NFL player props: Ravens prey to patron Saint of receptions Alvin Kamara
It's been nearly eight years since New Orleans Saints quarterback Andy Dalton won as a starter on "Monday Night Football." The Red Rifle has repeatedly jammed in prime-time games — most recently, 18 days ago when he threw a pair of pick-sixes that fueled a 42-34 loss to the Cardinals and also gassed up the Twitter meme machine. Dalton will attempt to draw inspiration from Taylor Swift on Monday night and shake off his past as the Saints host the Baltimore Ravens. If New Orleans wins, they'll insert themselves into a 4-5 logjam atop the NFC South. If they lose, the prime-time Dalton discourse will continue and the Ravens will inch a game ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North. Here are three player props from BetMGM I like in tonight's game:
Alvin Kamara over 4.5 receptions (-135)
The over on this prop has been paying out like a hacked ATM machine since Dalton became New Orleans' starter. Kamara is averaging 8.5 targets and seven receptions per game with Dalton under center, catching at least six balls in every contest. Baltimore gives up the fifth-most receptions per game to running backs (6.25). No matter the game script, Kamara will rack up receptions.
Devin Duvernay longest reception over 19.5 yards (-110)
Baltimore's cache of offensive weapons is starting to resemble that of the Pontifical Swiss Guard. Running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are on the shelf tonight, along with tight end Mark Andrews and wide receiver Rashod Bateman, who is out for the season. Fortunately for the Ravens, Duvernay has flashed for them since the beginning of the season. He's hit this mark in six of eight games and will match up against a Saints defense that ranks 25th in dropback success rate and will be without the services of top cornerback Marshon Lattimore.
Justin Tucker over 1.5 field goals made (-145)
New Orleans' red zone defense ranks seventh in the league, allowing a touchdown on just 50% of red zone possessions. Baltimore's red zone offense ranks 15th, finding the end zone 56.7% of the time after they cross the opponent's 20-yard line. Tucker is the best kicker in the history of the NFL and has cashed this prop in his last five games.
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, and rbsdm.com (garbage time removed).
