NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 18 Sunday Baller
The Week 18 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EST and features 13 games. Only the participants of the Saturday games (Steelers-Ravens and Texans-Colts) and Sunday Night Football (Bills-Dolphins) play outside the main slate in the final week of the regular season, though many teams will be resting key players in preparation for the postseason. Yahoo will run plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 18, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $100,000 to the top 1,144 finishers, including $20,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 5,850 entries, but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay.
Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared toward head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.
[Play in Yahoo's Week 18 Sunday Baller — guaranteed prize pool of $100K]
Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass catchers. Your NFL $100k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit.
Suggested Week 18 plays consist mostly of key contributors from teams with something to play for, as well as an affordable RB enjoying a late-season surge.
QUARTERBACK
Geno Smith, SEA at ARI ($26)
While numerous teams are sitting their starting QBs, Seattle doesn't have that luxury, as the Seahawks need a win and a Packers loss to make the postseason. Smith has surged over his last three starts, posting a 6:1 TD:INT through the air and adding a rushing score while averaging 283.7 passing yards per game in that span. With RB Kenneth Walker (shoulder) banged up, Seattle may lean more on the air attack in the must-win game against a Cardinals defense that's allowing the second-most points per game (27.1) after Washington's 30.0. Only the Eagles (35) and Commanders (34) have allowed more passing TDs than Arizona's 30.
Honorable Mentions:
Jalen Hurts, PHI at NYG ($35); Dak Prescott, DAL at WAS ($29); Jordan Love, GB vs. CHI ($27)
Against the Grainers:
Justin Fields, CHI at GB ($30); Kyler Murray, ARI vs. SEA ($27); Tyrod Taylor, NYG vs. PHI ($20)
RUNNING BACK
Rachaad White, TB at CAR ($29)
The Buccaneers' path to the postseason is simple: beat the 2-14 Panthers and you're the NFC South champions. Considering Carolina has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to RBs (1,751) and the most rushing TDs (21) to the position, Tampa Bay was already likely to lean on its running game, and the game plan could be even more run-heavy with QB Baker Mayfield's status uncertain due to a rib injury. White needs 85 yards on the ground to post his first 1,000-yard season, so he'll have plenty of team-related and personal motivation to play well against a Panthers defense that he burned for 18.1 fantasy points a month ago.
Zamir White, LV vs. DEN ($11)
Both of these middling AFC West rivals have been eliminated from playoff contention, but White has a chance to be the best bargain play available in Week 18. With Josh Jacobs (quadriceps) sidelined over the past three games, White has rushed 59 times for 286 yards and a touchdown while catching eight of 11 targets for 51 yards. The second-year RB is auditioning for next year's lead-back role with Jacobs set to hit free agency, and it makes little sense for Jacobs to return for the season finale given that context. White is thus poised to handle another heavy workload against a Broncos defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards (1,901) and is tied for the fourth-most scrimmage TDs (18) allowed to RBs.
Honorable Mentions:
Breece Hall, NYJ at NE ($30); Kenneth Walker, SEA at ARI ($22); Khalil Herbert, CHI at GB ($18)
Against the Grainers:
Travis Etienne, JAC at TEN ($25); Aaron Jones, GB vs. CHI ($20); Jordan Mason, SF vs. LAR ($10)
WIDE RECEIVER
CeeDee Lamb, DAL at WAS ($39)
The Cowboys would clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a win, so Lamb should be all systems go, at least as long as this game is competitive. Considering Dallas is just 3-5 on the road, it could be competitive well into the second half, which should give Lamb plenty of time to exploit a Washington secondary that has allowed the most yards (3,021) and second-most TDs (25) to WRs. Lamb doesn't come cheap, but he has been worth paying up for lately and is coming off a 227-yard performance with a TD. Overall, he leads the league with 122 catches, ranks second with 1,651 receiving yards (only 66 behind Tyreek Hill) and is tied for third with 10 receiving TDs.
Justin Jefferson, MIN at DET ($29)
Jefferson came into the season as the consensus WR1 and top-two player in fantasy alongside Christian McCaffrey. The star WR has failed to live up to that billing, as injuries have afflicted both him and Minnesota's QB room, but Jefferson has a nice opportunity to finish on a high note against a Lions secondary that just allowed the aforementioned 227-yard performance to Lamb last week. Minnesota has reinstalled Nick Mullens under center, and Mullens has thrown for 714 yards over his previous two starts. Jefferson accounted for 225 of those, including 141 yards and a TD against Detroit in Week 16. Take advantage of this rare opportunity to grab Jefferson for less than $30, as his valuation is likely to balloon to $35-plus again next season, which is where it has been for the majority of this campaign.
Calvin Ridley, JAC at TEN ($22)
The Jaguars have a Week 18 win-and-in scenario against the Titans for the second consecutive season, so starting QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) will do all he can to suit up. Ridley had 90 yards and two TDs in the last game that Lawrence played, and while the wideout has been boom-or-bust in his first year with Jacksonville, Ridley has drawn at least eight targets 11 times this season. He should remain busy against a Tennessee secondary that has allowed 2,818 receiving yards to WRs, which is sixth most in the NFL.
Honorable Mentions:
A.J. Brown, PHI at NYG ($28); DK Metcalf, SEA at ARI ($27); Darius Slayton, NYG vs. PHI ($11)
Against the Grainers:
Davante Adams, LV vs. DEN ($24); Jayden Reed, GB vs. CHI ($20); Adam Thielen, CAR vs. TB ($16)
TIGHT END
Darren Waller, NYG vs. PHI ($15)
Philadelphia has been in free fall recently, and most of the blame belongs to the defense. Over the last six games, the Eagles have allowed 31.5 PPG. Waller has been limited by a hamstring injury for much of his first season with the Giants, but he has suited up for each of the last three games, so the veteran tight end should have more confidence in his body heading into the final game of the season. There is an out in his contract this offseason, so the two-time 1,100-yard receiver will look to bolster his case for staying in New York by finishing on a high note against an Eagles defense that has allowed more catches (84), yards (835) and touchdowns (six) to TEs than league average.
Honorable Mentions:
Trey McBride, ARI vs. SEA ($23); Tucker Kraft, GB vs. CHI ($16); Juwan Johnson, NO vs. ATL ($14)
Against the Grainers:
Evan Engram, JAC at TEN ($21); Dallas Goedert, PHI at NYG ($18); Austin Hooper, LV vs. DEN ($10)
DEFENSE
New Orleans Saints vs. ATL ($15)
The Saints are fighting an uphill battle to make the postseason, but they still have a shot at both the NFC South title and a wild card with a win and some help. This unit will thus be highly motivated to take care of business against an Atlanta offense that has been putrid on the road. The Falcons have gone 2-6 on the road while averaging just 14.0 PPG, and six of the eight D/ST units to host the Falcons have scored at least 8.0 fantasy points. The Saints D/ST has posted at least 14.0 fantasy points in three of its last four games, and Atlanta's offense could be limited even further by QB Taylor Heinicke's ankle injury.
Honorable Mentions:
Dallas Cowboys at WAS ($20); New England Patriots vs. NYJ ($15); Tampa Bay Buccaneers at CAR ($15)
Against the Grainers:
New York Jets at NE ($17); Philadelphia Eagles at NYG ($15); Chicago Bears at GB ($14)
