity in the Mahomes era. It, however, has rarely lasted this long. The Chiefs are who they are, a flawed team that needs its quarterback to be Superman more than ever. And still, if you want to assume the Chiefs have no shot at a deep playoff run, do so at your own risk.

Here are the power rankings after Week 16 of the NFL season:

32. Carolina Panthers (2-13, Last Week: 32)

OK, Bryce Young. That's the type of performance that should get the Panthers excited going into the offseason. The Packers have been horrid against the pass lately but it doesn't matter. Young made some big-time throws. He hadn't done that much before, and Sunday was a huge step forward.

31. Washington Commanders (4-11, LW: 31)

Sam Howell was 6-of-22 for 56 yards and a minuscule 1.7 passer rating. For the second straight week, Jacoby Brissett came in and looked much better. Howell made strides in the middle portion of the season. Then he hit a wall, and unless there's a big turnaround the last two games — it's possible Howell doesn't get another snap this season — it will be impossible for the Commanders to go into 2024 with him as their starter.

30. Arizona Cardinals (3-12, LW: 29)

If the Cardinals lose at Philadelphia and vs. Seattle to end the season, they'll have at worst the second pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. That opens up options. They can either pick a top quarterback or deal the pick for a fortune if they want to ride it out with Kyler Murray. Either way it's a great place to be in. That Patriots' win on Sunday night was huge for Arizona.

29. New England Patriots (4-11, LW: 30)

You're not telling players to tank. It's not a thing. And Sunday night's Patriots win was fun in the moment. But we all know how damaging that could be to New England. There's a massive difference between drafting No. 2 and No. 3 in this draft with Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. If the Patriots are No. 3 they can still move up to No. 2, but that will cost draft picks and other teams are going to be calling Arizona too. And at the moment the Commanders are slightly ahead of the Patriots for the No. 3 spot. That's a win we might remember for a while.

28. New York Giants (5-10, LW: 27)

The Tommy DeVito story was a lot of fun but like Linsanity, it had a very short shelf life. You could see the difference on Monday when Tyrod Taylor got in the game. It will be interesting to see what a 5-10 team wants to do at quarterback the rest of the way.

27. Los Angeles Chargers (5-10, LW: 28)

It was good for the Chargers to compete like they did against the Bills, even in a loss. You don't want to finish the season being that team, the one that doesn't show up for the final month. That makes for a long offseason and (more) people lose their jobs that way.

26. Tennessee Titans (5-10, LW: 25)

It was good to see tight end Chig Okonkwo get 63 yards and a touchdown. One of the most disappointing things in the Titans season has been seeing the lack of production from young talented players like Okonkwo and Treylon Burks. Maybe that changes next season.

25. New York Jets (6-9, LW: 26)

Breece Hall had 95 yards rushing, 96 yards receiving and looked like one of the NFL's best backs. We haven't seen that often enough because the Jets' offense has been so bad around him. Hopefully the Jets aren't awful on offense next season and we see this Hall more often.

24. Denver Broncos (7-8, LW: 18)

The last two weeks let us know the Broncos' winning streak was a mirage and there's still a ton of work to do. It was admirable to scratch back into the playoff race, but losing to the Patriots at home eliminates a lot of the good feelings Denver would have had going into the offseason.

23. Atlanta Falcons (7-8, LW: 24)

Seeing Taylor Heinicke play better than Desmond Ridder again reinforces how awful it was that the Falcons sold their fans on it being a smart idea to ride with Ridder this season, no questions asked.

22. Chicago Bears (6-9, LW: 21)

If the Bears had held on against the Browns or Darnell Mooney had caught that Hail Mary, the Bears would have a shot of finishing with a winning record this season. Still, 8-9 wouldn't be that bad, and it probably would mean head coach Matt Eberflus saves his job.

21. New Orleans Saints (7-8, LW: 20)

The Saints really could have used a Jaguars win Sunday. They're a game behind the Buccaneers and even if they beat the Bucs in Week 17 to tie up the division, Tampa Bay has the tiebreaker due to a better record against common opponents. And the Buccaneers finish against the Panthers. Practically speaking, the Saints' only path to the playoffs is through a wild-card spot.

20. Green Bay Packers (7-8, LW: 19)

The Packers shouldn't need all 60 minutes to beat the Panthers, but we're finding out Green Bay isn't that good. The Packers could lose out. A loss to the Vikings would probably eliminate them from playoff contention, and I'm not sure how motivated they'd be to finish the season against the Bears after that.

19. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7, LW: 22)

George Pickens was great putting up 195 yards on Saturday, but did he really silence all of the criticism, as we saw on social media a million times? The question wasn't Pickens' talent. Putting up 195 yards when he's targeted enough was always possible. It was about his professionalism, effort and being a good teammate. He's young and has a chance to improve in those ways. But all those things that were issues last week didn't get better just because he took a short slant pass to the end zone.

18. Las Vegas Raiders (7-8, LW: 23)

There's no more damning evidence of how bad Josh McDaniels was as a head coach than seeing how much better the Raiders are with interim Antonio Pierce who deserves a shot to keep coaching the Raiders in 2024. Will team owner Mark Davis make that move or does he need to seek the bigger headline (and maybe worse coach for the Raiders) this offseason?

