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NFL odds: The public is betting that Kyler Murray won't start the season for Arizona

Greg Brainos
·3 min read
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Now that the NFL's coaching carousel has come to an end, fans and bettors are turning their attention to the QB carousel which will soon spin into motion. In anticipation of that event, BetMGM posted prop lines for six different teams, asking which QB will take the first snap in Week 1 of the regular season.

The malcontents

Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray (-500) / Any other quarterback (+340)

Murray scrubbed his social media like someone looking for a new job, following the Cardinals' 34-11 playoff loss to the Rams. These situations involving a quarterback under contract most often end with that player under center to start the season, prompting an opening line of -2000 on Murray to take Arizona's first snap in Week 1. The public is fading the No. 9 pick in the 2018 MLB draft, though, reflected by the more than 80% of tickets betting that "Any other quarterback" will start for the Cardinals.

Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson (-350) / Any other quarterback (+240)

Here's the timeline since last offseason: Wilson's camp complained about the ineffectiveness of the offensive line, a list of acceptable trade destinations was released in conjunction with reports of Wilson's unhappiness in Seattle, Wilson suited up for the regular season as the Seahawks allowed the seventh-most sacks and finished a distant last place in a loaded NFC West, and now Wilson is being linked to possible trades to the Broncos, Eagles, and Commanders. More than 81% of public money is betting that Wilson won't take the first snap in Week 1.

Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals were eliminated in the wild card round by the Los Angeles Rams. (Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports)

The free agents

Denver Broncos: Teddy Bridgewater (+400) / Any other quarterback (-650)

The Broncos have a phenomenal young running back on a rookie contract, one of the better receiving corps in the league, a strong defense and nearly $48 million in cap space. The only piece Denver's missing is a good quarterback. If the Broncos can work a deal for Aaron Rodgers or Wilson, they'll be instant contenders in the AFC.

New Orleans Saints: Jameis Winston (+340) / Any other quarterback (-500)

Winston is arguably the best quarterback among this year's group of unrestricted free agents. That's not saying much, but the LASIK patient's limited 2021 performance spoke plenty loud. Winston tossed 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions before tearing his ACL in Week 8. Almost 98% of public money is betting on Winston to re-sign with New Orleans and start in Week 1. Is he what the Saints need, though? Sean Payton is gone and New Orleans owns the NFL's worst cap space situation. Signing Winston to a big contract is more likely to delay a Saints rebuild than it is to get them into the Super Bowl.

The New Yorkers

New York Jets: Zach Wilson (-1400) / Any other quarterback (+700)

Wilson had about as much fun in 2021 as the guy who claimed he found shrimp tails in his Cinnamon Toast Crunch. The Jets rookie finished with the league's worst QB rating, throwing nine touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 13 games. Only Joe Burrow was sacked more times per contest. It's too early for New York to give up on Wilson without getting a look at him behind a decent offensive line.

New York Giants: Daniel Jones (-500) / Any other quarterback (+340)

I'm surprised this is on the board, especially at this low of a price. New York doesn't have the cap space to sign a better quarterback, it's highly unlikely to draft one that it would play in Week 1 and Jones is light years more talented than any of the other QBs on the roster. Out of all six props, this is the only one where at least 50% of the public is betting on the juiced favorite.

Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, spotrac.com and teamrankings.com.