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NFL futures, odds: No team enters with more hype than the Detroit Lions

pete truszkowski
·9 min read
4

The Detroit Lions have been the lovable losers of the NFL for quite a while now. They last won a playoff game in 1991. They've made the playoffs just three times since the turn of the century. The last time they made it was 2016. They have the third longest playoff drought in the league and are coming off a season where they won just three games and finished with the second worst record in the league.

You wouldn't know any of that if you were just going off the activity in the betting market over the past few months. Few teams, if any, are getting as much love as the Lions. Is that the result of them being the lovable underdog with a passionate head coach? Is it the "Hard Knocks" bump? Does sports betting being legal in Michigan have something to do with this? Surely all of those play a role, but there's reasons for hope surrounding the Lions as we enter the 2022 NFL season.

Yahoo's Frank Schwab has the Lions ranked 25th in his preseason power rankings. While not great, it's a market improvement from their 31st-place finish last season. The betting market seems to agree that while the Lions aren't likely to be great, they aren't one of the very worst teams in the league. And bettors? They're much higher on Detroit than the market is.

Are the Lions significantly improved?

Last season, the Lions won just three games en route to a 3-13-1 record that was the second worst in football. However, for the upcoming season, Detroit's win total is all the way up to 6.5 wins. The expected 3.5 win improvement is tied for the largest projected improvement in the league.

There's no questioning which side bettors fall on either. The Lions win total has received more betting action than any other team in the NFL at BetMGM. Detroit to go over 6.5 wins has received more bets than any side for any win total across the league. Currently, 91% of the bets and 87% of the money is backing Detroit to go over 6.5 wins.

The Lions are -450 favorites to miss the playoffs this season at BetMGM, odds which suggest they miss the playoffs nearly 82% of the time. However, don't tell bettors that. Currently, 97% of bets and 95% of the money is backing the Lions to make the playoffs at +350. It's the most popular bet of any team to make the playoffs. Only the New York Jets are a bigger liability for BetMGM.

ALLEN PARK, MICHIGAN - JULY 27: Head coach Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions looks on during the Detroit Lions Training Camp on July 27, 2022 at the Lions Headquarters and Training Facility in Allen Park, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
Dan Campbell and the Lions are one of the NFL's more hyped teams. (Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

Detroit is +850 to win the NFC North. Those are the third best odds in the division, well behind Green Bay and Minnesota. The Lions are the betting favorites to finish third in the division at +160, but oddsmakers wouldn't be surprised to see them finish in last place either. Detroit is +130 to finish in last place in the division, while Chicago is the betting favorite to occupy the basement at -125. The Lions are +250 underdogs to finish the season in a top-2 spot in the division.

Don't tell bettors that either. The Lions are far and away the most popular bet to win the NFC North as they've received nearly 56% of all the bets for the division. Detroit is the second most popular bet to win their division across the entire league, behind only the Eagles winning the NFC East. If the Lions don't win their division, they are +750 underdogs to make the playoffs as a wildcard team in the NFC.

Lions are still extreme Super Bowl long shots

Detroit enters the 2022 season with 125-to-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Those odds are tied for 25th best with the Carolina Panthers. Only the Jaguars, Giants, Jets, Seahawks, Falcons and Texans have worse odds than the Lions. However, it's worth noting that the Cincinnati Bengals were 125-to-1 to win the Super Bowl entering last season.

The Lions are 50-to-1 to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Those are the 12th best odds in the conference, ahead of only Carolina, the Giants, Seattle and Atlanta. However, that's not stopping bettors once again. The Lions are the second most popular bet to win the NFC behind only Philadelphia.

Oddsmakers think Detroit finishing with the worst record in the league is much more likely than either of these outcomes. Detroit is 12-to-1 to finish with the fewest wins in the NFL, an honor they shared with Jacksonville last season. Those odds are 8th best. The Lions are 14-to-1 to score the fewest points of any team during the regular season. Those odds are tied with the Giants for 9th best. Seven teams scored fewer points than the Lions last season.

Lions player props and awards

With bettors so high on the Lions, what does the market think of some of their key players?

Aidan Hutchinson

The Lions were happy to see Aidan Hutchinson drop to them with the second overall pick in this year's draft, and the betting market is expecting big things from the former Michigan Wolverine. Hutchinson is currently the betting favorite to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year with +450 odds. He's far and away the most popular bet in the market, getting over 52% of the betting action. No other player has received more than 7.2% of bets backing them to win the award.

Hutchinson is 50-to-1 to lead the NFL in sacks, which makes him somewhat of a long shot. However, once again, bettors are putting their money down as he's the fifth most popular bet. Only T.J. Watt, Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa and Kayvon Thibodeaux are receiving more bets backing them to lead the league in sacks. Hutchinson's season-long prop for sacks this upcoming season is set at 7.5 sacks. Hutchinson is 200-to-1 to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He's the eighth most popular bet to win the award, but the odds haven't moved.

Jared Goff

Jared Goff is 150-to-1 to win NFL MVP this upcoming season. Those odds are among the worst for a starting quarterback. Even quarterbacks like Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson and Mitch Trubisky enter with better odds.

The lack of faith in Goff's abilities doesn't stop there. He's 100-to-1 to lead the league in passing yards, which is tied with Justin Fields and ahead of only Daniel Jones for worst odds among confirmed starters this upcoming season. Goff is 66-to-1 to lead the league in passing touchdowns, which is tied for 22nd with the likes of Jones and Wilson. Goff is 25-to-1 to lead the league in interceptions thrown.

In terms of season long props, Goff's over/under for passing yards is set at 3,700.5 yards. He had 3,245 in 14 games last season, which is a 17-game pace of 3,940 yards. His over/under for touchdowns is set at 23.5 scores. He had 19 in 14 games last season. His over/under for interceptions thrown is 11.5 picks. He had just 8 last season.

D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift has missed four games in each of his first two NFL seasons. He also played a bunch of games last season where he was on a clearly limited snap count. For that reason, he's tough to project and potentially hard to trust.

Swift is 50-to-1 to lead the league in rushing yards this season. He's the sixth most popular bet behind Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Najee Harris, Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb. Swift is 40-to-1 to lead the league in rushing scores.

Swift's over/under for rushing yards this upcoming season is set at 849.5 rushing yards. He had 617 last season and 521 in his rookie year. His over/under for rushing scores is set at 6.5 touchdowns. He had just five last season, but had eight in his rookie year. Swift's over/under for combined rushing and receiving yards is set at 1,399.5 yards. He had 1,069 yards from scrimmage in 13 games last season.

Other Lions players

Lions open as home underdogs

Two of the league's most hyped offseason teams will meet in Week 1. The Lions open the season as a 4-point home underdog against the Philadelphia Eagles.

The line movement around this game has been intriguing to watch over the course of the offseason. The Lions opened as 3.5-point underdogs, but the line quickly moved to 4.5 points as Eagles love came in. However, over the past few weeks, the line has come back the Lions' way a little and has dropped to 4 points.

If the Lions are actually as improved as many believe, keeping this game within four points on their home field doesn't seem like a tall task. However, these two teams met last season, with the Eagles picking up a 44-6 win in one of Detroit's rare no-shows. Will the Lions exact revenge for that drubbing? Detroit is +155 on the moneyline to win the game outright.