17. Minnesota Vikings (7-8, LW: 14)

Just when we thought Jameis Winston wouldn't be a big part of this 2023 season, he somehow assumed the identity "Nick Mullens." Mullens is Jameis Lite, with the possibility of a 60-yard highlight or the worst interception you've seen on every pass attempt. Not good for the blood pressure of any Vikings fan or coach.

16. Indianapolis Colts (8-7, LW: 13)

The Colts aren't good. They're over .500 and in the playoff race because rookie head coach Shane Steichen is having a good season and they play very hard. But they have games where it's clear their talent level is far lower than their record. Sunday's loss to the Falcons was one of them. They're still in good shape for a playoff berth because the rest of the AFC's middle class keeps losing, but a playoff berth shouldn't change the realistic outlook for where the team is at, like it did for the 2023 Giants.

15. Houston Texans (8-7, LW: 12)

Houston isn't in bad shape despite the loss. Next Gen Stats have its playoff chances at 36% with two games left. The big question is whether C.J. Stroud will be back because the Texans need him.

14. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7, LW: 10)

Having a flat spot with Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Burrow out isn't the end of the world. But the Bengals have little margin for error. Their playoff chances got better with some losses around the rest of the AFC wild-card race in Week 16, but they might need to beat the Chiefs and Browns in the final two weeks. Not easy.

13. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7, LW: 11)

Trevor Lawrence is dealing with a new injury, this one to his right shoulder. It makes evaluating Lawrence after Year 3 more difficult. But it's also fair to say where he's at is disappointing. He's not a bust, but he's not on an obvious path to stardom either. And, no, it's not because he has a terrible supporting cast. It's not the 2023 49ers cast but it's fine. He just hasn't broken out the way we expected, and it's OK to admit that.

12. Seattle Seahawks (8-7, LW: 16)

It was fair to wonder if Geno Smith's job was on the line for that final drive against the Titans. He'd done very little in that game and had the Seahawks lost, why not go back to Drew Lock? And to take it a step further, Smith's contract isn't hard to get out of after this season if Seattle wants to change directions. Smith came through with a touchdown drive for the win and perhaps a lot more.

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7, LW: 17)

The Bucs suddenly look like a team you don't want to face in the playoffs. If the Buccaneers win the division, they're very likely to face the Cowboys in the wild-card round. Given the Cowboys' road woes through the season, that game will be very, very interesting. Don't sleep on this Buccaneers team. There's a reason they take a big jump in this week's rankings.

10. Los Angeles Rams (8-7, LW: 15)

The Rams are quickly becoming the team nobody wants to see in the wild-card round of the NFC playoffs. That's a testament to Sean McVay, who is writing a heck of a Coach of the Year case.

9. Cleveland Browns (10-5, LW: 9)

There aren't too many teams you should trust as a Super Bowl contender. But every time you watch the Browns, they look more and more like one. It seems impossible to believe Joe Flacco takes this team on a deep playoff run, but if you forget about his backstory and check out the plays he's making, it looks legit. As Browns fans will quickly remind you, this team beat the 49ers and Ravens this season.

8. Kansas City Chiefs (9-6, LW: 7)

Again, it's worth putting into perspective: The Chiefs lost a one-score game in which they gave up two defensive touchdowns in seven seconds. That's fluky. You're going to hear a lot of overreaction this week about Kansas City, and some will be justified, but also don't buy into the notion they're not any good.

7. Detroit Lions (11-4, LW: 8)

No matter what happens in a few weeks, don't let it overshadow a cool and fun season for Detroit. The first division title since 1993 and the first home playoff game ever at Ford Field (opened in 2002) are reasons for celebration.

6. Philadelphia Eagles (11-4, LW: 6)

I'm not sure there have been more unsatisfying 11-4 teams than the Eagles. They refuse to do anything easy, and not being able to put away the Giants on Monday was another example.

5. Dallas Cowboys (10-5, LW: 4)

Every Cowboys loss leads to a week of freaking out, but not here. The Cowboys did just fine against the Dolphins on Sunday. They lost on the last play against a good team on the road. It happens. I actually like the Cowboys' chances of winning on the road in the playoffs a little more after they played a coin-flip game that they happened to lose.

4. Miami Dolphins (11-4, LW: 5)

Make no mistake, Jaylen Waddle's apparent high ankle sprain is bad news for Miami, which probably has to win at Baltimore in Week 17 to keep the finale from being a flexed AFC East championship showdown against the Bills. They can beat the Ravens or the Bills without Waddle, but it's a lot tougher.

3. Buffalo Bills (9-6, LW: 3)

I'm willing to excuse a bad Bills performance on Saturday. It was a letdown spot after big games against the Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys, and they did win. But that performance is also why it's tough to trust Buffalo.

2. San Francisco 49ers (11-4, LW: 1)

Every team, other than the 1972 Dolphins, had a bad day. The 49ers looked great before Monday, and Brock Purdy isn't going to throw four interceptions very often. The Ravens clearly are No. 1 going forward, but it's not time to pick apart San Francisco. The 49ers are still capable of winning a Super Bowl. But that was certainly an eye-opening result vs. Baltimore.

1. Baltimore Ravens (12-3, LW: 2)

Wow. The Ravens changed the entire narrative of the 2023 NFL season in about three hours on Christmas night.